General Question

gorillapaws's avatar

Can you help me understand how people believe that Biden can beat Trump?

Asked by gorillapaws (24658points) 2 weeks ago

Regarding the electability of Joe Biden in a general election, I don’t see how he has any chance vs. Trump. Obviously many people disagree with me, so help me understand the logic? What is different between Biden’s policies, and who he appeals to that will help him succeed where Clinton failed?

It seems that, like Clinton, Biden’s strongest support in many cases, is coming from states (such as SC) that are certain to go for Trump in the general anyways, unless I’m misreading things? Biden seems to be unable (or unwilling) to expand the party, or build enthusiasm.

I see so many areas where Biden is at a disadvantage from where Clinton was vs. Trump.

Compared to Clinton, Biden has a longer (and worse) policy record, including supporting segregation; he wrote the crime bill; he played a major role in pushing the Democrats into the Iraq war; he supported a litany of bad trade deals that devastated the rust belt; he has advocated freezing/cutting social security, medicare, and other entitlements, his disastrous bankruptcy bill, etc.

Furthermore Biden has the issue of his son Hunter, who has been a problem and will likely continue to be someone the Trump campaign will use against him. Even if there’s nothing illegal, there has certainly been some ethically bankrupt decisions.

Biden doesn’t have the advantage of being able to play the identity card (a woman, person of color, or even religious minority).

Biden also has the major problem that it appears he’s experiencing some kind of neurological degradation/impairment/whatever with many examples of him being confused about time, location, and slurring out non-sensical word salad, demonstrating recall memory failures.

I know there are smart people who think Biden is the way forward, so help me understand. Where will the energy for him come from? What groups of people are going to turn out for Biden in the general that didn’t show up for Clinton and why? In what ways is Biden’s campaign not a Clinton 2.0? What am I missing?

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173 Answers

rebbel's avatar

Yes, I think I can.
There’s always a fighting chance that an underdog wins (underdog to the objective viewer).
Some thought Trump could not win, others thought he could.
Same thing for Hillary Clinton.
Trump won (which came as a surprise to a few).

mazingerz88's avatar

Biden’s association with Obama maybe.

janbb's avatar

It seems unlikely to me that either of the two old white men remaining would be able to beat Trump.

mazingerz88's avatar

^^Why not? Why can’t any of the two beat trump? Bernie’s universal healthcare plans?

gorillapaws's avatar

@mazingerz88 “Biden’s associated with Obama.”

That’s true, but so was Clinton (Obama’s Secretary of State). Do you think that’s enough?

What demographic will that win over that didn’t go for Clinton but would go for Biden?

mazingerz88's avatar

I definitely have no idea if that’s enough. All I know is if the Dem campaign strategists mess this “game” up like Hillary’s strategists did, the country would be in deeper sh— than it is right now.

Campaign strategists must work with what they have. Make use of anything including BS if need be. Because BS works for trump. Sounds desperate I know. Whatever works!

hmmmmmm's avatar

@gorillapaws: “I know there are smart people who think Biden is the way forward, so help me understand.”

They don’t. I’m telling you. If you find a Biden supporter, their support goes like this:

1. I want the best candidate to beat Trump.
2. I’ve been told that Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump.

Besides being a very privileged position to hold, this position means that the potential voter hasn’t really considered what they are saying.

The corporations that are pushing this narrative (and establishment Democrats) are well aware of Biden’s problems. That’s why they tried everything else before panicking and going with Biden at the last second. They are well aware of Biden’s obvious weakness, and it doesn’t matter. Just like with Clinton, corporate Democrats are willing to keep their positions (and their party) even if it means four more years of Trump. The real battle/election has always been the Sanders (and left) threat vs corporate Democrats and Republicans, who have much more in common.

I think the older Democratic voters are underestimating what a Biden nomination means for the country, the world, and the future of their Democratic party. It’s over.

seawulf575's avatar

I think what you are hearing is not actual belief in Biden. What you are hearing is desperation against the idea that Trump is going to get elected again.

KNOWITALL's avatar

I honestly don’t get it either. Once you really start digging into Biden, you probably aren’t going to like what you see. Attacking of Anita Hill in the 90’s against Clarence Thomas. Basically wrote the Patriot Act. Voted for the Iraq War. Voted against SSM in 1996. Gave Bush the Libery Medal. I think you can see where I’m going with this.

zenvelo's avatar

Clinton had a sizeable number of people, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, who would never support her under any circumstances. They didn’t like her as a person, and did not trust her.

Biden does not cause that visceral reaction in people. Despite his flaws, he is a good and decent person, and it comes out quite often.

@KNOWITALL Biden did not “write the Patriot Act,” that was all Joe Lieberman, who ended up switching parties and became a Republican.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@zenvelo: “Biden does not cause that visceral reaction in people.”

hmmm. Have you met anyone younger than 35 years old? They’re hatred for Biden is just as strong.

KNOWITALL's avatar

@zenvelo He says he did.

Another potential sticking point for liberals: Biden not only voted for the 2001 Patriot Act, he, on many occasions, claimed credit for writing it.

“I drafted a terrorism bill after the Oklahoma City bombing,” Biden was quoted as saying by the New Republic in 2001.

“And the bill John Ashcroft sent up was my bill,” Biden continued, referring to the Patriot Act. The act broadened the surveillance capabilities of U.S. law enforcement agencies as it relates to identifying potential terrorists, and many of its provisions have been opposed by liberal Democrats and civil libertarians.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/andrewkaczynski/surveillance-joe

tinyfaery's avatar

Most Americans will never vote for a self-avowed socialist. A lot of people are fed up with Trump but will never vote for Bernie, and Dems will lose those votes if they nominate him.

From what I’ve seen of recent polls (not that they mean anything) they show both Biden and Bernie beating Trump.

Also, many Dems have serious reservations that Bernie will be able to get any of his agenda enacted. And instead of 4 years with nothing happening, they want 4 years of some progress.

Dems are also worried about down ballot races, which to me is the most salient point. Can Bernie pull off getting other Dems elected to the House and Senate? If Bernie is the nominee, will Dems give him a super majority? If they don’t it won’t matter who the president is, the Senate will block everything.

Personally, I think the White House is lost and we should be worried about keeping the House and flipping the Senate.

I realize you probably asked this questions so you can give your own arguments as to why people should vote for Bernie, but I already voted, and I am blue no matter who. Which leads to my final point. If the Berners hold the nomination hostage and refuse to vote for Biden, Trump will win, their prophecy will be fulfilled, and then we are all fucked.

Inspired_2write's avatar

Because Biden is a rational being and thinks things out .

KNOWITALL's avatar

It doesn’t appear that Detroit went well either, and it was liberals and pro Sanders folks that were upset at Biden. He’s been attacked by vegans and all kinds of folks on the Dem spectrum, that’s what surprises me.

‘Left-wing protesters interrupted a political rally for Joe Biden in Detroit, Michigan, but he blamed President Donald Trump for the pandemonium.

Two sets of protesters disrupted the rally for the Democratic presidential front-runner. One was protesting against the NAFTA trade agreement, while the other advocated for the “Green New Deal.”
https://www.theblaze.com/news/biden-interrupted-by-leftwing-protesters-in-detroit?utm_content=buffer3b1d1&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=fb-whitehousebrief&fbclid=IwAR1OJ4dLhkzxZrXh4MmSLgk4bi2jQuXwLoiww_rWOo23YxGRnh5_t-BHECs

gorillapaws's avatar

@tinyfaery “I realize you probably asked this questions so you can give your own arguments as to why people should vote for Bernie”

No, I’m honestly trying to understand the logic behind Biden supporters who want to defeat Trump more than anything. It’s like: “The only thing I care about is beating Trump! Therefore let’s do exactly what didn’t work in 2016 with an old guy this time who seems to be losing his mind and this time it will work?” It feels like total madness to me, and I’m trying to understand how intelligent people can have this perspective. I thought maybe I was missing/overlooking some important details/perspectives/arguments.

Jonsblond's avatar

@hmmmmmm is right. Biden does not have the support of millennials. Many of them despise him.

tinyfaery's avatar

A lot has happened in 4 years. We might as well be an entirely different country.

janbb's avatar

@Jonsblond And many other people despise Sanders so I think it’s a real guessing game who can win against Trump. I don’t see either as a slam dunk so you pays your money and you takes your chance. But I truly, truly think that defeating Trump and winning the down ballot is crucial for the sake of immigrants, children who are being detained, people of color and women’s reproductive rights.

canidmajor's avatar

This just came to my attention:

Another perspective from an African American Biden voter:

“Let me explain something to you about Joe Biden and why some of the shit that he’s done in his past doesn’t matter.
This old rich white man played second fiddle to a black man. Not just any black man, but a younger black man, a smart black man. Not just for a day. Not 1, not 2 but eight years. He took his cues from this black man who had more power than him and was virtually unknown when he took the presidency, and Joe Biden had been around forever.
He was willing and proud to be his wing man. Not once did he try to undermine him, this black man. Instead Joe walked in lockstep with him, he respected him, he loved and trusted him. He was led by him and he learned from him. And Joe did not have a problem with it.
You tell me what 40+ year “establishment” white politician has ever done that. Joe Biden is cut from a different cloth. And black folks understand that and for good reason. He has shown it.
This is what showing up and being an ally looks like. When black people say they know Joe, this is how we know.”

