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mazingerz88's avatar

Would you care to speculate on when exactly Covid 19 most likely first arrived in the US and started spreading?

Asked by mazingerz88 (26685points) March 21st, 2020

As if you’re Sherlock Homes trying to solve a puzzle.

( Speculating on when it arrived in other countries too like Italy and Iran is welcome. )

Seems to me Covid 19 already got out of China and started spreading several weeks even before that Chinese doctor discovered it and then alerted the Chinese authorities.

Chinese authorities reprimanded the doctor, then sat on it until left with no choice but to announce to the world of its existence.

In case you have been studying the timeline of the spread of Covid 19 with emphasis on geographics, can you please post links you have on it?

And as stated, pure personal speculations are welcome.

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10 Answers

rebbel's avatar

As a purely personal speculation I would say February 20th, 5:15 pm

filmfann's avatar

I have had several people tell me they believe they had the virus weeks before I boarded the cruise ship that resulted in my being quarantined.
I would guess it first arrived in the U.S. around Christmas.

Call_Me_Jay's avatar

Don’t speculate. It’s less than worthless, it’s harmful. You are making things worse.

It isn’t a mystery or conspiracy of how diseases spread. The science goes back to the 19th century and has become ever more sophisticated.

The first case reported in the US was a man in Washington state who had returned from Wuhan, the center of the epidemic. And Washington state became the first outbreak. Other early cases can be traced to Italy. Once it’s in a community, the spread is predictable.

There is no secret outbreak. Hospital admissions and deaths would show (and do show) where coronavirus is.

Don’t be a source of misinformation.

Seattle Times – Jan 21, 2020 – Snohomish County man has the United States’ first known case of the new coronavirus

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Here from the New England Journal of Medicine First case from a traveler returning from Wuhan.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

@mazingerz88 You are welcome It comes from many many nights in the hospital medical library while getting my degree in Psychology !

Dutchess_III's avatar

I agree with the Christmas time frame. Almost everyone I know came down with a mystery illness, that included a sore throat, a headache, and body aches, in January and February. I came down with it at the beginning of this month. The symptoms fit the virus to a T.

Dutchess_III's avatar

Many of my friends got the virus before they were testing for it. The New England Journal of Medicine is reporting only on the first person who tested for it. Thousands of people could be quietly recovering at home.

Dutchess_III's avatar

@Call_Me_Jay I don’t think he’s cause a problem with the questions, not here anyway. With a couple of exceptions we’re a pretty level headed group, not prone to panic or accepting gossip as a fact.

mazingerz88's avatar

Just saw on the news that Taiwan ( pop. 27 mil ) which is close to China seemed to have started doing something since December. They have 100 cases so far apparently.

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