General Question

chyna's avatar

Serious question. Could Trump win a second term?

Asked by chyna (41443points) 1 week ago from iPhone

Don’t go by your love or hatred of him, but does he stand a good chance of being re-elected? I see him on TV at his rallies and the people are cheering like he’s a rock star. I am hoping most of those people are paid to do that and not really cheering at every word that comes out of his mouth.

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50 Answers

stanleybmanly's avatar

The fact that he was elected the first time should dispel any talk of the impossibility of it happening again. If he lasts another 2 years, the difference next time will be that those doubting the feasibility of his election last time will take the threat seriously.

notnotnotnot's avatar

Yes.

And the corporate/establishment Democrats have done nothing but make this more likely. Trump and the Republicans are destroying the fucking planet and waging class war on a majority of the country. Are the Democrats going to offer an alternative, or are they going to “Russia, Russia, Russia” their way into blowing another election? It appears that they are set on the latter.

stanleybmanly's avatar

The makeup of the Congress following the Fall elections will be regarded as the report card on Trump, and preview his chances.

canidmajor's avatar

There seems to be a trend, getting louder and louder, of blaming the Democrats for Trump. I run into it so often now, here and on other fora, and it was very evident during the 2016 election cycle.

This movement seems to be bent on keeping the extremist right-wing groups in power by dividing everybody else into competing mobs, really pushing for candidates that can’t possibly garner the numbers needed to win to put more progressive or even more moderate people into office. The constant insulting, divisive, sarcastic, rhetoric of these folks is as damaging to a concerned effort at agreement is as damaging as shouting “fake news” and trying to silence the free press.

I wonder who’s funding them?

So, to answer your Q, @chyna, we can’t tell how much damage can be done until it’s done.
I surely hope not.

rockfan's avatar

@canidmajor

The democrats used the pied piper strategy and propped up Trump numerous times because they thought it would be easy to win against him. And then they pushed an unpopular candidate to win the democratic nomination. And it ended with a fake populist winning.

I’m not saying that the democrats are completely at fault, but they definitely are a factor in Trump winning

canidmajor's avatar

@rockfan: So, are you one of the ones that pushed (and is still pushing) so hard for a divided front?
Then shame on you.

rockfan's avatar

You’re basically saying that I should be unprincipled in my beliefs in order for everyone to be happy. That’s a load of shit.

rockfan's avatar

I have principled opinions – I criticize both the right and the left when I see hypocrisy. It is actually the establishment democrats dividing people, because more than half of the country agree on the policies of Bernie Sanders, yet establishment democrats aren’t listening to the will of the American people. People like Diane Feinstein and Nancy Pelosi act as though they’re not popular issues.

Also, the equivalent of calling me shameful for criticizing the left is like saying someone is anti-American for criticizing war hawks.

Response moderated
Demosthenes's avatar

Yes. And I agree with @notnotnotnot. Trump has a good chance of winning if the Democrats present no viable alternative. They’re going to need to do more than “not Trump”. No, the Democrats are not completely at fault for Trump winning, but if they don’t acknowledge the role they had in putting Trump in office and learn from their 2016 mistakes, Trump will win again, guaranteed.

gorillapaws's avatar

@canidmajor “So, are you one of the ones that pushed (and is still pushing) so hard for a divided front?”

I’m all for a unified front from the Democrats, but it’s time for the establishment to take a back seat and support the left. The corporate Democratic leadership has proven time and again that they’re loosers (literally). They’ve lost over 1000 seats since 2008. They have no compelling message. So if you want unity, that’s fine, but don’t you dare wag your finger at us, fall in line, otherwise you’re going to have a divided front, and it won’t be our fault.