~ Laurie Goff
You may repost

KNOWITALL's avatar

@canidmajor While I understand the quid pro quo mentality, Trump voters have said that for 3.5 years now, I would posit he’s still an old rich white man and there’s no smart black man calling the shots now if Biden is elected.

janbb's avatar

@KNOWITALL I’m hoping there’s a smart Black woman who has his back.

Jonsblond's avatar

@janbb I was speaking about millennials. They don’t despise Sanders. He has the majority of the youth vote.

janbb's avatar

@Jonsblond I know although I doubt that even millennials are a monolith. I was speaking of the voting public in general.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

It’s not surprising at all that Biden leaped ahead once the primaries swept through the southern states. I know many Republicans and Trumpers who voted for him so Sanders would not get the nomination.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@canidmajor has an excellent point regarding black folks and their affection for Biden. But Biden shares another advantage that both he and Obama have over Hillary. I know many will dismiss this, but I believe it is key. The one thing both Biden and Obama had going for them is that both of them were spared the focused 30 year campaign of slander and scurrilous defamation heaped on Hillary. I am convinced that objectively there are very many of us walking around with a distaste for Hillary that we cannot explain objectively. And I say this because I am one of those people. Objectively, there hasn’t been a Presidential candidate since the first George Bush as qualified for the gig as Hillary Clinton. Biden can’t hold a candle to her, but like her, he’s paid his dues—it’s his turn. Whatever he lacks in chops is more than compensated by the fact that he is spared the 30 years of background indoctrination leveled against the one individual the right recognized was bound for the gig when her husband left Arkansas. As with Obama, there hasn’t been time to subliminally condition us to “never Biden”. But here’s the strongest reason that the Democratic party stands behind Biden: He LOOKS like a better bet than Bernie for beating Trump. THAT is the only qualification necessary. It is the ONLY priority for black folks, Latinos, the young, gays, etc.

Patty_Melt's avatar

Most of the Democrats in office don’t want President Trump to leave office. The only reason they voted to impeach was because they had to make things look good for the party, and they knew impeachment was going to be tossed aside in the House. They tossed a bunch of inexperienced youngsters into the candidate stew so they could get a public read to prepare for 2024. Once they had that, they narrowed it down to a pair of corpses.
Party aside, they know that Trump is right for the country, at least for now. They can’t openly back him, or show approval. As Democrats they would be ruined.
Everyone grip tighly to your armrests. Trump will leave quietly when his second term is finished. At that time demdcrats will have their parade ready. Republicans will need to step up their game by then, because I have a feeling we will be strongly considering POTUS, and his First Gentleman for ‘24.

tinyfaery's avatar

That’s some tin foil hat shit right there. ^

hmmmmmm's avatar

@stanleybmanly: “It is the ONLY priority for black folks, Latinos, the young, gays, etc.”

Older black folks, etc – just like Clinton. You might not have known why you hated Clinton. But the left definitely did. And the same exact reasons we hate Clinton apply to Biden.

@stanleybmanly: “He LOOKS like a better bet than Bernie for beating Trump.”

But he doesn’t in any way – except for a population that is consuming corporate media. He looks the least likely to beat Trump – from his right-wing awful past to his current monstrous policy positions to his inability to speak. This guy won’t win many states in a general. It will be a blowout for Trump.

Joe Biden is a loathsome person and politician. He’s someone Democrats should be fighting against. But this is who they chose, and this will be their end.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@Patty Melt you astonish me.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@hmmmmm Even if what you say is true, which of the 2 evils do you suppose the left will prefer? And how many of them do you believe will stay home in disgust THIS time?

gorillapaws's avatar

@stanleybmanly If it’s Biden on the ticket, I’m most likely voting 3rd party unless he picks a progressive VP. He’s going to lose anyway, so supporting a 3rd party has more value to me.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@Patty Melt considering the ammunition the fool has provided those Democrats, you should prepare yourself for the greatest extravaganza of “pretend” hatred you will experience in your lifetime. If you think I’m tough on your turd, just watch what’s coming.

Patty_Melt's avatar

I’m okay with shock and disbelief.
Most of fluther reacted precisely the same way when four years ago I rightly predicted a Trump win.
Nobody needs to agree with me. Simply look at the behavior of the party, not media, party only for the past three years.
Of course I did specify Dems in office, not your average voter.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@gorillapaws yeah, I Voted for Nader when Gore was running, but only because I lived in California. I don’t know where you live.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@stanleybmanly: “Even if what you say is true, which of the 2 evils do you suppose the left will prefer?”

I think the evil of the corporate parties and capitalism is a much larger threat than 4 more years of Trump. If Obama/Biden helped get us here, along with a corrupt Democratic party and Clinton in 2016, a corrupt Democratic party isn’t going to get us out of this.

Liberals generally see a pre-Trump world as “good” and the Trump presidency as the worst thing that has ever happened – even though they were the ones that brought about his presidency. But things were not good before Trump, and liberals’ voices were silent during Obama’s presidency and Bill Clinton’s horrors. They rehabilitated war criminals like George Bush. Liberals have always spent more effort punching left than right, and the Trump years have proven this to be the case.

We are now facing the end of the Democratic party, and it is about time. Our only chance is to rebuild.

Spare the “privileged” lectures. Obama’s bombing and deportations were met with silence by liberals. They pretend that if Trump is arguably worse than we should return to the polite imperialism, murder, and immigration nightmare of the Obama years.

Biden wants to kill poor people and people like me. He explicitly says so. His opposition to M4A means that tens of thousands of people will die. He wants to continue to criminalize the black community by keeping cannabis illegal. He fought to make sure people couldn’t get out of crushing student loan debt by fighting for bankruptcy. He’s the hand of corporate America, and his existence is a threat to humanity. So fuck the “privilege” horseshit.

“But Trump will be worse” – Really? What exactly will Democrats do if Biden were to somehow win (spoiler alert: he can’t)? Would they go back to brunch and feeling comfortable in their privilege? Would they be able to sleep at night? Or would their newfound (and questionable) interest in the oppressed stay active? Would they push for economic justice? Would they push for immigration reform that they didn’t want during Obama? Would they suddenly find the courage to give a shit about climate change? I suspect they’d take their smug smiles to Whole Foods and brag about how “normal” things are.

4 more years of a corporate screw-the-poor Democrat will give us someone in 2024 that will make Democrats wish Trump was still in office. Ellen will have Trump on to dance and joke, Michelle Obama will be best friends with Trump, and we’ll all be “Anyone-But-NewGuy”, etc.

Who do I suppose the left would prefer? I can’t speak for “the left”, but I am under the impression that a whole generation has been shown that the Democratic party is an evil force. I can speak for my 48-year-old self, however, and tell you that there is 0.0000% chance that I would vote for Biden.

The lesser of two evils is a game that gave us Trump. It will continue to lead to indescribable suffering if we continue to play.

This isn’t about Sanders. It’s about something larger – something that is being killed by the Democrats – not the Republicans. Democrats – and liberals – have always served as the firewall that keeps movements and the fight for justice from taking effect.

If you find the urge to tell me that my non-Biden vote = a vote for Trump, just stop. Trump is on you. You knew what you were doing. Own it.

janbb's avatar

@hmmmmmm It must be hard to walk around with that degree of rage all the time.

stanleybmanly's avatar

I strongly disagree with the contention that Trump is preferable to whichever Democrat is thrust in front of us. And that pox on both your houses business is fine until it is understood that you will be compelled to live in one of them. It is absolutely true that both are whorehouses, but one of them is in the process of degrading even prostitution beyond tolerable limits.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@janbb: ”@hmmmmmm It must be hard to walk around with that degree of rage all the time.”

It’s no picnic. I spent years trying not to care. And depression is a frequent friend. So, yeah – it sucks. It would be nice to have more people who cared.

canidmajor's avatar

I appreciate that some of you guys (and I’m not talking about the people who voted Trump) see nothing wrong with four more years of appointing fascist judges, rolling back the rest of the protective regulations on our water, food supply, environment in general, selling off the mineral and oil rights of our parks and shores to the highest bidder, destroying our educational system, removing the rights of citizens and deporting some of them, keeping humans in detention camps, but I just can’t quite reconcile that.

How many of you have done anything other than single mindedly whine that you’re not getting your way and everybody that doesn’t agree with you is wrong? It is highly unlikely that you are better informed, have better deductive reasoning skills, are more intelligent and better educated than all the rest of us.

