Social Question

wundayatta's avatar

Do you have any post election thoughts you want to get off your chest?

Asked by wundayatta (58349 points ) November 7th, 2012

Why did Obama win? What does this mean for partisanship and/or cooperation in dealing with the “fiscal cliff?” What is the significance of these demographic changes for Republicans? Will the Republican party change at all in response to this result?

How did the pundits do? When Republicans were claiming them could win early last night, did they really believe it? Or were they in denial?

The role of money? Democrats spent more than Republicans, even including the money of the billionaires. Does that surprise you? Are you less worried about the role of money now?

Marco Rubio? Chris Christie? Who are the rising Republican stars? Who are the rising Democrat stars?

Whatever else you feel like talking about. What are your feelings in the wake of this election?

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49 Answers

tom_g's avatar

Nate Silver’s 538 blog kept me (somewhat) sane through the whole thing. It’s nice to see that he nailed it. Data works, apparently.

JLeslie's avatar

I think Christie will be a rising star if the Republicans decide going moderate is better.

Being down here in the bible belt I am so confused. So many of the Republicans around me have been saying it is all about the economy, trying to convince us Democrats that it is all about the economy, but they fail to see if they just let go of the social issues, go along with gay marriage and leave the laws alone regarding abortion, and not say things that sound antiwomen, that then they could focus on fiscal issues. Still, many liberals completely disagree on the Republican ideas regarding fiscal issues, but many Democrats and Independents are open to something being done to set the country on a better track to reduce the debt and rev the economy and changes in export import laws and tariffs. We could have a real conversation about the fiscal issues if the Republicans would just let the social issues be a nonissues.

I don’t think they can do it. I don’t think the current base of the republican party can let go of the social issues, and so they will continue to have problems in the party. The base becomes a larger and larger percentage of the party I think, as the more rational people break away as Independents and becoming Democrats, so also are more Libertarian. Using the rational probably sounds offensive to some, I do believe there are many rational people who are Republicans, probably about half the people in the party, but they are gettng drowned out.

Ann Coulter likes Christie, if Limbaugh also jumps on that bandwagon maybe he, or someone similar to him, has a chance. Other Republicans might follow along.

wonderingwhy's avatar

I don’t think R’s will change much initially, they did well in the House and have a year or more to stonewall and see how the public as a whole and the independent & left-center electorate responds – that will be the pivot for them.

I’ll be curious to see if they’re willing to stonewall so far as to jump from the cliff, knowing that it will tank a lot of their own interests, in hopes of being able to point and shout “I told you so”. I personally don’t think they will, it’s too much of a risk with the D’s winning the Senate and popular vote, and if the D’s navigate the wreckage well it’s one that could come back to haunt the R’s in two years.

The role of money, where it comes from, and how it’s accounted is egregious. I don’t care who won, the way this is handled today needs to change.

Here’s hoping Obama gets three more supreme court picks, preferably replacing Scalia and putting in at least two hard left idealists.

I’m also curious to see if Obama heads more left and negotiates less and now that he’s not thinking reelection. I don’t agree with all his policies but generally he’s moving in what I think is the right direction, let’s see if he can stop taking baby steps and make a few big strides in spite of the House.

_Whitetigress's avatar

You asked: “Will the Republican party change at all in response to this result?”

They literally need to. In 2012, the party went too far to the right for this campaign.They seemed, “cult” like in standing up for their “beliefs” (which I think of as oppression). I hope this was a wake up call to the Republican party. They need to know that people are now becoming educated vs sticking to the strawberry picking of the Bible. They need to become open minded to social reform.

Qingu's avatar

Christie will never be president. He’s horrendously obese—telegenics matters—and he’s too rude for women voters to like him. Assuming he could survive the GOP primary in the first place (a long shot) he’d also have trouble with the base because he’s a traitor, praising Obama when the chips are down, etc.

I have no idea what will happen to the GOP but I look forward to watching the fireworks.

We have better Democrats in Congress now, so I am also looking forward to seeing feathers fly on CSPAN when people like Grayson and Warren call bullshit on the GOP.

gondwanalon's avatar

Monica Crowly said it best for me, “It is profoundly disturbing to watch a once-great power commit suicide in real time”.

jaytkay's avatar

Nate did well, but others did better.

??

