How long before there is a viable fully electric, tractor trailer and what would that mean for the petro industry?

It will never happen. The batteries required to transport cargo long distances would fill the trailer (displacing any and all cargo) and take forever to recharge. Diesel was, is, and will be the power in trucks. Any one who thinks electric power will work in heavy-duty trucks is dreaming!

@kritiper I disagree. All that needs to happen is we exchange batteries on the trucks when dropping off and picking up loads. It also does not take that much space when you have a whole truck. 15–20% of the space. We had the technology 50 years ago. I was driving fork trucks around 20 years ago and only needed to swap batteries once a shift (about every 12 hours) they hauled quite a bit too. Today we can build trucking systems that have charging built into stretches of roadway with battery backup when the trucks are off the interstate. We can do this now and I think it will happen once trucking becomes automated. Probably within the next 30–40 years.

@kritiper It will never happen. The batteries required to transport cargo long distances would fill the trailer (displacing any and all cargo) and take forever to recharge.
With all the talk that you get more torque from an electric engine and the advances that has been made (and maybe still being made as we speak) battery power can increase while the size goes down. Look at the battery in cell phones, I am sure years back someone would have said cell phones would be impractical because of you based it on regular carbon batteries like those in flashlights, you would have been out of power in 5–8 hours (if not less), and that would be hardly using it.

That depends on lobbyists far more than on scientists.

In truth, it would probably involve quick-swap batteries though. A Tesla Model S can replace the battery in about the time it takes a regular car to fill a gas tank; under 5 minutes. Of course, the scientifically-illiterate masses have no idea that such a thing is even conceivable, and of the few who do, many think it impossible despite it actually existing.

So basically, as long as we are stupid and corrupt, it’ll NEVER happen. At least never, ever, ever in teh US, not even centuries after the rest of the world has done it.

@kritiper The same was said of gas/diesel cars over a century ago when EVs outnumbered combustion engines.

@jerv Of course, the scientifically-illiterate masses have no idea that such a thing is even conceivable, and of the few who do, many think it impossible despite it actually existing.
How could they NOT know, would not some of them had to be involve if it exist? Someone had to discover or invent the process. I can see the petro lobby trying to thwart it but eventually of people get fed up enough about being rooked by Big Oil, the market will demand it, then how would they stop it?

Well, @Hypocrisy_Central, the people who designed that system are engineers from Tesla; most average people are not engineers at all even at a hobbyist level, the few who are are usually not that type of engineer, and most of the people who are that type of engineer work for someone other than Tesla.

Then again, it’s not like many people are interested. Elon Musk is not Steve Jobs, so it’s not like he could piss on your leg, tell you it’s raining, and get you to pay him vast sums of money for the privilege, so the only people who know about the Model S’ quick-swap battery are people who are well above-average in curiosity; tech geeks and those who are actually in the market for a $80–130k car.

Also, the idea isn’t new. I saw it in magazines like Popular Mechanics ~30 years ago, and there were some radio control endurance race cars that used a similar system to swap batteries in seconds without having to remove the body work. Big Oil can’t really nix the idea unless they manage to patent every possible way such a system could work. Given how much Tesla intellectual property is either open source or not for sale by Tesla, it’d be hard. And while it’s easy for Big Oil to bully small competitors and those who are profit-minded, it’s a little harder to intimidate a multi-billionaire with an agenda that specifically and explicitly includes not taking shit from Big Oil.

FYI, the last time EVs showed signs of popularity (the 1990s), GM took back leased EV1s over the protests of those who leased them and crushed them all, Chevron bought up the patents for large-format NiMH batteries, and Toyota had to suck Chevron’s dick to get a deal for replacement batters for the Rav4 EV; a deal which I believe was also contingent on Toyota ceasing production of them. NiMH batteries are cheaper than the Lithium batteries that many current EVs and hybrids use, had enough energy density to store a usable amount of charge in a reasonably small/light battery, and were actually a bit better in durability, longevity and safety than Lithium, so that move set EVs back decades.

Fuck you, Chevron!

Electric trucks would not work for long haul drives that would span 10 hours for a single driver, or 20 hours for a team of drivers, or for a local delivery company that runs three 8 hour shifts on a single vehicle.
For vehicles that might have a life of over 1 million miles, there would be, and are, major wear of components, including electrical wiring. I saw a diesel truck and it’s owner once, and this truck had over 4 million miles on it! Electrical fires are fast, hot, and FURIOUS! We will see more of this as time goes on and more electric cars find their way onto the roads.
Cost efficiency (and lighter weight = more cargo hauled) is the one major plus of diesel trucks that puts it’s practicality far above electric!

@kritiper Comparing the energy density of diesel fuel to the cost of electricity, along with the efficiency with which they each turn that into movement, I’d have to disagree. If you have time to fill those huge, honking tanks on each side of the tractor, you have enough time to swap batteries… multiple times.

While EVs wear out electrical components, so do diesel engines. Overall maintenance costs are actual pretty low; much of the cost is upfront. There is also the cost of changing over, and some are just unable to make that sort of investment no matter how great the benefits are.