Zaku's avatar

@canidmajor I agree with what everyone except you has written above, and I don’t think any of us are being paid. It’s more horrible that the Republicans have become a horror party, but it’s almost as horrible that the Democrats have mainly become a party of “at least we’re not the horror party”. It’s not the fault of people pointing this out, and it’s not a solution to pretend this isn’t the case. A solution needs to include actual lower-case democratic representation, or else we’ll be stuck in a hell of utterly terrible Republicans alternating with Democrats who are also corporate pawns but not as terrible.

kritiper's avatar

I think he’s changed too many minds to win a second term. It might be close, but it won’t happen. (Remember, I said MIGHT.)

chyna's avatar

@kritiper From your lips to Gods ears.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

Probably,because I have zero faith in the American voter.
They fell for his lies the first time, if Mueller gets nowhere, it will only solidify him more in the hearts of the right wingers.
AS @stanleybmanly said the midterms will be his report card, but even that and Mueller if he remains in his die hards might just give him a second term ,then God help us all.

canidmajor's avatar

Not actually what I said, @rockfan.
I expected to take a lot of heat for my post, and I get the (flawed) logic behind “voting one’s conscience”. Flawed, because the greater good often gets ignored. There will never be a candidate that anyone likes without reservation. Two years ago I heard a lot of conscience voters saying “well, he can’t do any real damage in four years”.

And I kept asking people “If you trusted Sanders to be POTUS, why do you not trust his endorsement?” And I kept hearing about how he didn’t mean it, how he was forced to say it, etc etc. Personally, I believed he meant it, or I would not have trusted and endorsed him in the beginning.

Vote your conscience, yes, but do examine it once and awhile.

LostInParadise's avatar

It all depends on the state of the economy. I am making no predictions, though cutting taxes on the rich and conducting trade wars seems to me to be a questionable way of promoting prosperity. If the economy continues as it has of late, which is by no means certain, then Trump will be re-elected.

gorillapaws's avatar

@canidmajor In many ways Hilary was worse than Trump. She basically stole the primary and disenfranchised progressives across the country. It’s not the case that I disagreed with her on just a couple of issues. Hillary and her buddies are the cancer that is rotting our political process and destroying our country—allowing scumbags like Trump to rise. I’ll vote for Jill Stein (or whoever is on the Green party ticket) in 2020 if the establishment runs another corporate shill.

To me having a party that ACTUALLY represents the working/middle class IS the greater good that’s worth fighting for. Supporting a party that forces me to vote for Republican or Republican-lite at the ballot is MORE damaging to this country than Trump.

KNOWITALL's avatar

100% yes, he could.

Here in Red land they have defended everything thus far, and the vehemence from the Left is so constant that they’ll have to stand their ground at this point, to prove they are right (conservatives.)

Just my take, call them fools if you like, but they are loyal.

As I have stated previously here, if the Dems would calm down and lay off Trump, and focus on their own moderate candidate, they would improve their chances for 2020.

The primaries tomorrow should be interesting as a gauge.

Irukandji's avatar

Of course he can win again. All he needs is for the same people to vote the same way. Unless the electorate changes in either composition or opinion, we’ll get a repeat of 2016.

@canidmajor The Democrats screwed up so badly in 2016 that Hillary Clinton received more votes than anyone in history other than Barack Obama (and did better than her husband in the primary). What a shitty candidate.

flutherother's avatar

Trump appears more popular than he is as he never appears in front of the people who oppose him. When he came to the UK he was transported from place to place by helicopter avoiding population centres where sizeable protests had been organised. I think it’s the same in the US.

It’s almost a certainty that Trump will be re-elected unless they can find a suitable candidate to stand against him.

Jeruba's avatar

He can, yes, of course. Especially having a wild card in his hand. We have no idea how susceptible we really are to interference with our process.

I think it will be generations, at least, before we trust our elections again. Before then, we’ll know what it feels like to vote in nations where the outcome is predetermined, including, most recently, Cambodia.

Sometimes I do remember to be grateful that he belongs to the Republicans. For all their faults, the Democrats did not raise this monster.

Really our only hope is that he is tired of it, and not only he but the people who prop him up and haven’t exhausted their ideas for looting the coffers.

If this were a movie, a mission team would be forming somewhere in what’s left of the free world.

Jaxk's avatar

Wow, there certainly is a lot of vitriol here. The economy is booming, our military is stronger than ever, the trade deficit is declining,and we’re making good progress across the world. I’m not seeing the doom and gloom the democrats predicted and wanted. If democrats continue scream and preach socialism I don’t see how they can win. IMHO.

rockfan's avatar

The economy is booming for rich people, not the poor and middle class. And the military has always been strong, in fact we spend too much money on it. We’re bombing more countries than ever under trump.