Better than than the exact number?

wundayatta's avatar

@jaytkay Did you check the link? According to Slate’s reckoning, Nate didn’t get the exact number. Josh Putnam of Davidson College did better.

gailcalled's avatar

I hated being barraged with robocalls daily and recently, what seemed like hourly.

I disliked the avalanche of mail that repeated itself.

I loathed the TV spots that were not substantive but attacking.

majorrich's avatar

Aah.. the phone hasn’t rung all morning!

wundayatta's avatar

I heard folks on NPR talking this morning about what will happen with the fiscal cliff. One commentator said that one thing that might happen is that they let us fall over the fiscall cliff. This will institute automatic tax increases and program cuts.

A week or a month later, Congress will act, cutting taxes and increasing spending. In this way, the net result will be higher taxes and lower spending, but everyone can take credit for tax cuts and spending increases.

It is an incredibly cynical point of view, it seems to me, and yet, as a colleague of mine asked, “What’s the alternative?”

The alternative, I pointed out, is non-partisan cooperation.

We looked at each other for a a second, and then we both shook our heads, saying, “Nooooo!”

So, the cynical view is Alice in Wonderland. Tax hikes are tax cuts, and spending increases are spending decreases. Ain’t life wonderful?

SpatzieLover's avatar

ABC analyst Matt Dowd mocked the GOP as a Mad Men party in a Modern Family America. <—That has been my exact sentiment from the beginning of the election season. The Republican party, IMO, is completely out of touch with current society.

This same pundit said that Obama’s campaign set the bar for how all campaigns of the future will be led. Campaigners used online information about Independent voters, and went individually door to door to talk to Independents. He felt it what what put Obama over in this election.

tom_g's avatar

@wundayatta: “Did you check the link? According to Slate’s reckoning, Nate didn’t get the exact number. Josh Putnam of Davidson College did better.”

?? Your link shows Josh and Nate sitting in the bulls eye together.

wundayatta's avatar

@tom_g You are right. I assure you, that a previous iteration showed things differently. It must have been updated. How odd. I must say, I was a little surprised by the first result, but I’m glad it has been corrected.

Ron_C's avatar

There are 5 traitors on the supreme court. They made corporations people and money speech instead of property.

Hopefully Obama won’t work too hard to “reach across the isle” to people that would rather kill him than help improve our country.

The progressive side of the Senate just got bigger. If the house remains obstructionist, there’s a good chance it will be lost.

We need an infrastructure rebuild, prosecution of crooked bank managers and a return to the firewall between investment and commercial banks. We need to get rid of the Reagan Tax cuts and return to a country where big companies are run by honest men and where no one makes a career out of being a senator or congress man. Unfortunately I see Obama doing very little of this. Of course, Romney would have went the opposite way and we would be an unrecognizable fascist country in just a few years. Of course Social security and Medicare wouldn’t be broke because all of the people that needed the programs would be dead and the middle class would be just a memory.

mazingerz88's avatar

Obama won because even those who probably did not have the enthusiasm for Obama anymore still went out and voted for him. Reason is, they dislike the fact that Republicans hate Obama to the core.

Obama did lose a lot of independent votes. No surprise. The economy is still sluggish. Not everybody understands how the economy works and people by nature are impatient. But luckily, the loss of independent votes got offset by Hispanic and Latino votes and energized black votes.

What would happen now? Boehner, McConnel and their cohorts would continue their obstructionist methods. They may even do worse. They think the American people giving them dominance over the House gives them the right to obstruct. They will succeed. Unless Americans give Dems more seats.

The Republicans will not have any real rising stars unless they embrace all demographics in the country. They have to be sincere. Americans can sense hate in politicians no matter how they paint themselves as just being sensible and pragmatic.

Coloma's avatar

I’m just happy that my militant anti Romney neighbors took down all their home made Romney is a dirtbag posters that have been a blight on my mountain for the last 2 months. It was a joy to turn the corner onto my road yesterday and not be assaulted with their jargon.
I am also thrilled that Wash. state and Colorado have legalized marijuana. C’mon California, you’re losing your liberal grip.

SpatzieLover's avatar

Tammy Baldwin’s win has taken me over the moon!

I’m thrilled Wisconsin has made history in this arena.
My hope: The win is perspective altering for those thinking the Midwest is in the Dark Ages.

