# Which of these wagers would you be most comfortable making?

Asked by YoKoolAid (2388 ) June 11th, 2012

I have 3 sets of dice giving different odds. Let’s say once a week for the rest of the year a portion of your paycheck will be taken out and granted to a forest elf named Griffy. Which set of dice do you wish Griffy to roll? (all profits return to you)

A. Risk \$10 – with a 31% chance of making a profit of \$20
B. Risk \$20 – with a 47% chance of making a profit of \$20
C. Risk \$40 – with a 63% chance of making a profit of \$20

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

## 16 Answers

C

zensky (13222 )

I’ll take C, thank you very much.

thorninmud (15146 )

Third “C”

Tropical_Willie (14224 )

A, please.

flutherother (19430 )

C. That is rather a silly question.

Are you studying risk assessment, by any chance?

cazzie (17113 )

Mathematical analysis time!

Option A-
69% lose \$10
31% gain \$20
Expected profit-
0.69*(-10) + 0.31*(20) = -\$0.70

Option B-
53% lose \$20
47% gain \$20
Expected profit-
0.53*(-20) + 0.47*(20) = -\$1.20

Option C-
37% lose \$40
63% gain \$20
Expected profit-
0.37*(-40) + 0.63*(20) = -\$2.20

I would choose option A.

PhiNotPi (9830 )

This explains why I stay away from forest elves.

thorninmud (15146 )

I know that I go big or go home…..

cazzie (17113 )

Once again, I’m glad to be a sailor.

CWOTUS (16791 )

A. I’m not one much for gambling and \$40 is a lot of money to me at this point in my life.

hug_of_war (8128 )

C.

I’m a risk taker, and if you’re going to risk, risk big I say!

Coloma (34764 )

Hmmm. i used math too but got a different answer. Why?
Normalize them all to a 10 bet and multiply the odds of winning x the payoff.
A 31% x 20 = 6.20
B 47% x 10 = 4.70
C 63% x 5 = 3.15

Now subtract the losing side.
A 69 % x 10 = 6.90
B 53% x 10 = 5.30
C 37% x10 = 3.70

A= 6.20–6.90 = -0.70
B=4.70–530= -0.80
C = 3.15 -3.70=.-0.55

C is best.
All best are negative.
As Joshua said “What a strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”

LuckyGuy (25452 )

I know why we got different answers. You calculated which choice is fairest (smallest house edge). I calculated which was the best in terms of total losses with the given bet size. Even though C may have the smallest house edge, you lose more money in the end because you are forced to bet more.

PhiNotPi (9830 )

@PhiNotPi Yep. I agree with your analysis. My method showed which bet was the best rate of return. But that was not the question. The OP wants to know which of the 3 bets to pick. Your answer is correct.

LuckyGuy (25452 )

If I had \$40 to bet, would go with four \$10 wagers over one \$40 wager.

But given my past history with elves, I would whack Griffy over the head with a cold iron mace and take his or her dice.

WestRiverrat (18660 )

A

JLeslie (42231 )

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