Run for city council, work your way up, then change the world. Leaping in every fourth year to snidely berate those of us who try to see a variety of points of view is silly.

Enjoy your privilege.

And I’m out.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

I see so much misguided hope people have in Sanders. It’s the same tired game politicians have been playing for hundreds of years. Tell people what they want to hear then do whatever the hell you want once in office, if you do anything…at all. Even if Sanders means well he has no realistic path forward on any of his grandiose plans.

@hmmmmmm
Don’t let all of this get you down, it pays to be both stoic and pragmatic. There is enough political gridlock where nothing major is going to happen right now. This is not such a bad thing at the moment.

The political dumpster fire we have now makes me dream a little…
If the coronavirus becomes an epidemic…it could kill all of the candidates running as they are all elderly and all appear to have health issues. This could be an interesting year if that happens.

ucme's avatar

They’re desperate & clutching at straws.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@canidmajor: “I appreciate that some of you guys (and I’m not talking about the people who voted Trump) see nothing wrong with four more years of appointing fascist judges,”

It would be nice if Democrats saw something wrong with appointing fascist judges, rather than fast-tracking them.

@canidmajor: “removing the rights of citizens and deporting some of them, keeping humans in detention camps, but I just can’t quite reconcile that.”

Like I said – it was apparently ok when Obama did it.

@canidmajor: “It is highly unlikely that you are better informed, have better deductive reasoning skills, are more intelligent and better educated than all the rest of us.”

I’m not. Far from it. We just have different values and different lenses. I see things as class struggle, you see things from a different perspective. Some of that might be privilege on your part. You might have had opportunity that younger people will never have because the ladder has been pulled up behind you.

@canidmajor: “Enjoy your privilege.”

Again, this is constantly used as a hammer against change. You pro-actively turn your privilege around and say those that threaten your privilege are the ones with the real privilege.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@ARE_you_kidding_me: “I see so much misguided hope people have in Sanders. It’s the same tired game politicians have been playing for hundreds of years. Tell people what they want to hear then do whatever the hell you want once in office, if you do anything…at all. Even if Sanders means well he has no realistic path forward on any of his grandiose plans.”

That’s where you’re wrong. The left finally had someone who gave voice to their concerns decide to run for president. Someone who has been fighting for the same thing for decades. No sudden change. No need to check the polling. The movements finally had a voice that brought their needs and interests into the public. That is all Sanders is/was. Our hope was to finally have someone who could bypass the corporate filters and give voice to our movements and truly be “organizer in chief”.

Demosthenes's avatar

Black Democrats seem to overwhelmingly support Biden and I’ve wondered why that is. All that’s been suggested to me is that Biden is associated with the first black president and he worked under a black boss, so that makes him great. This is what I’m hearing second-hand from people who know black Biden supporters. I have not heard it directly from them. Some white Biden supporters I’ve talked to have similar reasons, just without the racial element: they liked Obama and they associate Biden with Obama, with the kind of establishment sanity that doesn’t veer into socialism the way Sanders does. Others who aren’t Biden supporters have told me that this country will never, ever elect a socialist, therefore Bernie loses automatically. That might be a reason Biden will win the nomination and why Bernie won’t beat Trump, but it doesn’t suggest to me that Biden will beat Trump. Ultimately, I do not think Trump can be beaten. One-term presidents are a rarity now. The economy would have to tank (it’s not doing well now, so I guess that factor is still up in the air) for people to want to change parties in the middle of a presidency. Trump’s caustic personality and erratic behavior aren’t enough if most Americans feel they are doing well (or at least better than they were) economically.

Darth_Algar's avatar

Yeah, it’s great that Bernie has such support among the demographic that’s least likely to vote. However, among the demographics who do actually vote he just isn’t winning them over and all the berating of them in the world isn’t going to bring them over to your side.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

@hmmmmmm Hook, line and sinker. I don’t understand why this is so hard to see. People who need that voice will rally behind any charlatan who speaks it. That is all Sanders is/was. He is a gimmick, it’s the niche he is attempting to exploit to get himself into the oval office. It is the exact same formula Trump used only Sanders is polite and well spoken. Once Trump is done with his next term if he lives that long the Republicans are toast. The DNC can see that a mile away and fear what Sanders would do to both undo that damage and also wreck the future of the DNC just as Trump has done for the other side. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid, it’s a fools game.

Neither party represents my interests very well at the moment. Both scare the shit out of me for different reasons. For once I partially agree with @canidmajor except for the “I’m out” part. I’m not.

Demosthenes's avatar

@Darth_Algar So true. Young people still have lousy turnout. They’re all talk—I was. If white working class voters gave Trump the election in 2016, it seems to me they should be the focus this time around too. I know Democrats love to talk about diversity and youth, but diversity and youth aren’t making the difference in elections. White working class people in swing states are.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@ARE_you_kidding_me – Well, shit. Sanders has played the long game far longer than anyone in history.

And just so you understand – not one person is under the impression that their work ends at Sanders’ election. The work just starts.

Anyway, it sounds like you just became aware of the left – and Sanders. You’re not someone who is on the radar for voting for a center-left candidate like Sanders. You are quite right-wing.

Jonsblond's avatar

This “Bernie supporters are mean” bs is hilarious. Hillary supporters have done nothing but give us grief and hate for 4 years. Give me a break with the victimhood.

kritiper's avatar

I could swear that I’ve answered this question before.
The Democrats who didn’t vote for Hillary because they assumed incorrectly she would win anyway, supposedly without their votes, will come out en masse with their Democratic brethren and carry the Democratic candidate to victory.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

“Sanders has played the long game far longer than anyone in history.”

@hmmmmmm
Really??? He is a career politician and a mediocre one at that.

I’m a center-right leaning republican depending on who you talk to. Some will still call me a lefty and I’m keenly aware of the left. I used to be a hard lefty until I came to my senses.

@Jonsblond Sanders supporters are not mean, they’re angry and rightfully so. Their demographic has been fucked over for years and they are sick of it. About the only way to not get that treatment is to not be that demographic anymore. Moving out of that space requires a certain finesse most do not have who are in said space. It’s not fair but then again, life is not exactly fair. I just hate to see the false hope people have in certain candidates that make all of these promises they can’t keep.

Patty_Melt's avatar

@r u kidding me, you are a bit slow with calling for epidemic.
The medical authorities have it classed as pandemic.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

@Patty_Melt I was halfway joking but yes, it’s a pandemic coming to a street corner near you.

Patty_Melt's avatar

Of course you were. Wishing death on someone for their political pursuits would be inappropriate.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

Off-topic but I’m actually pretty concerned for my 92 year old grandmother, my wife’s 97 year old grandmother and several relatives with other medical conditions.

Demosthenes's avatar

Biden’s having a good night. Looking more and more likely he will be the nominee. If nothing else, this should show how terrible a candidate Hillary was. Maybe this bolsters my theory that some Sanders votes last election were anti-Hillary voters who sat out the election or voted third party. Not saying this proves Biden can beat Trump, but it suggests that Trump won in part because Hillary was so unappealing and Biden isn’t to the same degree.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

I think Trump will beat himself and any Democrat will win.

Jonsblond's avatar

@ARE_you_kidding_me “I just hate to see the false hope people have in certain candidates that make all of these promises they can’t keep.”

I’m beginning to agree with you. I’m so fed up with the Democratic Party. I’m going to stick with voting locally. At least my vote will mean something where I live.

Darth_Algar's avatar

Consider this: There are currently 5 conservative and 4 liberal judges on the Supreme Court. Whoever’s sitting in the Oval Office for the next four years will certainly be replacing 1, possibly 2, of them (most likely Ruth Bader Ginsburg and/or Stephen Breyer, two of the solidly liberal judges). Do you want that decision to be made by Donald Trump? Think this nation can afford that?

If you want to ensure a solidly conservative SCOTUS that will vote to strip rights from women, LGBT folks, minorities, immigrants and will favor evangelical Christianity, for decades to come then go ahead – Vote Bernie-or-bust, vote 3rd party, set the election out.

But if you want to ensure that those groups at least hold on that what ground they have gained then swallow your indignation and vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

JLeslie's avatar

Supposedly, the black vote is very important and the Blacks will vote for Biden. I read what @canidmajor posted, and maybe some blacks think that way, but I don’t think Biden or most white people see it that way at all. I never once thought about Biden being second fiddle to a black man, I never once thought of it in terms of race that Biden was VP to Obama the president. But, hey, if that gets the black vote that’s just fine.

Blacks coming out in droves to vote could swing MI and OH over to blue.

I think Biden maybe speaks to Pennsylvania well too. I knew Pennsylvania would go to Trump last time, and I think most likely might again, but Biden can speak the language of the blue collar Catholic in Pennsylvania maybe. Oh, he has that in the Midwest, he’s a Catholic. Buttigieg was good at that too.