JLeslie's avatar

I have a new thought on this matter and was not sure whether to write a separate question. I see a lot of liberals on TV today and on FB who are saying the Republicans will have to get a clue that the country is moving to be more liberal. They are throwing around stats, but what about the popular vote stat? The popuar vote was very close. Almost half the population supported Romney. That does not demonstrate some sort of lesson making shift I don’t think.

Now, there were some proposals that were voted on in various states that passed like gay marriage and egalizing marijuana that seem like a liberal shift, but as far as the office of President, I would think the right wingers and Republicans could easiy talk themselves into believing they just lost by a little bit and need to be more strategic in certain states, but not internalize this election as a reason to make a huge change.

I think there have been times where a democrat won a lot of states, including some southern states, like Clinton, and then later they won with Bush. So, they may just sit back and wait thinking the pendulum will swing again.

@Coloma That is awful. Romney is a dirtbag. I find signs like that so offensive from either party.

SpatzieLover's avatar

@JLeslie The reason the talk is that the Country has shifted is due to the electoral college voting shift. As you know, the EC was traditionally for Republicans. It is clear that is no longer the case.

Also when you break down the minority vote, the Republicans lost by epic proportions.

Qingu's avatar

@mazingerz88, Obama did lose some independents, but other independents he never had… many independents are actually just former Republicans who call themselves “independents” nowadays because the Republican brand is so toxic.

gailcalled's avatar

A young friend of mine who was running for Town Justice lost by 21 votes. That is a heartbreaker…1219 registered voters.

JLeslie's avatar

@SpatzieLover Yes, I understand all that, but the Republicans can choose to focus on other statistics. See and believe what they prefer to see and believe. It’s just like Republicans focusing on what they feel were important economic issues, and the democrats focusing on women’s rights in the messages they were trying hardest to get through to the average people. Whether it is true that the Republicans would be misguided in looking at the popular vote being close is not the issue, I am only commenting on how they want to see it, to reinforce their already existing beliefs about the political issues.

A friend of mine wrote on her facebook (an actual friend of mine, not simply a facebook friend) that she is changing her profile pic to the Christian Flag and wrote ”...her focus should not be that she is an American but a citizen of Heaven…” something like that I will get the exact quote and edit, because I have been having trouble losing my posts when I close fluther and come back. I think she will be happy to believe anything that reinforces her belief that following her belief in God and what is right and how that translates to politics is actually valid and correct.

Ok, here is the whole quote:

Today I have changed my profile pic to the Christian Flag. As I was thinking about the election results from last night I realized that my focus should not be that I am an American, but that my citizenship is in Heaven. I am proud to be a Texan, grateful to be an American, but blessed beyond measure to be a child of THE KING OF KINGS and LORD OF LORDS. It is Him I serve and I will put my trust in Him. His will alone will ultimately be accomplished. He will not disappoint, will always be trustworthy and faithful, and will always be holy. Nations will rise and fall but He will always remain on the throne. If you are disappointed, put your trust in the one who never disappoints and will guide you through any circumstance in life. Christians, it is time to stand up and be a reflection of the love of Christ and act out our faith.

what do you think about that? Do you think they care that many people in America think gay marriage is ok? Or, that there are a lot of Hispanics in the country now?

Sunny2's avatar

All that money spent on the election! Think about what else they might have done with it.

SpatzieLover's avatar

^^^I always do @Sunny2. It sickens me to think we could end the WORLDS potable water crisis if we just funneled this money to one cause.

Qingu's avatar

@JLeslie, I wonder what your friend’s god was thinking when he got Obama re-elected.

Oh, I know. Must be a test of faith.

zenvelo's avatar

One of the reasons that the shift of the electorate was significant was that given the economic numbers alone would have predicted an Obama loss by 5%. It has nothing to do with what he has or has not done, but more of the history of incumbents in a down economy usually losing.

And, thirty years ago, the white vote going heavily to Romney and the Black and Hispanic vote not being significant enough, Romney would have swept. But Blacks and Latinos are much more influential now, and the Republicans went out of their way to alienate women. So the fact that the popular vote is close shows that Republicans no longer have enough of a base to count on to carry them over the top.

JLeslie's avatar

@Qingu I had the same initial thought. I also thought that she would never do something violent or be part of a riot. That her dissappointment would not turn into extreme dangerous hatred. Believing it is in God’s hands makes us all safer I think.