And progressive democrats aren’t preaching pure socialism, they’re advocating for a social democrat philosophy

ragingloli's avatar

Of course.
In fact, I am expecting it.

ucme's avatar

Being reported over here for a while that he’s a shoe in, Democrats clucking like headless chickens.

kritiper's avatar

@Jaxk Stay tuned! There’s a couple years to go yet before the election!!

josie's avatar

See above.
If the Democrats put up a candidate that has polled negative since the day she showed up on the political stage, as they did the last time, he will certainly win.

Jaxk's avatar

Let’s see the stock market has been hitting all time highs for a year now, US wage growth in June was 2018’s strongest so far , Consumer confidence is up, and unemployment is the lowest in history. Workforce participation is finally improving and manufacturing jobs are returning. It’s slow to turn the disastrous Obama years around but it’s happening. Frankly I’m impressed.

MooCows's avatar

Could Trump win..why of course-HE WILL WIN!
And you can take that to the bank!

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

If the left let Hillary run again you can guarantee it. If they field a more reasonable, real, likable and moderate candidate like Obama was then probably not. If they field one who focuses on the economy, healthcare and leave abortion and guns alone then there is no way the Donald will be back.

SergeantQueen's avatar

Yes. If people vote him in.

mazingerz88's avatar

trump can and will win again. Just read the praises for trump in this thread. As long as people ignore the evil things trump does and deem more important their own lives, their family’s lives, their guns, their economy, their billionaire supporters, their outlook that brown people are not humans…this is the America they want and the America of their dreams.

It’s so easy to vote for someone like trump and grin with satisfaction afterwards…because brown people who cross the border are illegals therefore they don’t count, they don’t exist and trumpians sleep well at night believing they are good people and trump is doing everything to save their country, children, their very souls.

Stache's avatar

No. His base is loud but that’s about it. Many of the people who voted for him have buyer’s remorse. Don’t forget, he also lost the popular vote last time. He’s a one term president, if he even lasts that long.

kritiper's avatar

@Stache (standing ovation) GA!

johnpowell's avatar

So, the people that want a message from Democrats… It is out there. Try looking. There is a party platform. Really, if you don’t know what Democrats stand for you haven’t tried.

LostInParadise's avatar

@johnpowell , You have to take into account that the Democrats may be changing due to the progressive wing represented by the likes of Sanders, Warren, and the recent electoral victory of Ocasio-Cortez, who has been drawing a lot of attention recently.

I really hope that the Democrats choose someone other than Clinton or Biden to run against Trump. The party has been drifting to the right since Bill Clinton, to the point that it is hard to distinguish mainstream Democrats from mainstream Republicans.

notnotnotnot's avatar

@johnpowell: “So, the people that want a message from Democrats… It is out there. Try looking. There is a party platform. Really, if you don’t know what Democrats stand for you haven’t tried.”

I don’t think it’s the public’s fault that they don’t know what the Democratic party stands for. If it’s going to simply blame the public and cry, “read the platform” (or “Read The EULA”) when people don’t see a party that stands for them in a clear way, then it is going to continue to lose.

MrGrimm888's avatar

It seems unavoidable. As mentioned above, the dems have failed to plan, and therefore planned to fail. The midterms will be one of the most important elections in US history, and I haven’t seen or heard a strong push from the dems. There isn’t much point in beating on Trump. His base is too stupid to see his obvious flaws, and everyone else already sees them. The dems need some solid messages, and ideas. There are a handful of people who would make great potential POTUS candidates, but they keep the party divided enough to allow the minority in this country to dictate the pace.

I love Bernie, but I am positive that Hillary would have won if he weren’t running as well. I hate Hillary, but she would have been exponentially better than Trump. Which is not a high bar, but I would take it…

Trump is very stupid. He has a hobby of making incriminating statements, and crazy bad decisions. We will have to simply hope that he hangs himself. I think if he has to testify in almost any part of the Mueller investigation, he will get himself into a bad spot.

I have no faith in the Democratic party to save the country… I have LOTS of faith that the idiots supporting Trump, will continue.

Lots of articles, and interviews with analysts of world leaders suggest that many have decided to try to work without the US, and wait Trump out. It would be even worse for the world, if Trump got reelected. I wonder what the world will be like after 8 years of America isolating itself, and cutting all diplomatic ties with the world…..