Regarding fires, diesel is harder to ignite, but when if does, it’s pretty nasty. As a member of Engineering department on a couple of DFM-burning ships, I can safely say that diesel fires are more brutal than you imply. On the other hand, electrical fires often self-extinguish once power is removed. Every USN sailor knows that; SOP for a Class Charlie (electrical) fire is to have the electrician secure power first, at which point either it stops burning or, in a few cases, becomes just a Class Alpha (insulation fire) that can safely be sprayed with water without electrocuting the hose team.

Battery fires are no joke either, but the only reason battery fires seem worse is that most firefighters are improperly trained. The techniques and agents involved are different, and in some cases doing what would work on a Class Bravo (flammable liquid) fire actually make things worse and more dangerous than treating it as a Class Charlie to begin with. And you can’t really fault them either since the majority of cars on the road are fuel-burners that lack the huge batteries of hybrids or EVs. When they see a car on fire, they instinctively think that it’s a gas/diesel vehicle and act accordingly; their impulsive urge to get the fire out ASAP overrides that little voice in the back of their head saying, “This might be an electrical fire.”. Also, the fact that we’ve gone away from Lithium-Cobalt batteries in favor of battery chemistries that are not self-oxidizing helps.

Cost efficiency is a major concern, but comparing the cost of electricity to the cost of diesel fuel shows that electrics actually come out ahead in most places. One gallon of diesel is 38 kwh; assuming electrical rates of 10 cents per kilowatt hour, that’s $3.80/gallon… until you account for the fact that electric is generally twice as efficient as diesel and 3–4 times as efficient as gas. In other words, 38 kwh worth of electricity will do as much as 70–80 kwh (about two gallons) worth of diesel.

It’s pretty much the upfront changeover costs that make diesel even close to cost-competitive so long as diesel is much above about $2.50/gallon. And looking at the cost of the battery that allows a Tesla to have the same range as a comparable gas-burner, that conversion cost is a valid criticism. However, as battery technology advanced, costs will continue to come down, as will battery weight.

Oh, and don’t forget that an electric vehicle isn’t a regular vehicle with a bunch of batteries in the trunk. Ditching the engine block and fuel tanks frees up hundreds of pounds on a car and tons on an 18-wheeler. You probably won’t need a transmission either; more weight savings!

About that 4-million-mile truck… I somehow suspect that at least once during that time it had the engine either replaced or totally rebuilt. Neither are cheap, and considering how many people/companies opt for rebuild over replacement despite the high cost of getting diesel mechanics to even touch the thing, I suspect that he has more money into that rig that you’re letting on.

@jerv However, as battery technology advanced, costs will continue to come down, as will battery weight.
That was sort of the thinking I had, when I think of all the things in which batteries became smaller, with more power, and cheaper. I remember when I first used a Sony Batamax the thing weighed a ton, and the recorder was separate from the camera and was as large as luggage. Now you can record better video on your phone or a camcorder and get 4 times the battery life the two hours got you on a full charge with a Batamax as big as they were. Maybe today a battery suitable to run a tractor trailer might not really exist that would be commercially viable, but I am thinking in the next 25–50 years it will. It has only been about 30 good years since computers got out of the institution into the hands of John Q and it has gone from this huge piece of electronics to something you can put in a backpack, briefcase, and in some cases, a large purse

@Hypocrisy_Central When I was a teen and into radio-control cars, the standard battery pack was a 6-cell NiCad pack that was rated at 7.2 Volts and 1.2 Amp-hours (1200mah). Then along came a new manufacturing technique that allowed for 1700mah capacity; nearly 50% longer life between charges with no increase in size or weight. They cost a little more…. for a while.

Once battery makers got the hang of it, the improved cells could be produced just as cheaply as the old ones, so prices came down to parity making the old-tech model obsolete and pushing them off the shelves. By that time though, there were 2400mah NiCad packs, but those did cost a bit more… until…

Well, there is a lot of intermediate stuff, but you can now pick up a 6-cell 7.2 volt pack the exact same size and weight with 3000mah for half the price I used to pay for the 1200mah. Or you can pony up the cash for LiPo packs the same size/weight that packs 5000mah of 11.1 volt power. And it’s not as much cash as it used to be either; costs are coming down.

And that’s how the cycle goes.

@jerv Thanks for your input. I needn’t go on any further as to how and why it wouldn’t be feasible since you have done it for me so very well. As I said before, any one who thinks electric power will work in heavy duty trucks is dreaming.

@kritiper Well, anyone who sees it any time soon is, yes. The reasons you list are why. I just think that there is a huge difference between “not for a while” and “never”, that’s all. We still have a long way to go, but it was once thought that heavier-than-air flight was just a dream too.

I still don’t foresee a fleet conversion happening in my lifetime though, largely for commercial reasons than technological ones. It will probably be decades before energy densities rise and prices drop enough to make the cost of switching over low enough that it’s feasible for those who deal with fleets of haulers to go electric. Things that drive up the price of a rig by even $1 can have serious financial repercussions for large companies, so it will be a while. Quite a long while.

But unless humanity screws up pretty big, I think it will happen before the Sun goes red giant on us. To my mind, there is no “if” here, only “when”.

Eight years since this was written and there is still nothing in production. There are a few test trucks and proof-of-concept projects, but large-scale implementation, anywhere, is still a decade or more away.