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zingz's avatar

47 out of 52 of my classmates survive to age 74. What are the odds?

Asked by zingz (41points) September 22nd, 2012

There were 52 people in my high school graduating class. 47 of us survive. I think this is very rare. Is there a way I can find the odds of this happening? I am 74 years old.

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14 Answers

zensky's avatar

Welcome to Fluther.

Someone will be along shortly with the stats on that.

zingz's avatar

I will appreciate it very much. We have a class reunion tonight.

Kayak8's avatar

As an epidemiologist (who doesn’t have time to look up the tables), I would assert that with no other information available to me, it is very likely your class was comprised of more females than males and that the class was 100% white.

And welcome to Fluther.

gailcalled's avatar

Where do you all live? Off the pristine coast of Norway, or in the area of Bulgaria where everyone eats probiotic yogurt and lives to 112? That would skew the odds.

In my HS class, of the same vintage, we have lost 50 someodd out of c. 200. (and there are a few MIA).

Have fun; at our age the stats may easily change by Sunday.

marinelife's avatar

Here is one statistic:

Life Expectancy
Male Female
At birth 74.0 79.4

Source

zingz's avatar

We lived in a small town in central Louisiana and we are all white. I think there is an even distribution of boys vs girls. Thanks for any help.

gondwanalon's avatar

Wow your high school class must be doing something right and or be very lucky. Only 10% of your class has died at age 74.

My high school classmates are turning 60 years old this year. My class size was 247 and as of last year 37 have died (15% of the class). My high school location is in L.A. County, California.

Good health to you and your class!

Pandora's avatar

That is a 90.38% survival rate. Pretty awesome. But don’t over do the celebrating yet. The men are at their peak of life expectancy and the women only have about 5 years extra to burn .
Some guy may not make it out of the party alive. :)
Nah, celebrate. It may be someones last.

gailcalled's avatar

@zingz: Was the diet a typical po’ boy, étoufée and gumbo or were you eating lots of kale and cruciferous veggies?

Did you all have, in general, a stress-free childhood? Certainly, growing up in LA. in the forties and fifties was generally fraught with racial issues and tensions.

This is an interesting question. What tipped the scales, I wonder, in your small sub-population?

Pandora's avatar

@gailcalled I must admit that I am curious as well but one would also have to consider environmental factors. I lived in a small town in N.C. and a small fishing town seems to have a higher concentration of cancer patients. Now it could be because they also have more retirees but it could also be they eat more of the local fish.

Jeruba's avatar

Wow, I haven’t the least idea what the stats are on my class of 510. I know that one girl died right after graduation, and of the rest I haven’t a clue. I never even thought of asking. The few that I’m in touch with are still alive . . .

Kayak8's avatar

@Jeruba LOL on the few you are still in touch with! No wonder you don’t answer the psychic questions! :-)

zingz's avatar

@gailcalled: We lived north of Alexandria which is generally the dividing line between Cajun and non Cajun country. So we are not Cajun and our diet likely was very similar to yours. Growing up in the 40’s and 50’s was indeed generally stress free compared to now. FYI, there were absolutely no racial issues or strife. Everyone got along with their neighbors.

I have no idea what tipped the scales but it is quite glaring, isn’t it. I went to the 55th reunion tonight and there were 42 of us there in quite good health. Old geezers all. LOL.

I pointed out our statistical good fortune to the group, but no one seemed to have any idea why we have fared so well. Actually I am pretty amazed. Any thoughts from the group will be appreciated.

Jeruba's avatar

42 out of 47 went to a reunion? I think that is even more amazing.

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