General Question
What does the word quilt mean in this context?
“At a certain stage of a criminal investigation, the inspector in charge is 60
percent convinced of the quilt of a certain suspect.
a) Suppose now that a new piece of evidence that shows that the criminal has a certain
characteristic (such as hair color, baldness, left-handedness) is uncovered. If 20 percent of
the population possesses this characteristic, how certain of the quilt of the suspect should
the inspector now be if it turns out that the suspect is among the group?
b) Suppose now that a new evidence is subject to a different interpretation, that it is 90
percent likely that the criminal possesses this characteristic. What is the probability that
the suspect is guilty (assuming, as before, that the suspect possess the characteristic)?”
Do they mean the actual, blanket-like object? Or are they talking about something else? If they do mean the blanket, what is the question trying to ask?
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