How can I create relatively accurate sales forecasts and pricing for my membership based website?

Wow… none, really. Have you done any small sample market surveys of your own? Have you just started or do you have any sales history to draw trends on?

Aren’t you reinventing the wheel a bit here?

Do you have any idea what competitors charge for similar products? Who are your target market have you interviewed any of them as to what they have paid in the past, or what they would be willing to pay in the future? When you ask how much they would be willing to pay, you will get a few that give you something low but it’s suprising how many will give you straight answers and if you have a large enough sample you will start to see patterns. Make detailed accounts (with all the pertinent factors) or the three closest competitors. There’s a start. If you have any more direct questions you can message me directly.

Without a well conducted market study or inside knowledge of competitive sites, you can’t accurately predict sales. Whatever you write in your business plan is likely to be mere wishful thinking, and be viewed as such by potential investors. If it’s all self financed and you are confident enough to roll the dice, do a minimal market study (read up on it if you aren’t sure how that’s done). But if you want to put it before venture capitalists you are either going to have to do a rock-solid study that’s scientifically designed or better still hire an expert market research firm who’s credibility the investors will accept.

Thanks for the advice. We have conducting small market surveys, done focus groups and researched competitive sites. This market is very broad in offerings, business models and pricing. Your answers help me know I’m on the right track.

All good advice, but the best way for your to predict the future is to extrapolate the past. You need to start selling, and figure out your ROI on marketing and advertising, your conversion rate, and all your other marketing metrics and go from there. Before you have started selling any ‘projections’ will be very suspect, even from within the industry. If you need to make projections for a financial model, make your best guess, then cut it in half….