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kay_gill123's avatar

What are the odds in favor of a lie being detected?

Asked by kay_gill123 (4points) February 9th, 2016

A study showed that trained police officers can detect a lie 65 percent of the time, based on controlled studies of videotapes with real-life lies and truths. What are the odds in favor of a lie being detected?

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Mariah's avatar

Is this homework? This seems like a math problem that is just asking you to restate a probability from percentage (65%) to odds.

Do you know what “odds” means, mathematically?

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PhiNotPi's avatar

This does kinda seem like a homework question to convert 65% to odds, in which case there are online tutorials.

On the other hand, if we were to look at this from a Bayesian standpoint, some important information is missing. For example, the question “An officer thinks a suspect is lying, how likely is it that the subject is actually lying?” is currently unsolvable. We are given p(officer detects lie | it’s a lie) = 65%, but we also need to know p(officer detects truth | it’s true) and p(it’s a lie).

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