If Biden pick Klobuchar for VP that could also help lock in the Midwest.

We need the swing states. Bernie can’t get Florida. Even Biden is a slim chance in Florida. Actually, forget Florida. Lol.

It’s all about the Midwest. Maybe AZ will flip to blue? Unlikely though.

Demosthenes's avatar

@Darth_Algar I agree. Maybe not quite so alarmist, but a solidly conservative SCOTUS would be taking this country in a direction I do not want. Yet good luck convincing Democrats of that. Getting them to care about the SCOTUS and vote on it the way Republicans do is like herding cats. They just don’t seem to care as much and I don’t know why since they sure like to prevent Trump’s nominations. Voting third party and sitting out doesn’t make sense to me if you truly believe Trump is bad for the country and you don’t want more conservative judges on the bench. Obviously if you think Trump is fine or you think Biden/Sanders are worse, that’s your prerogative to sit out or vote third party. But that’s not what I’m seeing. I’m seeing people who’ve been raging about Trump for the past four years acting like they’re not going to do everything they can to get him out of office and that doesn’t make much sense to me.

gorillapaws's avatar

@Darth_Algar “But if you want to ensure that those groups at least hold on that what ground they have gained then swallow your indignation and vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.”

After hearing people make their case, I’m even more convince that if the Democrats put Biden on the ticket, Trump will wipe the floor with him. I was kind of hoping there might be some truly exciting insight into his electablity that I hadn’t considered or heard. Biden’s team is literally hiding him to minimize the stupid shit he says on camera. They can’t hide him from Trump. You already have Anti-Biden Ads put out by people on the right (here’s another). How is Biden going to respond to that? The Democratic primary will determine whether Trump is our next president, that’s why I care so much, because I don’t want the SCOTUS to be fucked for a generation!

Look, I’ve been a Bernie supporter, there’s no secret in that, but the main reason I support him is because I know he’s objectively the only one that can beat Trump. It’s so heartbreaking to hear the same people who claimed Clinton was more electable making the same case for Biden’s electability. It’s like they didn’t learn a damn thing from 2016. I called it back then too. This neoliberal centrism is a losing strategy.

Trump ran to the LEFT of Clinton, and he will again run to the LEFT of Biden (if he’s the nominee) with a populist economic message. Biden may be winning with OLDER black voters, who along other older demographics get their news from corporate media (which has been shielding Biden from a lot of the attacks). Sadly, Biden has a terrible record with policies that hurt the black community. I promise you that Trump will be happy to rake him over the coals for it in a debate and in ads. I don’t think that support is nearly as strong as you guys think it is.

“Yeah, it’s great that Bernie has such support among the demographic that’s least likely to vote.”

You don’t get it. Those are NEW votes. Having a candidate that brings out young voters is critical. The older Dems will already come out and vote for whoever the nominee is. The way you beat Trump is bringing out people who normally stay home (the largest plurality of eligible voters) and independents (who are all over the map ideologically, not just bunched up in the center between the left and right btw). Even a small change in that group’s turnout can make a massive impact on the outcome of the election.

@kritiper “The Democrats who didn’t vote for Hillary because they assumed incorrectly she would win anyway…”

I didn’t vote for Hillary because I CORECTLY calculated that she would lose the Rust Belt and ultimately the election. For me supporting Jill Stein was more important than having Hillary lose by the same margin to Trump. My calculation is that having a viable 3rd party is more important to our country’s long term future. It’s becoming clear to me that the Democratic party is beyond saving. I thought Bernie had a chance to rescue it, but it’s looking more and more like it will be forever the party of helping fuckers like Trump get elected.

It’s just so demoralizing that the party is doing everything it can to put up a senile guy with an awful record against Trump…

ANef_is_Enuf's avatar

I dunno. I live in a swing state and I know one Biden supporter (who is over 60 and male.) Everyone else is Sanders or Trump, most people I know hate Biden. I’ll personally vote for anyone who isn’t Trump, but I’m pretty convinced he’ll win again at this point.

JLeslie's avatar

@ANef_is_Enuf It will be interesting to see who wins the primary in OH, and by how much. Yours is coming on the 17th right? Like Florida. I have a parade to go to that day, so I guess I might vote early.

ANef_is_Enuf's avatar

Yep, the 17th. I’m curious, myself, because I know I live in an area that’s hard to predict from election to election. But, with the GM stuff causing so much change locally (as well as so many families moving out of the area) I really don’t know what to expect. Though, healthcare access is a big deal to most people I know.

JLeslie's avatar

@ANef_is_Enuf Is OH an open primary? If it’s closed we only know which way Democrats are leaning, it won’t tell us about the Independents. My state is a closed primary, but I think Florida will go to Trump in the end anyway, but you never know. The Democrats in Florida are pretty riled up.

Demosthenes's avatar

@gorillapaws I get the argument that Hillary and Biden have similar centrist platforms so there’s no reason to expect that platform to win in 2020 if it didn’t win in 2016, but Hillary was loathed by a significant percentage of the population. She also had scandals attached to her, including one that broke shortly before November. I agree that there are not enough significant differences between them ideologically to argue that Biden will beat Trump on ideology alone, but people don’t vote just on that (the amount of people complaining about Trump’s personality should attest to that). I think there’s a good chance that you’re right, that Biden will be Hillary 2.0, but I also think there’s another chance that because he is not as despised as Hillary, because he is not as dogged by scandals, he may receive more votes (this isn’t purely speculation; some evidence for this is the fact that Biden is winning some states, like Michigan, that Sanders won in 2016). We’ll see.

gorillapaws's avatar

@Demosthenes …“Hillary was loathed by a significant percentage of the population.”

To some degree, I think you’re right. Unfortunately, I can assure you there are plenty of skeletons in Biden’s electoral record for people to loathe him. The press and the DNC have done a pretty good job of shielding voters from most of it. The recent surge in Biden’s delegates happened very quickly and there hasn’t been many opportunities to educate the public on how terrible his record has been with so many candidates drowning out the conversation.

I can assure you that Trump will not hold back in bringing up all of this up.

”...She also had scandals attached to her…”

If Biden is the nominee, I can assure you that we’re going to be hearing a lot more about Hunter Biden. The guy’s entire career was a product of nepotism. He was booted from the Navy for cocaine. He was put on the board of Amtrak, and later the notorious Ukraine Energy company’s board. None of this was illegal in all likelihood, but voters don’t like hearing stories about the children of powerful politicians being given positions they’re not qualified for and being paid money they haven’t really earned. If it smells like a scandal that’s mostly what counts. Hunter was even dating his dead brother’s widow after his marriage disintegrated due to his drug use and other alleged debauchery. It shouldn’t matter, but it certainly could.

@Caravanfan I don’t buy that analysis. The exit polls consistently show that Democratic voters support Medicare For All for example. That contradicts the notion that the Democratic electorate hasn’t shifted. Bernie’s losses are more a product of the establishment’s maneuvering and less about the ideology. They were able to drown out Sanders in the Primary with a very crowded field, and then quickly coalesce behind Biden before any opportunities for a 1v1 Biden/Sanders debate. Voters have been gaslit into thinking Biden is the most electable choice and voters want Trump out. Ironically, their decision to vote for Biden will help Trump win.

Caravanfan's avatar

Fair enough. I disagree. You think it’s about policy. It’s not. It’s about personality and impressions. People didn’t hate Clinton because she was a centrist (okay maybe you did). People hated her because she was an uncharismatic woman.

Heck I’m a centrist and I didn’t like her.

gorillapaws's avatar

@Caravanfan They hated her because the middle class is shrinking and neoliberal policy and crony capitalism has been selling them out for decades. This Trump ad perfectly sums up how he ran to the LEFT of Clinton and why neoliberal centrism will lose again.

Demosthenes's avatar

I thought people hated her because she’s a Strong Woman and everyone’s sexist…

But seriously, I agree that in many cases personality and impressions trump policy and specifics. I can’t count how many times someone said they like Trump because he “tells it like it is”...that kind of thing does get votes.

Caravanfan's avatar

No gorilla. You hated her because of that. That didn’t bother me. I hated her because of her treatment of Monica Lewinsky.

It’s. Not. Always. About. Policy.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

I hated Clinton because she came off as a bit sociopathic and narcissistic. What was her policy anyway??

JLeslie's avatar

The media did Hillary in. They easily could have not dwelled on Lewinsky, and for some reason the media was happy to say Hillary was a dud with no personality, and I just don’t see it.

Now, the media is on board with messaging that Biden had a big win Super Tuesday, and although they mention it’s the black vote that made the difference, do people even really understand that in the Southern states the Democratic Party isn’t what I would call diverse, but rather dominated by African Americans. Meaning African Americans are the majority in the Democratic Party in the Southern states, I don’t know if it’s over 50% in all the Southern states, but it is in some. Does that represent the party? Does it represent white Democrats? In the country, the Democratic Party is 60% white non-Hispanic last I looked. The other 40% is split among all minorities.

