@mangus: no, the lenders don’t come out and say “We think you’re high-risk,” or “We think you’re sub-prime,” but the indicators are all there. You can find websites out there that draw the lines between prime and subprime in terms of FICO scores; while the actual numbers may vary from lender to lender, whether a buyer is prime or subprime really is that clear-cut. And as you note a lot of this feeds on itself: the people who have poor credit ratings tend to be aware of it, and are so happy that they got approved for a loan at a payment they can afford that they don’t look too closely at the credit report or at the percentage rate.
What’s fuelling the current mortgage problems, though, is twofold. Banks expect a certain amount of defaulting; this is why there’s mortgage insurance involved until the homeowner has a certain amount of equity in the house. If the homeowner defaults after that equity is there, the bank can claim the house and not lose money; if the homeowner defaults before that equity is there, the insurance pays the bank. But people are defaulting at higher rates than they should, and it turns out that this was because banks approved a lot of loans to people they should not have, and this was foreseeable at the time.
The other problem is that a lot of people who would have been reasonable credit risks at the payments their adjustable rate mortgages started at found that they could not make their payments when the rate adjusted upwards. ARMs are a great idea if you have a bit of foresight and the resources to refinance ahead of it becoming necessary; they’re a nightmare if you don’t realize what you’re getting into.