What do you think Lance Armstrong's chances of winning the TDF are?

AS of the last completed stage lance has narrowly missed the yellow jersey and seems to be finding a comfortable niche at the top of the pack… he’s only 8 seconds of the pace of current yellow jersey bearer Nocentini, and 2 seconds behind his teammate Contador (6 seconds off thepace). Do you foresee any problems on team Astana deciding to back either Contador or Lance in teh team strategy to get one or the other the yellow? Should they back lance for #8 or should the rally behind Contador and have Lance take a back seat?