Soubresaut's avatar

For anyone who’s interested, there’s a podcast called The Wilderness that’s created by a former Obama speech writer. It focuses on the Democratic party—its history, its weaknesses, where it can and should go from here. I’m not all the way through the released episodes (currently being released every Monday), but I thought it was interesting enough to share on this thread, in case anyone wants to listen to it, or listen to select episode(s) from it.

MrGrimm888's avatar

Pod casts are great. The demo should be shouting from the rooftops, a clear set of a few basic positions/ideas. There is a lot that needs to be attended to, by the government. Even if the dems went gard on infrastructure, that would be something that wasn’t just the opposite of what Trump is doing. They need to energize the country again, like with Obama. Are there really so few good people, and ideas, in the DNC?

chyna's avatar

^Apparently. IMHO there is not one single stand out, no one to really rally the party. Someone should have stepped up by now. As I kept saying last time, out of about 300 million people in the US, that was all we could come up with to run for President?

stanleybmanly's avatar

The Bernie episode showed us that the parties are set up with safeguards ensuring the status quo, and guarding againt interlopers and their ideas. And The only reason Trump slipped through was that he was taken for a clown, and gained momentum before the dogs could be loosed on him. The Democrats, on the other hand recognized Bernie for the threat he was, and were fully prepared to derail him by hook or by crook.

gorillapaws's avatar

@Jaxk “US wage growth in June was 2018’s strongest so far”

Bureau of Labor Statistics said that earnings for all employees were unchanged in June from June 2017.

“the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that earnings for all employees were unchanged in June from June 2017. Real average hourly wages increased 0.1% in June from May, because half of a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings was eaten up by a 0.1% increase in the Consumer Price Index.

Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers actually decreased by 0.2% over the past year, the BLS said. ”

Still not impressed, especially after an obscene giveaway to billionaires and corporations that just got pushed through under the guise that this would somehow trickle down to the worker.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

But @gorillapaws as long as those poor people are working so what if it’s only minimum wage can’t live off of,THEY ARE WORKING! and that’s all that counts.

They keep shouting manufacturing has returned, but NOT one can name any of these manufacturers .

Wages for the average worker have been fucking stagnant since the wonder trickle down theory was implemented, but boy the kids at the top sure have seen their income sky rocket.
BUT Trump’s base is beyond stupid and they cling to his lies, like crap to toilet paper, so unless the dems get their shit together Trump just might get in again, then we can look forward to WW3.

KNOWITALL's avatar

Here’s some actual facts:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-09/manufacturing-keeps-adding-jobs-amid-trump-s-tough-talk

After visiting six manufacturing plants in Illinois and the Carolinas the week we spoke to him, Jeff Owens, the CEO of Advanced Technology Services (ATS), said he found “a real energy that’s building in manufacturing.” But Owens said the “good problem” facing manufacturers is finding people to staff their plants after years of little or no hiring. Even as manufacturing employment increased by 196,000 in 2017, the industry faces massive dislocation as baby boomers retire and manufacturers compete with other industries for tech-savvy recruits.
https://www.industryweek.com/economy/has-us-manufacturing-been-unleashed

And 16 company names for you (not all attributed to Trump of course):
Apple, Ford, etc…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2018/06/28/manufacturers-bringing-most-jobs-back-to-america/36438051/

gorillapaws's avatar

@KNOWITALL “Here’s some actual facts:”

Are you implying that the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics aren’t “actual facts?” Are you saying that real wages have increased meaningfully year over year from June 2017, to June 2018? I’m not surprised that some wages in some sectors have increased, but also not surprised that just as many decreased. The net effect is zero or close to it.

What exactly did that 2.3 Trillion dollar gift to the investment class get for the average working American again? I must have missed it. My paycheck isn’t noticeably different.

MrGrimm888's avatar

^The people who I knew that were already rich, seem fine. Those who weren’t, are still struggling. I know LOTS of people who simply settled for low paying jobs, that they are way overqualified for. It’s not as bad as ‘09, but the “recovery” hasn’t gotten people back to where they were. Since Trump has been in office, the market seems to be doing well, but that doesn’t help many common people. The stock market is essentially gambling. Even if I were very wealthy, I wouldn’t be interested in the risk. So. If I want to get the advantages of a Trump presidency, I have to gamble on the market I guess. That is NOT a boost to my economy…

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