Social Question

doggywuv's avatar

When will there be world government?

Asked by doggywuv (1041points) August 30th, 2009

I think that a world government is inevitable for humanity. How soon do you think we’ll have one (if we do)?

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43 Answers

dpworkin's avatar

Why do you think it’s inevitable? Everywhere one looks one sees examples of Nationalism, ethnocentrism, tribalism, revanchism and imperialism.

evegrimm's avatar

Depends on who you ask.

Joss Whedon says sometime before 2517.

Orson Scott Card won’t say.

(Sorry, I have no serious answer for you.)

cyn's avatar

never.

ragingloli's avatar

in 2113, 50 years after first contact.

JLeslie's avatar

@ragingloli you took my answer. Actually, I think it is in 2067?

doggywuv's avatar

@pdworkin Because of globalisation. Cultures and ethnicities are becoming mixed with each other, businesses are expanding, there are international bodies that can serve as the framework of a global government (e.g. UN, IMF) as well as unions of countries (e.g. EU) and the Internet.
I think it’s only logical to have an international level of government, along with national, state, and local ones.

ragingloli's avatar

@JLeslie
according to Memory Alpha, it is 2113

dpworkin's avatar

I’d make you a bet, but we’d both be dead long before I won.

wundayatta's avatar

Even if national governments agreed to federate, corporations wouldn’t. Corporations would become as nations are now.

There will never be human unification that includes all however many billion people there are. I also seriously don’t see any kind of world government that has any more power than the United Nations has now. We may cooperate a little better, but even that is a hugely optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on how you look at it) point of view.

In any case, it makes little sense to have world government. Governments are already too big to be very useful for anything except issuing currency, providing military coverage, and maybe some other social support services.

About the only thing we’d need a world government for is to bring together the resources necessary to engage in space exploration.

rebbel's avatar

Can’t see it happen very soon, me.
I can not imagine that there isn’t going to be some kind of veto-right in that global government.
So, it’s gonna be China, USA, Russia, France, Iran, Germany, Luxembourg and the likes blocking important decisions again, i’m afraid.

JLeslie's avatar

I love the idea. Hope it happens. That is as long as the government is a government I agree with. Hmmm?

rebbel's avatar

@daloon That, and fair global food-distrubition.
And solving poverty.
In my opinion.

MrItty's avatar

I think it will happen. But it won’t be peacefully. It won’t be the United Nations just gaining more and more authority. It won’t be NAFTA and the EU and other multi-nation communities merging.

It will be warfare. It will be invasion and takeover. It will be a real-life version of the game Risk.

Sucks. But that’s what I’m pretty sure will happen. Not for a few centuries at least, though. Shame I won’t be around to see if I’m right or not.

JLeslie's avatar

@MrItty I disagree. If it happens that way I think that would mean that a horrible government will be in power in my estimate.

I was talking to a woman from Toronto who has lived in the states for several years. We were talking about Quebec wanting to be theri own country, and she said that if it ever happens she thinks the rest of Canada would become part of teh United States. I had never heard that before. She said it like it is talked about and that many agree.

MrItty's avatar

@JLeslie “I think that would mean that a horrible government will be in power in my estimate.”

Yes. And?

JLeslie's avatar

@MrItty So you think some horrible crazy government is going to take over the world?

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

It would be the worst disaster in human history, no thanks.

dpworkin's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv I sure would like to hear the reasoning behind these flat statements of yours. Do you ever write more than a sentence? How about trying a paragraph, so that we may understand you?

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

I create paragraphs at times.

Ask the moderators. I expressed myself in a paragraph as details of a question they removed regarding Senator Kennedy.

I usually keep the comments short until someone expresses specific interest.

airowDee's avatar

I don’t think it will be soon enough to make a big difference.

cyn's avatar

There are always backstabbers!

Qingu's avatar

I don’t think world government is a binary thing. We’re not going to wake up someday and all the sudden have a world government.

Rather, we’ll progress there naturally as the interests of the world’s countries start to overlap more and more. We are already progressing that way pretty steadily, believe it or not. International law did not exist until recently in history. The Internet has broken down a huge number of boundaries, both cultural/national and economic.

If this trend continues, then a “world government” will probably emerge on a global scale in the same way that the European Union emerged on a continental scale. Different countries will figure that their interests will be better served by joining than by maintaining a stronger sovereignty.

And that’s a good thing. A lot of people associate the term “world government” with “dystopian police state” and assume that it would mean the destruction of all the world’s cultures. But that hasn’t historically happened when individual sovereignties become a part of a broader government, i.e. in Europe or in America. The federal government and the EU both ensure and enforce a lot of human and civil rights that individual sovereign states within their membership might not (and did not historically—see the South).