Many black people I know in the South are pro-life, a significant amount of them were against gay marriage and gay people in the military even if they identify and vote Democrat. Statistics go along with my experience that a very significant amount of black voters in the South are pro-life, and against gay rights, my experience is some of them were outright hostile on social media at the suggestion that gay rights are a civil right, they felt they owned the term civil rights. They decided who will likely be up against Trump, and their votes mostly won’t count at all in the end. The whole dynamic is very interesting. Of course, there are whites and Hispanics who like Biden, I’m not saying there aren’t.

The media has decided the way to win is with Biden and they will continue to message it. This might very well get the big win in the end, I don’t know. Will I t influence people to go to the polls? Influence independents?

The problem last election is the media decided Hillary was an easy win against Trump, but they constantly put her down. They put her down for things I think were unfair.

I don’t mind that some people had a different POV, not everyone has to agree with me, but the large majority of people are extremely influenced by the media without even realizing it.

Monica sucked Bill’s dick, just picture some man licking your wife, sliding inside of her, and bringing her to orgasm, and see if you (I’m talking any man not only jellies here) can muster being gracious towards him and wishing him well. Being asked about it in public. Hillary actually did eventually wish the best for Monica, and said she hoped Monica could move forward. Hillary never should have been asked by anyone about that affair. Some people don’t respect Hillary for staying in the marriage, but would it affect her ability in her job or as a president? I don’t think so. Certainly not compared to Trump grabbing women.

The media mentioned Monica’s name relentlessly, rather than simply calling her the intern or a White House scandal, or Bill’s scandal, and people hate Hillary for it. The media basically cursed Monica into a life with a scarlet letter. Hillary is still a wife, and Monica up until extremely recently called it all consensual. The Me Too movement has caused her to rethink a little, but still demanding Hillary behave a certain way concerning that affair is completely unfair. Just my opinion.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Sociopathic narcissist? Don’t get me started. But let’s look at the claim of Bernie’s mediocrity. For his entire political life Bernie has made the EXACT claims word for word that built @gorillapaws’ exquisite Trump ad. But Bernie as before is the only candidate to articulate the fact that it is the system itself that is engineered to deliver the results decried in that ad. That ad is right on the money up to the absurd implication that Trump is the man to work the miracle. That anyone could float so dystopian a view of reality —Trump as salvation and have it taken seriously leaves me in a state of near despair. Folks, we really do get the government we deserve, and if those poor deluded souls in their asinine red hats can place their prospects in the hands of an empty headed criminal clown, so be it.

gorillapaws's avatar

@JLeslie “The media has decided the way to win is with Biden and they will continue to message it.”

They decided the way to win for themselves is Biden. Bernie was an existential threat to their business model (and by “their” I’m referring to their parent companies like Comcast, AT&T, etc.). I can assure you that they’re more than happy to have Trump for another 4 years despite what they say on air.

I also disagree with the Media being unfair to Hilary. Give me a break! They would include the super delegates (who hadn’t voted yet) in the delegate counts, sneak Clinton debate questions ahead of time, the 2016 primary coverage was entirely one-sided.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@JLeslie You are correct that black voters, particularly in the South are fundamentally conservative, which shrieks so loudly that it should burst your eardrums on the racial mechanics which underly the Republican party. You could not devise a more accurate barometer on the actual deformation of the party of Lincoln than the affiliation of black voters in this country!

stanleybmanly's avatar

I also disagree with the idea that it is the media that drives policy. The more accurate observation is that it is sordid sensationalism which drives the media. Monica and Stormy are big news for the same reason that an increasing number of us get our news from late night television and internet knock offs of the National Enquirer.

chyna's avatar

As of today, 3/11/20, it does appear that Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
I do hope he can beat trump. Every one that wants trump out needs to get behind Biden, IMO.

LostInParadise's avatar

The Democrats are turning out in good numbers in the primaries. Biden is no progressive, but he is certainly less conservative than Trump. I would prefer Sanders, but I would have no problem voting for Biden over Trump.

I heard a speech by Biden on the radio. He reached out to Sanders supporters. He spoke in the self-assured unifying tone of voice that I was hoping to hear from Sanders and Warren. I think the presidential vote is going to be close. There is a good chance that Trump will again lose the popular vote but get a majority of electoral votes, but I think Biden has a decent chance of winning.

kritiper's avatar

@gorillapaws Well, I wasn’t speaking about you specifically, but in general.

JLeslie's avatar

@stanleybmanly I agree that it’s sordid sensationalism that is a huge driver for the media. That translates to money of course. Although, with the advent of Trump, some parts of the media, like MSNBC for one, has so much venom for the Republican Party that it has ruined what used to be much more balanced political conversation. I do feel that now the media is trying to tell politicians what to say, they use shame, and other manipulations to try to get the masses and the politicians to behave as they deem appropriate rather than letting the consumer decide. I think they had the opportunity to stay more balanced and people would have still tuned in rather, they shifted similar to the Fox format, and that’s when I stopped watching regularly.

@gorillapaws I would think Bloomberg would be a more pro-business candidate. Maybe they felt they couldn’t control him?

KNOWITALL's avatar

Biden beat Trump in Missouri at the primaries. 396k to 299k. Very interesting.

JLeslie's avatar

@KNOWITALL What do mean? How was Trump up against Biden?

KNOWITALL's avatar

@JLeslie In the Mo primaries yesterday. I can post in the Tidepool for you.

Demosthenes's avatar

The fact is that older, white, more conservative voters are turning out for Biden. They are the ones expanding the electorate, not young people.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

There are again, conservatives voting for Biden in the Democratic primary who are doing so just to block Sanders. They will vote Trump in the end.

Caravanfan's avatar

Bloomberg lost because he ran into the Elizabeth Warren’s buzzsaw. I was literally cheering.

JLeslie's avatar

I agree Warren was a huge factor re Bloomberg, but most people I know were not cheering her on but found her annoying. I found her annoying and awful regarding Bloomberg, and I felt it was a Hail Mary move, and in the end it didn’t pay off for her, although if she feels she did a public service to women and the party then I guess she can feel good about that.

I completely believe Bloomberg, I think he answered honestly, he released the women, have the women said anything? I’m not saying Bloomberg was the best candidate, I’m only saying I’m disgusted with how Warren went after Bloomberg, how Buttigieg and that one Latin American reporter went after Klobuchar, and disgusted how the debates were conducted in general.

KNOWITALL's avatar

@ARE_you_kidding_me I know a lot of Reps don’t vote in the primaries either, but Dems are fired up so they all showed up. We’ll see.

Jonsblond's avatar

Young people are needed in the general election. This man explains it well. Young voters reject Joe Biden:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7yDpewgBj7A

JLeslie's avatar

List of open primary states. Quite a few are Southern and Super Tuesday states. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States

When you walk up to the voting places near me there are very large, bold-print signs in English and Spanish letting you know you can’t vote if you aren’t a registered Republican or Democrat.

I think it takes some real chutzpah to vote for someone you definitely not want in office to try to sabotage the election. I do believe some people do it though.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@Jonsblond – re: young people, check out the dramatic generational voting difference in MI.

The older generation has decided to ignore the will of those who have the most to lose.

Jonsblond's avatar

^ It’s very sad. I know a lot of depressed millennials right now. They feel that boomers don’t care about them. Their words.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@Jonsblond: “They feel that boomers don’t care about them. Their words.”

My 17-year-old daughter the other day: “Why are they doing this?”

Jonsblond's avatar

They can’t afford to go to a doctor. They are in student debt. They have to rent an apartment or home with several other people because they can’t afford to purchase their own. Biden has not said one thing that convinces them he’ll help them. It will be the same for them whether it’s Trump or Biden.

These are their words, not mine.

My 27 year old son is moving in with us this weekend. My 25 yr old son is saving money for much needed dental work and lives with 4 others. My 16 yr old son is disgusted with how Sanders has been treated by the DNC and is ready to move out of the country once he graduates high school. He thinks Warren is a sellout and can’t understand why she hasn’t supported Bernie yet.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@Jonsblond – The only good news is that even though older people are voting Biden, many do support our agenda. Exit polls consistently show support for government taking over health insurance completely (single-payer), etc. Yet they support Biden. It is likely due to their media consumption. Older people generally watch tv, so they are consuming MSNBC, CNN and other corporate news that has gone all in on Biden being more electable. It might seem absurd to those of us who aren’t infected with this nonsense, but they might really believe that Biden is more electable. Corporate media works.

JLeslie's avatar

The older people remember the threat of communism, remember identifying America as a capitalistic meritocracy, and words like socialism make them nervous. Bernie should never have identified himself with the word socialist.

Your 17 year old doesn’t understand why people are afraid of Socialism because I guess they aren’t being taught what is happening in Venezuela. Batista, Castro, and alike.