@Sunny2 @SpatzieLover I have been saying the same for months. The money makes me sick. I typically do not give money to political candidates.

Qingu's avatar

@zenvelo, actually, if I recall correctly, Nate Silver argued that the economic numbers would have Obama narrowly winning re-election. Voters don’t necessarily respond to the raw unemployment rate figure as much as the general direction the economy is moving, and as long as you’re over +150k jobs per month, the historical data favors the incumbent.

PhiNotPi's avatar

I was watching Nate Silver’s blog and I thought it was pretty awesome when he predicted everything perfectly.

rojo's avatar

@Qingu My d-i-l actually expressed the test of faith belief this morning.

rojo's avatar

I noticed on CNN, NBC, etc the Republican pundits were saying that that party needed to adjust to the new reality but on Fox one of their guys (don’t know his name but he looks like the cryptkeeper) was saying that they lost because they were not conservative enough. Evidently, Fox still has trouble with the concept of reality.

jaytkay's avatar

Today I have changed my profile pic to the Christian Flag. As I was thinking about the election results from last night I realized that my focus should not be that I am an American, but that my citizenship is in Heaven.

Good to see conservatives come to the realization they hate America.

It’s been obvious to normal people for a long time.,

Seek's avatar

@QinguI wonder what your friend’s god was thinking when he got Obama re-elected.”

God can have a say in American politics when he starts paying taxes.

Qingu's avatar

@rojo, cryptkeeper? I’m guessing ol’ Krauthammer.

If there was a god, Charles Krauthammer would be torn apart by wolves.

rojo's avatar

@Qingu and sh*t over a cliff!

rojo's avatar

Now that the election is over, To quote Marvin, the paranoid android:

“All right crew, let’s settle down shall we?
Let’s get on with the business of flying a spaceship.”

SpatzieLover's avatar

Results are in & Paul Ryan’s win didn’t even come from his Ward of Janesville. Hilarious to me that he was chosen as a Veep running mate.

You’d think the Koch brothers could afford some strategists for the party they’re controlling.

Qingu's avatar

@SpatzieLover, what strategy would have worked better? The GOP doesn’t have many options. They can tack to the right and nominate a Tea Partier, which is repulsive to most Americans. Or they can tack to the center and alienate their own fundamentalist base. Romney did both about as successfully as anyone could hope for. He also worked his ass off. And all things considered he came pretty close.

ucme's avatar

What, there was an election….....no???

Blondesjon's avatar

Now that Obama doesn’t have to worry about getting that second term he can get down to the very serious business of making recreational marijuana legal on the federal level.

way to go washington and colorado. now you other forty-eight need to get on the fucking ball.

KNOWITALL's avatar

As a liberal Republican, my head is still spinning a little bit. I’m not seeing all the promises fulfilled from his first round of speeches 4 years ago, so my hopes aren’t high for the next 4, but I am open to being pleasantly surprised. :)

Reps DO need to learn to let up a little on the religious aspects not completely but enough to say choice is okay (and I’m Pro-Life personally), let up on social issues like SSM/ marijuana, etc… Whether they will remains to be seen.

Would I like to see abortions end, of course I do, but humans are fallible and will always have mistakes they want to correct, so abortion is widely acceptable across the world. We need to move forward, not back, and preferably together.

AmWiser's avatar

Will The Donald finally just go away. His blatant hate for the POTUS probably caused him to provide most of the millions Mitt spent on his campaign. He really makes the republican party look bad.

glacial's avatar

@KNOWITALL Dude, one day I will convince you to call yourself pro-choice! That is a pro-choice stance you have there.

El_Cadejo's avatar

Good job Washington and Colorado. Should be interesting to see how this all plays out.

zenvelo's avatar

I am glad that Sheldon Adelson is now scared to answer the door because he thinks the DOJ is going to arrest him any day now….

Seek's avatar

@KNOWITALL This is my favourite post you’ve ever written. Seriously.

Personal pro-life, philosophical pro-choice. That’s a stance I can wholeheartedly respect.

KNOWITALL's avatar

Yeah glacial, what Seek said! :) I’m so scared of childbirth I don’t take those risks…it freaks me out just talking about it. They shouldn’t have showed us those films in hs health class…lol

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