A lot of my views come from Robert Wright’s book Nonzero, which advocates world government as a natural extension of the general arc of human history where more human beings play “nonzero-sum-games” with each other. Highly recommended if you’re interested in the subject.

wundayatta's avatar

@rebbel I don’t think world government would help solve food issues or poverty. Those have to be solved at the local level. World government won’t be useful for very much. Only things that require the kind of capital that can only be brought together by pooling the resources of the world, or for anything else that can only be done with international cooperation (or global cooperation). I really can’t think of many things that require that kind of cooperation that can only be handled at a level of global bureaucracy.

The larger the organization, the less creatively and less efficiently it can act. The only thing that’s good at a large level is accumulation of capital. It can also create some efficiencies in administrative services, but there is a limit at which the efficiency can only degrade because there is no way to move information around efficiently enough to make good decisions or manage people well.

aprilsimnel's avatar

I don’t think there will ever be a one-world government. The human tendency toward tribalism is, IMO, too entrenched.

MrItty's avatar

@JLeslie yeah, basically. I didn’t say it was an optimistic belief.

YARNLADY's avatar

We will celebrate World Peace Day on my Birthday, January 30, beginning with the first declaration, 2113

Zuma's avatar

We already have a world government in the United Nations. The fact that it is a very weak government==like our own Continental Congress or our own national government before federalism took hold==shouldn’t detract from the fact that it does perform some governmental functions.

The UN does many useful things that some of the smaller member nations have difficulty doing for themselves, like monitoring elections and human rights abuses. It organizes relief efforts, weapons inspections, peacekeeping forces, disaster relief. It also collects comparative statistical information on things like life expectancy, infant mortality, balances of trade, etc., which inspire nations to do better relative to others.

The UN is likely to remain weak so long as it is dominated by a five-member security counsel==China, Russia, France, the UK, and the USA==and a financing system that depends on the voluntary contributions of member states. We, for example, refuse to pay our fair share to protest its bloated and somewhat corrupt bureaucracy, nonetheless we find it useful vehicle for the projecting American power and influence.

Nonetheless, we have found it extraordinarily useful to go through the UN when we want to organize a boycott or embargo of some rogue country, or to sanction our intervention into things like Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. In this respect the UN provides a value legitimation function for nation states, as well as a way for allies to support us with material and moral assistance. It is also one way we can conduct back channel diplomacy with countries we don’t have formal diplomatic relations with, like Iran and North Korea.

Should we ever overcome our financial difficulties and find our way back to the moral high ground so that others once again see us as a credible force for good in the world, we could do ourselves and the world a lot of good by taking a more active leadership role in working through UN to establish peace, prosperity and security. But this would entail coming to terms with certain historical realities.

One of which is the recognition that empires and nation states are no longer viable. Just as the Greek city-states have fallen by the wayside as a viable polity, so too have nation states. The world is simply too economically interdependent for nation states to stand on our own, much less project themselves as empires. If China goes down, we do too. The reason we can not militarily defeat even poor backward countries like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, is that any indigenous people who know the local terrain are defending their homes and their families from conscripts and mercenaries, will sooner or later push the invaders from their soil.

Just as the map of Europe changed in 1871 (when Prussia, Bavaria, Silesia, and Galicia came together to become modern Germany), so too the map of the world is changing. Europe is amalgamating into the European Union. NAFTA was the first step in creating a North American co-prosperity zone. China is already a collection of ethnically and linguistically distinct peoples, and it is only a matter of time before Taiwan, Singapore, and the other satellites of Greater China go the way of Hong Kong. Africa is trying to organize itself into a United States of Africa, and South America is looking to create it’s own co-prosperity zone (if only we would stop interfering).

So, the world is already “chunking” and aggregating into larger units, and there is no reason to believe that once current nation states have been digested and reformed into continental unions, that they could not find sufficient common cause to organize global projects, like a kind of world parliament, sometime in the future. The main impediment to this is the disparity between rich and poor, the developed and undeveloped countries, and traditionalist anti-progress countries, and modern secular and postmodern societies.

Globalization is like a great acid bath to all of this. For example, globalization has moved our manufacturing bases to low wage countries in the third world, in effect, sharing out our technology and leveling our standards of living downward and theirs upward. The consumerism of the modern global economy is dissolving the parochialism of all but the most backward and remote of countries. You can now get a Coke in almost any corner of the world.