Moreover, people are worried that Bernie doesn’t really understand how it’s done in Sweden. Sweden had problems when they first went more socialist, and they had to change how they do things.

The older people simply are more wary of things that sound too good to be true.

I want affordable tuition, healthcare for all, etc, but drastic changes to our system are scary. I think if older people saw there were safeguards they would be more willing. I didn’t know Bernie will do Medicare for 55 and up in the first year. I’m on board with that as long as it’s re-evaluated before it goes to 45 and up. It’s hard to roll back a program once it’s out there, better to be cautious as we roll it out, or to show they want to be cautious, people might be less afraid.

Most of us democrats care about fiscal responsibility, and we want to be cautious. According to Bernie more Medicare should mean lower healthcare costs. Let’s prove it. Then everyone will get on board to continue to lower the age someone can join Medicare. People thought ACA would lower healthcare costs. Not from where I sit. I’d love to see stats on that.

Older citizens have seen government programs work well, and government programs not work well. It’s hard to tell what will be the good ones without unforeseen negative consequences.

17 year olds tend to idealistic.

Also, when I was 22 out of college I lived without roommates. That was 30 years ago. I think that’s fairly common. California and NY are extended that are ridiculous, and it’s horrible that housing is so expensive in those cities. I’m seeing it on Nashville too. It’s awful. It honestly makes me wish my husband didn’t want to work, but that’s a complicated personal story.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@JLeslie: “Your 17 year old doesn’t understand why people are afraid of Socialism because I guess they aren’t being taught what is happening in Venezuela. Batista, Castro, and alike.”

My 17-year-old can school you in Latin American history and the history of US imperialism and global capitalism.

Spare me the “17 year olds tend to be idealistic” horseshit. It’s her fucking planet, and you don’t give a shit if it becomes uninhabitable, if she has healthcare, is able to go to college, or spends her life in soul-crushing debt. You don’t get to lecture the youth about anything. They are far more informed than you or me. They are far more engaged, and have a more realistic and sober view of what their future holds thanks to the actions of you and me.

The youth are better than us in every possible way.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@JLeslie: “Most of us democrats care about fiscal responsibility,”

Bullshit.

Where is the “fiscal responsibility” when they ok obscene military budgets?

We are in a crisis and people want to talk about “how to pay for” healthcare? F*ck off. You’re putting a price on human life. Own up to the fact that you’re willing to kill people so you can keep the private insurance industry afloat.

Jonsblond's avatar

People in their late 20s @JLeslie are needing roommates. Not kids in college. Boomers were married and owning homes at their age.

You do underestimate the intelligence of high school kids. I don’t think you spend much time with them.

JLeslie's avatar

Lol. Your anger at me gets you nowhere. Don’t tell me my intention. I’m explaining why older citizens are wary. If you don’t want to listen don’t. How will you ever win them over if you call them idiots. I was not calling young people idiots, I was saying they aren’t understand the fears of the older population.

I grew up in socialized medicine (military care) my dad still uses military and VA healthcare, and we are very happy with that care overall. It isn’t perfect, but nothing is. Compared to private care, I’ll take the socialized care any day. I’m basically on your side. My friends sho use Medicare don’t want to give it up, but we talk about the fraud and abuse in the system all the time. I wish candidates would address that. Fraud done by the doctors, I’m not talking about patients.

That’s great that she learns about Latin America, does she know a lot of Venezuelans and Cubans? I do. It’s not just a text book for me. They aren’t crazy for worrying socialism will be like Venezuela and not like Denmark. It’s too real for them, they went through it, they have trouble trusting it will be different.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@JLeslie: “That’s great that she learns about Latin America, does she know a lot of Venezuelans and Cubans?”

I’m not going to discuss Latin American history, economics and imperialism with you. You’re out of your element.

JLeslie's avatar

@Jonsblond I had a roommate until I got engaged. Actually, I didn’t move in with my fiancé until we were already engaged 6 months. I was 24 going on 25. I think that’s very common. If I hadn’t got married I probably would have had a roommate into my late 20’s. Maybe by 27 or 28, just thinking of my salary, I could have lived on my own, but my place wouldn’t have been as nice.

All of my college friends lived with a roommate or boyfriend after college. All of them. Most of them live in Michigan. My husband lived alone some of the time, but his parents bought him a house to live in for college, and then when he paid the mortgage, that mortgage was very low. He could not have done that with his own earnings.

JLeslie's avatar

@hmmmmmm I am not trying to discuss that. This is why people like you have trouble understanding why people are afraid. You don’t even care that they are afraid.

hmmmmmm's avatar

^ If people are afraid that people won’t die because they can’t afford medical care, then those people are assholes and complete fools.

Do you believe that people who are < 45 years old are afraid? Do you believe that they’re terrified? Do you believe that their enemy is their grandparents? They are – and their fears are legit and grounded in reality.

JLeslie's avatar

@Jonsblond I’m not a boomer. I too wish that housing was much more reasonable, and that wages were better. It’s getting worse. I do agree something has to be done.

Sagacious's avatar

@Jonsblond It’s simply that a high school degree is not worth what it once was. To get the jobs we got with a HS degree people must have a bachelor degree now. That’s life. And it isn’t unexpected.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@Sagacious: “It’s simply that a high school degree is not worth what it once was. To get the jobs we got with a HS degree people must have a bachelor degree now. That’s life.”

Right. So, the logical step would be to make public colleges and universities free so people can have the same opportunities that you had.

JLeslie's avatar

@hmmmmmm Yes, I believe young people are afraid. I think some people are helping along to being terrified. Terrified doesn’t work. It paralyzes people and especially our country.

I don’t think their enemy is their grandparents, not in my world anyway, maybe in yours. My grandparents were liberal and believed in many of the social programs and if they were alive would want reasonable housing and decent wages.

hmmmmmm's avatar

@JLeslie: “I don’t think their enemy is their grandparents, not in my world anyway, maybe in yours.”

Yet in 2016 and again in 2020, they helped elect Trump.

Jonsblond's avatar

@JLeslie your statements to @hmmmmmm show exactly how out of touch you are with millennials.

seawulf575's avatar

So to look at this whole socialism aspect from a different angle, let’s consider for a moment what these glorious ideals would actually cost. We can go to somewhere like Sweden or Denmark as a perfect example. They are paying about 60% of their income in taxes. And that is ALL the people, not just some. Now it is progressive so the poor might pay 48% and the rich are closer to 60%, but they all pay. I know, they get healthcare and education and other social services…I get that. But let’s think about that for a moment. How many people are out there now that are living pay check to pay check? How many people are spending ⅓ to ½ of their take-home income on housing…rent or mortgage? How many people have their personal budgets adjusted for what they are taking home now? And not all of those people are going to school, nor do all of those people have to pay for child care and some are basically healthy so they don’t need a lot of healthcare. So the suggestion is that we effectively do an increase in taxes, basically doubling what people pay now. How many people would absolutely flounder when they don’t have enough money to pay all the bills and buy food or gasoline? Forget old and young, forget rich and poor. The rich could probably weather the storm, but many of the poor and middle class would be declaring bankruptcy and losing their homes. Or starving…take your pick. And as people start getting squeezed, what is the natural reaction? They need more money. So people that are selling thing suddenly want to charge more so the cost of living will go up as well.
This scenario has carried through many, many times in mankind’s history. Why would anyone in their right mind believe it wouldn’t play out again here?

JLeslie's avatar

@Jonsblond Yeah, but the older people vote! You need to persuade them. Gotta deal with reality.

I’m explaining how they think. I’m not even completely in line with “them” I’m just explaining them.

Sagacious's avatar

No. Each generation’s opportunities are unique to them. The job market drives the required education. If people do not want to study beyond high school then learning a craft or trade would be their path.

Jonsblond's avatar

@JLeslie I understand but I don’t think you watched the video I shared that explains why Democrats need the younger generation in the general election. That was my point. They didn’t show up for Kerry or Clinton but they did show up for Obama. They aren’t going to show up for Biden. It was the youth vote that helped Obama win because they did show up. Older people tend to vote for Republicans.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

It’s not that a high school degree will not get you the same jobs it once did. It will. Those jobs just don’t exist in any meaningful numbers now. The jobs that exist today require a skilled workforce. This is why so many college degrees will not find you work either.

Caravanfan's avatar

@Jonsblond Well, my daughter is 19 and she voted for Warren. She plans on voting for Biden in the general election as do most of her friends. They’re not going to stay home. Let’s hope others have common sense like my daughter. Otherwise we are totally fucked.

JLeslie's avatar

@Jonsblond I hadn’t watched your link all the way through, I went back now and did.

Here’s my response:

I agree the media decided Biden is the one to win and they manipulate the messaging. I complained about the media already up above in my initial answers, or was that another Q? We are actually not far apart on that. It pisses me off too!

