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basstrom188's avatar

What are the chances of Marine Le Pen becoming the president of France?

Asked by basstrom188 (3985points) November 11th, 2016

The French go to the polls next year. With Brexit and President elect Trump what are the chances of another populist upset of the political status quo?

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12 Answers

elbanditoroso's avatar

Given the US results, it’s hard to dismiss the possibility entirely.

However, there’s a difference between the US and France. France has the opportunity to vote for Le Pen (and her father) for decades, and the French electorate has repeatedly voted them down. (although with an increasingly large minority in recent years). She’s a familiar face that has been rejected.

Trump, on the other hand, is a new face. Unlike Le Pen, he hasn’t had the time to be rejected yet.

ucme's avatar

Je ne sais pas

janbb's avatar

I think there’s a strong possibility in light of the recent terrorism in France and the turn to the right in many places.

Sneki95's avatar

All the chances are she will become the president.

olivier5's avatar

Pretty strong odds. Our turn to jump over the cliff…

janbb's avatar

@olivier5 And Hollande being so unpopular.

BellaB's avatar

A neighbour of mine says to keep an eye on Italy first.

He then expects ⅔ of Germany/France/Holland to flip next year.

Jeruba's avatar

Better than they were a week ago.

CWOTUS's avatar

Considering that the French went “full socialist” not long after Margaret Thatcher was elected in Britain – and after her policies demonstrably started to straighten out Britain’s disastrous economic and social policies of the 1970s – there’s no predicting that they will do anything at all like the UK or the US, whether their policies work for them or not.

On the other hand, recent French troubles with uncontrolled immigration, and the government’s failed response to that; increasing violence in what has normally been a pretty peaceful country, and the government’s “strong words meaning nothing” in response to that, and the continuing failure of “third way” and socialist policies in general mean that I’m not making any predictions. I don’t think the French are stupid, so I don’t think they’ll decide to “keep doing what’s not working so well”, but they don’t seem to become swept up in national rightward “movements”, either. So it’s too early to say.

olivier5's avatar

I would be surprised if the left makes it to the second round of voting. Everyone expects a second round between Le Pen and the Republican candidate. Republicans will do primaries this time (a novelty of sorts) and i know of quite a few leftists who will vote in the rigt’s primaries just so that Sarkozy loses them.

We all hate Sarko, and he could lose to Le Pen. His current rightist rival, Alain JuppĂ©, is believed to have the strongest chances right now. He’s the classic gaulist.

Marine Le Pen is much smarter than her father was. She will make a kilking in that election for sure, given terrorism, the economy, Hollande’s dismall ratings, etc. The brexit and now the Donald could have an impact, depending on how Trump’s first few months in the white house happen.

ramus's avatar

just see trump and the us elections and if she actually does al the crazy s*** she keeps talking about like shooting at refugee boats and removing france from the euro

Brian1946's avatar

Zero, 0, nada, the big nothing.

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