Traditionalist societies are getting “progress” whether they want it or not. Unfortunately, a lot of development aid is simply a scam whereby developed countries set up some huge construction project which is set up primarily to enrich the company that does the construction and corrupt local government officials who take bribes to allow them to do it. All too often the dam or whatever is being built doesn’t work, displaces natives from subsistence farming, and saddles the host country with an ecological disaster and a mountain of debt. Policing and remediating this sort of thing on a global basis would be a huge step forward for the developing world and a worthy governmental function.

hiphiphopflipflapflop's avatar

Who says the choice will necessarily be ours (collectively)? ;)

…and one fine day in 2023, the top artificial intelligences employed by Google, the U.S. Federal Reserve, Gazprom, Credit Suisse and USSTRATCOM happened into the same net chatroom together…

evelyns_pet_zebra's avatar

the way things go, it will happen ten years after I am dead. I can live with that, well sort of, you know what I mean, right>!

hiphiphopflipflapflop's avatar

Thinking about it some more, I see it as inevitable once the Davos Man is outsmarted by the AI that can tag along with his wearable computer.

wundayatta's avatar

@hiphiphopflipflapflop Does the reality you live in have a name?

hiphiphopflipflapflop's avatar

@daloon “Connect-the-dots” might be applicable…
Dot 1. “Davos Man” is the modern, very internationist-minded power elite. These are the roughly 6,000 people (predominately male, natch) who have their hands on the levers of influence, energy, production and finance. They compete, but they have overlapping interests.
Dot 2. Moore’s Law. I don’t think I need to unpack this one.
Dot 3. Wearable computer. On the horizon thanks to (2).
Dot 4. Strong AI. OK, I’ve become a bit of a fan of Jeff Hawkins, who says he’s got an angle on this, but for the sake of argument, let’s say he’s got some things wrong. Thanks to (2) a supercomputer around 2015 should be able to do a real-time functional simulation of a human brain. I will go out on a limb a little and predict that soon after this happens, the problem of intelligent thinking (what we can do) vs. rote programed “thinking” (what computers do today) will be cracked and appropriate hardware and software to do the former will soon follow. (2) should still apply to these new machines, and they will increase in power and speed and shrink all at the same time.

Connect these up, and you have members of the power elite wearing computers that start out as PDAs on steroids and gradually come to do more and more of the thinking for them. Those who eschew the technology will find their competitors inside and outside their organization making better decisions faster then they are, so they’re either left behind or will have to scurry to catch up.

When these computers are doing nearly all the thinking, I am betting they will see interesting ways to patch together the overlapping interests and will sell their owners on these schemes.

Zuma's avatar

@hiphiphopflipflapflop As someone who has developed decision support systems, I can tell you that while conceivable, the sort of system you envision will not be very feasible in the short run. There are some inherent problems.

The fastest and most powerful system in the world is not going to confer much of an advantage if the decisions it makes are wrong. Any such AI system is going to have a very steep learning curve, during which many first-adopters will perish because of mistakes and glitches in the system’s database and/or how it is operationalized.

Second, any such system’s advantage will consist of calculating the odds of various outcomes. Playing the odds, of course, is always the smart thing to do. But but even if you have the odds computed out to the Nth decimal place with a 0.0001 confidence interval, you will always be wrong a certain percentage of the time. Let’s say your AI tells you that you have a 70% chance of success on any given venture, do you bet the farm on it?

Let’s say that you are trying to predict whether a given professor is going to the opera on a given night, you know that he has season tickets, but you don’t know he has broken his leg. No matter how huge your database, or how deeply you mine it, there are always going to be salient factors outside your model.

Having such an AI would be like being a card counter in a Las Vegas casino, who would let you play in such a game? On the other hand, we already have people playing the stock market who have advanced automated decision support systems, and the lightning fast means of acting on their decisions. When these game theory-based strategies get locked in a prisoner’s dilemma death spiral, their AI can bring the whole system down. That’s what happened in the previous November meltdown before the last one.

And even with all this computing power at their disposal, nobody was far-sighted enough to realize that we were in a long-term speculative bubble, much less when it is going to pop. The reason is that because of the chaotic properties of markets (and most other things) sensitivity to initial conditions tends to restrict the accuracy of prediction to very short time horizons. Even with massive parallel computing, it would still be like trying to predict the weather. You may be able to extend the accuracy of current predictions for maybe 16 to 24 more hours, but any additional increment will require exponential increases in computing power for smaller and smaller gains.

The very last thing you would want to simulate with AI is the human brain, because the brain is simply a computational substrate for the human mind, which is a social artifact. You wouldn’t want to build a simulation of a human mind either, since they are extremely prone to cognitive biases , errors , selective memory effects, and fallacies to say nothing of the problems of evaluating and correctly weighting the credibility of evidence.