I even talked about it regarding the black vote somewhere. The media harps on the black vote, I talked about the black vote here on this Q, risking being called a racist, or that I am stereotyping and generalizing. I think the media helped Obama, they seemed to love the idea of a black president.

If young people want Bernie then they need to vote. Maybe the problem this time is the black vote is going with Biden, not that old people are voting with Biden. Couldn’t you look at it that way too? Super Tuesday was full of states full of black Democrats, there is still a chance for Bernie, don’t give up.

I encourage everyone to get out and vote in the primaries for who they want. I also would be drilling into young people that it might be unfair, but if Biden gets the nomination, still go vote for the Democrat. If they don’t, it will be their fault Trump is still in according to your video. The video is saying the young people are the secret to winning.

They weren’t energized for Hillary or Kerri? Well, how about being logical about the choices at hand in the end. Trump will continue on his course. Biden will be able to correct the course a little. Maybe not to where the young people want it, but at least better than nothing.

See, that’s part of the idealism I talk about. The young people want it just their way or they won’t bother. Maybe they think it’s an integrity thing, I think for people like you and @gorillapaws that’s what it is, you don’t want to cast a vote for someone who doesn’t fit in with your morals and values regarding the future of the country. I understand that.

How old are the young people who voted for Obama now? 32–45 maybe? What about the young people who didn’t vote for Kerri? How old are they now? I don’t know exactly what age you count as young. In my circles I have tons of 70 year olds around me who loved Obama. Plenty of older adults who wanted Bernie last time, but now that group is a little split on Bernie, but interestingly, Biden was not their pick. My bubble is different than the media schtick I hear and see on TV.

Anyway, I appreciate your explanations and POV. I mean that seriously. You cause me to think and question my ideas. You are more in touch with young people than I am. I have my niece and nephew, but I’m not around them very much. My guess would be they won’t bother to vote in the primary, but will vote against Trump. I don’t know for sure though. I don’t think they are very political, but they hate Trump.

deckardRick's avatar

Biden will make history.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@Sagacious That is no longer true. The traditional crafts and and trades are now the domain of immigrants. The kids are absolutely correct on the failures of established politics. And every one of those ills, student debt; crippling healthcare expense, the environmental destruction of the earth, staggering debt—all of it is the political legacy of my generation, now in the main mostly secure behind our medicare with our mortgages paid in full. Every one of those ills, whether we recognize it or not are the result of political decisions in the long run engineered to facilitate the transfer of wealth to the top! They are all just another way of telling those so burdened “you are and will remain poorer than your parents.” Bernie has recognized and preached against this trend for better than 30 years. We have been indoctrinated from birth to recoil at his remedies, but unlike any of his fellow aspirants, there’s no disputing his diagnosis.

stanleybmanly's avatar

@seawulf575 your analysis misses the point that most of us would gladly pay 60% of our income or beyond if guaranteed housing healthcare, education, etc. were part of the deal. Try to find a Dane or Swede willing to trade their setup for ours. The housing crisis here exemplifies the actual shortfall of the capitalist model. If you can’t gouge enough profit from erecting an “ affordable” house because the return on a payday loan offers 10 times the rate of profit on a mortgage, who’s going to build the house?

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Dutchess_III's avatar

If we can get everyone on the same damn page and vote for which ever democrat is elected as the nominee, WHOEVER IT IS, then we can beat trump. Is Biden my first choice? No. Will I vote for him if it comes down to that? Hell yes. Is Bernie my first choice? No. But ditto.
I really think I could have gotten behind Warren. I was disappointed when she dropped out.

From the Washington Post… New data makes it clear. Non voters handed the presidency to trump.

seawulf575's avatar

@stanleybmanly so you’d gladly be willing and able to suddenly give up 30% more of your pay? Good to know. So I don’t want you to be spouting about how foolish the turd is when some fool socialist finally gets elected and pushes it.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Just think about whether those expenses currently consume 30% of today’s average budget, then get back to me. Then we can discuss whether or not you believe these problems will self correct under predatory capitalism.

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gorillapaws's avatar

America is already a socialist country. Taxpayers gave away trillions to banks in quantitative easing, we give away something like 20 billion annually in direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, we tax the wealthiest Americans at lower effective rates than the middle class. We fund pharma research with taxpayer grants and then turn around and get price-gouged on the medicine we helped them invent.

America has the shittiest version of Socialism in the history of the world.

@JLeslie ”...you don’t want to cast a vote for someone who doesn’t fit in with your morals and values regarding the future of the country. I understand that.”

I see the Democratic party itself as the biggest obstacle to progressive change. They are going to keep setting up the parameters of the general election so we get to choose between the lesser of two evils until our economy is completely decimated and our planet is permanently fucked. They will rig elections, coordinate behind the scenes with the corporate media, and pull every lever they have at their disposal to prevent the country restoring the balance of wealth to pre-Reagan levels.

I hope the millennial generation stands together and votes 3rd party in the general if it’s Biden v. Trump. Biden is a lost cause anyways. I want the Boomer generation to become terrified of betraying the younger generation, in the same way the Republican party has become terrified of looking weak to their base. Instead of thinking “we can’t win unless we pick a moderate” they’ll be thinking “we can’t win unless we pick a progressive.”

As long as we keep playing along and keeping these guys in power this country is screwed.

“Biden will be able to correct the course a little.”

What has Biden accomplished except moving the Democratic party further to the right?: the war on drugs, the crime bill, NAFTA, Permanent Normal Trade with China, TPP, War in Iraq, the Bankruptcy bill? I’d rather him lose than help take the Democratic party even further right than it is. This used to be the party of FDR, JFK and the New Deal. Now it’s become a firewall against Progressivism to protect the wealth of fuckers like Bloomberg, and keep the jobs of lobbyists, insiders and “political consultants,” and so the children of politicians like Hunter Biden can keep snorting their coke, and the revolving door can keep spinning.

If Biden is the nominee, you’re going to see Trump make him look like a pathetic sad old man. And then when Trump wins, you’re going to hear the same people come out and blame millennials and Bernie supporters.

@Caravanfan I can’t apologize on behalf of other people, but I can say is that those remarks were not ok.

Caravanfan's avatar

@gorillapaws You and I have always been good.

Caravanfan's avatar

@gorillapaws And I realize you’ll probably discount the article because of it’s source, but the libertarian Reason.com thinks he’s more to the left than you’re giving him credit for.
https://reason.com/2020/03/04/joe-biden-is-no-moderate/

That said, he also supported the absolutely disastrous AB5 law here in California so he’s not my favorite person right now either.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Yet Biden will get the “hold your nose” vote just as the Democratic establishment hopes. It works for me.

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JLeslie's avatar

@gorillapaws I’m not pushing Biden. I don’t feel like he’s a great candidate. I also sincerely understand why it’s important to you to stand against the current political machine. I genuinely meant that I see it as a moral issue for you, an integrity issue.

I think you should work hard to get the vote out for Bernie and other progressives for the primaries in the future. You believe in it, you should. That’s America. I think the country and elections can change over time.

Lots will change over time. I even argue the electoral college will change as more and more northerners move south. Microsoft and Amazon are in Nashville. Amazon has a new distribution and is building a headquarters. I feel certain that is bringing more progressives to that state. Atlanta continues to attract people from the north. Florida is a toss up always. Arizona is becoming more purple.

I’m wary of how sure you are that Bernie’s got it down. There are sure to be unforeseen challenges and consequences with his plans.

I do trust Bernie. Meaning, I believe he is honest, wants the best for the country, and will listen to people. I don’t agree with everything he wants to do.

I think Trump will likely do very well if he debates Biden. If he debates Bernie, that also could be bad.

I see no perfect answer. I wish we knew who they would pick for VP.

I say again what I said to @Jonsblond If young people are your hope, that’s a shaky group. I didn’t vote until I was 30-ish. When Bush ran for president I ran to the polls to vote for Gore. Before that I was flaky about politics. I disliked Reagan. He increase the deficit and was horrible on protecting the health of our country because of his alignment with the religious right. I was too young to vote in those elections anyway, but my point is even though I was semi interested or annoyed, it didn’t get me to vote. No matter how educated and aware young people are, they still don’t have the perspective of someone who has lived 40 years.

I’m not dismissing young people, their perspective matters, their creativity, and they certainly might understand the world in a way that is different and important. It’s like going from staff person to management. When you become a manager you better understand why managers are how they are. Like child to parent. When the child becomes a parent there are aha moments.

You will get what you want maybe. Adults like you are leading younger people to not vote or vote third party. I’m sure there are some young people listening to voices like yours. I don’t agree with it at this point in history, but we can just disagree on that.

