General Question

crazyguy's avatar

How high a market value do you foresee for Tesla by 2025?

Asked by crazyguy (3207points) September 28th, 2020

Based on trading today, Tesla’s market cap is approaching $400 billion. Here is a link to an article whose thesis is that Tesla will be worth trillions in 2030:

My personal target was about a trillion by 2030. However, now I am starting to think my target may be hit much sooner.

What do you think?

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9 Answers

rebbel's avatar

Two trillion and 435 dollars, by 2025 (december).

gorillapaws's avatar

It will be highly dependent on Tesla’s ability to implement autonomy. If so, we could see a multi-trillion dollar market-cap.

zenvelo's avatar

There are some things happening on the battery front, including a cobalt free lithium ion battery that will make batteries cheaper and more productive. Given TSLA’s focus on battery development and extending the range on its cars, it could easily shutter GM or Ford in the next five years.

Given that AAPL’s market cap is 1.92 Trillion today, and given an incoming administration focused on the Green New Deal and a supportive Congress, TSLA could easily surpass 2 Trillion in market cap, and a share price return to $2,200.

crazyguy's avatar

@gorillapaws I currently drive a car with FSD. I must say my experience has been mixed. Autopilot does routine stuff really well – keeping in the middled of a lane, and following the front car at a specified distance, detecting and stopping at stop signs and traffic signals. However, it gets confused in certain situations and gives up control rather suddenly; other times it make unsafe decisions. For instance on the way to my golf course there is a situation where the road splits into two lanes. Autopilot always opts for the left lane, which is ok. Then we reach a traffic light and the road is curving slightly to the right. From the traffic light, autopilot invariably wants to move over into the right lane. Now that I know it, I make sure the right lane is clear, or take over control. The first time it happened, I was scared shitless!

crazyguy's avatar

@zenvelo I agree with you – it is going to be all about the batteries. I was glued to Youtube throughout Battery day, and even though the market was not too excited, I thought the revelations were stunning. The tables cell, the new manufacturing technique, silicon anodes, using cells as structural elements, new body castings – I think any one of those could be a game changer. Together they will be earth shattering.

I am pretty certain that Tesla will soon be selling not only emission credits and supercharging services, but also batteries to the competition. The sky is the limit.

crazyguy's avatar

@rebbel I’ll gladly settle for just the two trillion.

gorillapaws's avatar

@crazyguy I only have the enhanced autopilot. It’s absolutely rock solid, except when it isn’t. I use it for the vast majority of the miles I’ve driven and it’s been a phenomenal experience 99% of the time. It even saved me from a fender-bender once. The problem is that last 1% is so complicated to figure out. There are millions of weird scenarios that would be incredibly difficult for any autonomous car to figure out like police directing traffic, a car in front of you spinning it’s wheels on a snowy hill, a drunk driver going the wrong way, flooded street, someone asking for directions, or for help if there was an accident, etc…

crazyguy's avatar

@gorillapaws I agree 100%. I think autopilot needs to be programmed to give up safely in some circumstances that it cannot understand. Giving up safely requires it to make a stop somewhere safe on the shoulder (if there is one). If there isn’t one, it should perhaps turn on the emergency flasher, slow down, and keep moving safely.

kritiper's avatar

It will depend greatly on the success of their product development department, notably, battery development.

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