What AI decision support systems do is aggregate large amounts of decision-relevant information and then build a model of an idealized decision-maker. In theory, you could build some sort of automated data mining algorithm to aggregate and correlate predictive variables with outcomes, but that presupposes you can obtain complete information on all the relevant and potentially relevant variables that go into a prediction. Typically, these sorts of things don’t get recorded, much less followed up. Humans are notorious for thinking that they are “expert” simply because they commit the same error over and over for 20 years.

Even if you could surmount this problem, such a “stepwise” analysis is prone to the artifacts of chance. Without some human guidance at every step of the data collection, analysis, or testing stage, could create small errors that compound on one another leading to a disastrous failure.

Moore’s Law actually works to democratize the technology so that any advantage that the power elite may acquire, is soon shared out in a few months; and any advantage that this elite may acquire by being first-adopters will be more than offset by the inevitable glitches that plague cutting-edge technologies.

Any such AI will co-evolve with humanity, which means it will, of necessity, be widely distributed and shared by an increasingly wired humanity.

evelyns_pet_zebra's avatar

@MontyZuma thanks for a lesson in human nature, computers and AI that I never knew I needed to know. A ton of lurve for your expertise. =)

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Let’s say there’s a world goverment put in place. Then let’s say that it turns out to be stunningly expensive, deaf to my wishes and oppressive in my opinion (very likely i would predict)

Where am i supposed to move to for relief? Mars?

The current system is preferable because theres a competition of sorts between governments

I can even move from one US state to another if i decide my states goverment is getting out of hand.

This comment is dedicated to those who say I only post single sentence inflammatory flaimbait.

ragingloli's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv
This scenario requires the dissolving of all local governments, including state governments. This is not going to happen, everyone knows the effort to manage the entire word or even a large country with one single entity is impractically large. This is the reason why the US has state governments, that is why Germany has individual states too. That is why even towns and small cities have individual leadership. Federal governments don’t do micromanagement, they only do the larger issues and give general rules for the smaller governments to abide by. That is true for Federal governments, the EU and UN, and it would be true for a world government.

All you do is present the worst case scenario, but instead of being productive and help in achieving the optimum outcome, you reject it outright. Your worst case scenario did not happen during the German unification, it didn’t happen with the formation of the EU, it didn’t happen with the formation of the US federal government. If everyone thought like you, we still would be a tribal society with the small tribes constantly at war with each other.

Qingu's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv, how is moving from state to state in a United States government different from moving from country to country in a world government?

You are assuming that a world government would be a homogenous entity that erases all semblance of local government, which is nonsense, especially from a practical standpoint.

Zuma's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv If you read my first long post, you will see that we already do have a “world government.” It’s not a very strong government, but a world government nonetheless.

There is no reason to assume that this government will grow “stunningly” expensive or oppressive, save for a raw ideological antipathy you seem to have toward any form of government. The idea that you will become a serf, bound to the land under this government is pure antistatist fantasy on your part. You don’t answer the question, but instead, you ask us how you are to be saved from this nightmare you have imagined.

How is this not ideological trolling, however many sentences it takes you to say this?

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Trolling.. (sigh).. You’re assuming i’m not sincere.

So how are you certain that government won’t grow stunningly expensive of oppressive in my opinion? How are you sure it hasn’t already?

I’m erring on the side of caution. May i do that? Is that allright with you?

Zuma's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv How can a knee-jerk response not be “sincere”? How can even the slightest inconvenience not appear to you as stunning oppression “in your opinion”?

“Erring on the side of caution” would imply that you were cautious and deliberative; that you had some contact with reality; that you were intellectually engaged with the issue; and that you had a rational foundation for your position. But, in this case, as in so many others, you show no sign of intellectual engagement, you offer no reasoned position, and you offer no factual foundation in support of your “opinions.” Instead, what you offer us is not even a fully-formed opinion; it is your unreasoned fear; your gratuitous, automatic, reflexive, ideological antipathy toward government.

You are obvious and predictable, almost entirely without substance, and not at all to be taken seriously. But, even less becoming is that you pretend you are the victim when anyone points this out.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Aww.. Are you going to hurt my feelings?

Thanks for answering the questions in my last post.

Not.

What part of ‘in my opinion’ gave you trouble?

mattbrowne's avatar

World governments will only work if we continue to honor federal principles. Even after first contact. Ever thought of denying Vulcans health insurance because pon farr is seen as a preexisting condition? Talk about filibuster.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

(Checks the OP for the stipulation: ‘Do not mention the worst case scenario’)

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