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Caravanfan's avatar

@gorillapaws Oh, don’t get me wrong, I agree with Tapper. But we have a two party system and we are stuck with Biden. Remember, I didn’t like him either. And in other circumstances I’d have no problem with a protest vote. Every other Republican candidate for president, elected or non elected were reasonably thoughtful intelligent people, even if I disagreed with them in policy. I would have no problem with a protest vote against, say Gore to put Bush in power. I didn’t agree with the votes at the time, but I understand and respect them. I even can respect the protest votes 4 years ago for people who didn’t understand how bad Trump could be.

However, now it’s different. Now we know that Trump is so awful, such a terrible human being, and causing such permanent and lasting damage to our republic that I can not respect any vote that willingly puts him in power again knowing full well what a smoking pile of crap both he and his administration is.

I was a Klobuchar fan. My daughter was a Warren fan. My best friend was a Sanders fan. I would have been delighted with ANY candidate, including Sanders. I honestly don’t care who the Democrats put up. For the sake of humanity, Trump needs to go, as do all the Republican down ballot toadies who supported him.

seawulf575's avatar

@stanleybmanly No, the question is, do those things consume 30% of your budget? I know in my world they do not. How about your world?

stanleybmanly's avatar

I don’t understand what you are asking. I’m probably luckier than most in that I no longer have a mortgage. But my guess is that the average household has far less than 30% of its income as discretionary.

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tinyfaery's avatar

How anyone can look at what is happening with Coronavirus and say Trump and Biden are the same, and having Trump for 4 more years is fine as long as we get to rebel against the system? Ideology is NOT more important than people’s lives.Ugh.

Demosthenes's avatar

The “Bernie or Bust” folks want to have their cake and eat it too. They want to claim they hate Trump and think he’s horrible for this country and that four more years of Trump and Trump-appointed judges is unacceptable but they also do not want to vote him out of office, and they want to claim that anyone who points out this cognitive dissonance is just a hateful bigot who’s “ruining this country”. Sure.

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hmmmmmm's avatar

Whatever helps you guys sleep at night.

Note: It’s worth keeping in mind that this isn’t technically over yet. Trump Biden hasn’t won yet. He doesn’t even have half the delegates needed to clinch the nomination, and Bernie is only 150 (or so) delegates behind. So there is a chance that Democrats (45+ Dems) will stop Biden (Trump) before it’s too late. They might have second thoughts and decide that they like social security, and don’t hate their kids and grandkids as much as they thought.

Demosthenes's avatar

Look, if you support Trump or truly believe that Trump and Biden would be equally disastrous for this country, no difference at all between them, then I’m not talking about you. I’m talking about the people who think we cannot gamble with climate change and who think that more conservative appointments to the SCOTUS will have generation-long negative consequences for the nation and yet are willing to chance further environmental rollbacks and conservative appointments in the name of spiting the Democratic party. But honestly, if the Democratic party is dead after this, so be it. The Republican party will be dead after Trump. Maybe they both need to die and we can create something entirely new in the near future.

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Strauss's avatar

When the Trump campaign went after Hillary Clinton the accused her, tried her and convicted her in the echo chamber of Trump friendly media such as Fox and Friends and the similar media outlets, using the maxim that if something is said loud enough and repeated often enough to enough people, people will start to believe it. Most voters unfortunately, do not objectively or deeply research a candidate’s qualifications or background, and depend mire and more on mass and social media to form their opinions.

Dutchess_III's avatar

”...mire and more…” I like that. :D

stanleybmanly's avatar

As I said before, Hillary was so obviously headed for the top that conservatives understood that she must be the priority target 35 years ago. She has thus been more relentlessly and systematically bad mouthed and demonized than cigarettes or pedophilia.

KNOWITALL's avatar

@stanleybmanly I think she did it herself by beating up her husband’s accusers, at least on the broader stage. Little did we realize that was just the beginning. I watched an interview with her and the one thing that humanized her (to me) was questioning whether to run in 2016 or focus on being a grandmother. That’s the first time I’d seen her as anything other than a narcissistic ball buster for decades.

stanleybmanly's avatar

And where do you suppose all of that narcissistic ball busting imagery originated? Just read the smokewulf’s litany of Clinton murders and other silliness from the right wing toolbox. Listen to the reasoning behind why she is despised. “I’m disgusted that she stuck with Bill”— She should be reviled because she chose to “stand by her man.” What sort of ball busting narcissist is that? Then there’s the ridiculous child pornography ring accusation, and on and on without letup for a full 35 years.

KNOWITALL's avatar

@stanleybmanly Nah, it came from watching her for decades, at least for me. I actually just watched her Netflix (or was it Hulu?) special and it was pretty good. I’d love for her to change my mind, I’d also love a female president.

Caravanfan's avatar

“I’d also love a female president.”
Word.

seawulf575's avatar

@stanleybmanly And isn’t coincidental that for that entire time, the lefties never wanted to look at any of the claims? You defended her to the death against investigations. And yet, a bogus claim by an anonymous person and you are ready to impeach Trump. What was it you always said about Trump? When there is so much claimed against him, it has to be true? I believe that is called hypocrisy.

stanleybmanly's avatar

When did I say that? And regardless of whether I said it or not, she has weathered those 35 years of charges and investigations from you and your ilk without a single indictment or formal criminal charge. Never mind that “lefties” wouldn’t look. YOU folks did PLENTY of “looking” to the point of exhaustion. That “bogus” claim earned the fool his impeachment, and a mere 2 Senate seats in the Fall separate him from the demise he deserves, if he can last until the election.

Sagacious's avatar

@stanleybmanly I rarely agree with you. That hasn’t changed.

stanleybmanly's avatar

You defy your monicker. This country is doomed to increasing reliance and intrusion of the state in our daily lives. In view of the steady decline in the parameters defining our standard of living, the choices are either a socialist ramp up funded through exploding debt or brutal dictatorship overseeing enforced poverty. Those are the only solutions to the current maxim that the rich MUST get richer.

JLeslie's avatar

Up until now I’ve been willing to listen to arguments for Bernie, and thought he my still have a slim chance. I heard earlier today the youth vote didn’t come out in the states that just voted in the numbers they expected.

Forget all of that though. He just made a fatal mistake as far as I’m concerned. I received a mailer today from the Bernie campaign. Good quality paper about 11×8 with his face on it in black and white and REVOLUTION in red block caps across his face is he and his marketing people idiots?! At first glance I could not believe my eyes. I almost tossed it right in the trash, because I was so disgusted at the stupidity, but I kept it. When I got home I focused on it more and it says at the top “we don’t need”. So the whole thing is “we don’t need a revolution we need results”.

I’m telling you now, it doesn’t matter. Using the word revolution on anything, especially in Florida is ridiculous!

Maybe 17 year olds know about the revolutions in Latin America, but his marketing people don’t, and they obviously didn’t consult with anyone from South Florida.

It reminds me of when Bloomingdale’s put a new logo on their private label men’s sportswear. It was a target; you know a few round circle inside of one another. We called the home office immediately and said, “what are you doing? Target is an inexpensive superstore, why would you use that as a Bloomingdales brand logo.” The buyer asked, “What’s Target?” See, there were no Targets in New York at the time. If they had never left the city, and hadn’t read up on retailers, they had no idea what a Target was. I had never seen one myself until I left for college.

All sorts of marketing mistakes throughout history. In my opinion Bernie just did one for the books.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Are they from Bernie or the NRA or some other counter Bernie organization. NRA and others know how to manipulate the voters.

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JLeslie's avatar

CORRECTION: seems this flyer opens up and it’s put out by Biden. Not nice I have to say.

Caravanfan's avatar

Well, that’s a dirty trick that the Biden campaign did (or one of the surrogates). It had the desired effect it seems.

JLeslie's avatar

@Caravanfan Yup! I bought right into it.

stanleybmanly's avatar

It’s pointless fighting over which system is best. What the present situation clearly demonstrates and everyone of us old folks and young certainly recognize is that every one of our present day complaints from unaffordability of housing through crippling health insurance or a now required college education—armies of homeless people—all of it is another way of telling us that we are poorer. What appear to be an ever expanding list of unaffordable necessities that we all are took for granted are whether we like it or not the product of deliberate and systemic design, and the gist of it all is that there is absolutely no chance of checking these trends with the current political setup. It absolutely fascinates me in this argument between the left and right that the impoverishment of the middle class seems such a boon for conservatism. The poorer the we get—the redder we become. The more backward and destitute the location—the redder it is consistently guaranteed to be. I look at it all from my comfortable blue existence and tell you all that I fear greatly for my country.

JLeslie's avatar

@stanleybmanly I want to make sure I understand what you are saying. You say the poorer we become the redder we become. That is the opposite of what I would guess would happen. Can you explain that more. Why you think that is the case?

seawulf575's avatar

@JLeslie All those homeless people crapping on the SF streets are far better off than any Republican. You know that.

ARE_you_kidding_me's avatar

@stanleybmanly How poor we are is not a good predictor of political affiliation. Location and proximity to groups who favor one or the other is. Sort of like religion.

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