General Question

crazyguy's avatar

How many vaccine doses are necessary before young seniors get their turn?

Asked by crazyguy (2002points) 2 weeks ago

Here are the CDC groups:

1a: Frontline healthcare workers and long term care facility residents. Best I can determine this group has just over 21 million individuals, some of whom have declined the chance to obtain their shots.
1b: Frontline essential workers and individuals 75 years of age and older. Estimated numbers of these groups are:
Frontline essential workers: 30 million (per https://www.aarp.org/work/working-at-50-plus/info-2020/covid-vaccine-essential-workers.html}
Individuals over 75 years old: 13 million

1c: Other essential workers, persons 65–74 years of age, and individuals 16–64 years of age with underlying medical conditions

Other essential workers: 57 million
Individuals 65–74 years old: 18 million

I personally think essential workers should get priority over retired folks like me. Therefore, I could be well behind; I count 130 million people ahead of the 65–74 group.

The complicating factor is that some eligible people decline the vaccine for whatever reason. No hard data is available on the percentage of declines. See https://wlos.com/news/local/how-many-western-north-carolina-hospital-workers-are-declining-covid-19-vaccine

Anecdotally, I know that in my good buddy’s hospital about ⅓rd declined. Of the ⅔rds that did get the first dose, there were many who had initially stated they would not take the vaccine. I personally think that if you say no during the initial survey to determine how many doses to request, you should go to the back of the line.

Sorry for the long background. What do you think?

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29 Answers

elbanditoroso's avatar

My daughter had hers on Wednesday – group 1A – healthcare worker (cardiology) working in an office that has a lot of seniors as patients. Part of a large hospital group.

I’m in group 1C. I figure that I’ll get a call from my doctor at the end of January.

JLeslie's avatar

In Florida 65 and up are getting vaccinated now.

I think Texas is going to be doing 65 and up soon if they haven’t started already.

If I read it right there are 20 million 75 and up and 20 million healthcare workers in the US. I’m rounding. I’m not sure if that number for healthcare includes people sitting at a desk who wouldn’t be in the first group. I’m not sure how that figures into frontline essential workers.

In Florida we already have long long lines of over 65 lining up to be vaccinated. It’s not very organized, I’m not sure how they could organize it.

JLeslie's avatar

I hope my husband and I are 1C. I think I’ll probably have to wait until February maybe March if I can get classified in with any age having underlying conditions.

I think any group that is the third group, no matter how your state is organizing the 1a and 1b should assume February or later.

Remember the first group has to return for second vaccinations.

zenvelo's avatar

Your question is an oxymoron: “young seniors”.

Back in early December, there was a NY Times quiz that a asked where you lived, age, health factors, etc., to give one an idea of where you stood in line. According to that, I was 93,000th in line in my county. That seemed fair.

My girlfriend, who works at an eldercare facility, will be getting her first dose next Wednesday.

janbb's avatar

I think it is impossible to know when. There are far too many variables; how much vaccine your state has, how fairly it is administered (i.e. who jumps the line), how many in previous categories take it or refuse it, etc.

I’m in 1C also and wishing it will be by the end of January, and hoping it will be by March/April. Perhaps it will be by June.

canidmajor's avatar

It’s determined by state. Contact your local representatives or your mayor’s office/city council for more accurate details.
And really, “young seniors”? Are you hip and funky, too?

elbanditoroso's avatar

For whatever it’s worth, my daughter (group 1A) was given the Moderna.

janbb's avatar

@canidmajor @zenvelo Actually, “young seniors” makes sense in the context of the question since many states are deciding categories for the vaccine based on those over 75 and those “65 to 75.”

Besides, I’m happy to be considered young by any standard! :-)

(My DIL got her first dose of the Pfizer on December 11th. California, cardiac recovery room nurse at a major research and teaching hospital.)

canidmajor's avatar

@janbb Good point. Chastened am I. ;-)

zenvelo's avatar

@janbb @canidmajor I get the point, but I remain unchastened. :-)

Call_Me_Jay's avatar

Here is the NY Times tool to estimate your place in line. I think it’s generic and does not account for how states’ rules vary. Florida and Texas, for example, are vaccinating seniors whether they live in group housing or not. The CDC guidelines prioritize nursing homes.

It asks for your county of residence to give you a population I’m glad to see I’m in the first 10% for my county. I would like the vaccine as soon as possible.

Find Your Place in the Vaccine Line

janbb's avatar

@zenvelo I’ll have to get out the fluffy cushions then, Sir!

jca2's avatar

Here’s the population break down. I think, even though the very old went quickly, there are way more millions in the middle categories. I don’t think we should assume that because the very old went quickly, the rest of the age groups are going to go as quickly.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/#:~:text=The%20estimated%20population%20of%20the%20U.S.%20was%20approximately,this%20age%20category%20and%20around%2011.5%20million%20females.

crazyguy's avatar

@JLeslie I am not sure what is happening in Florida to cause long lines. What I expect here in California is that my healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, will contact me when it is my turn and then I’ll make an appointment.

I gave the right numbers for the different groups ahead of mine. I rounded to the nearest million.

crazyguy's avatar

@zenvelo LOL, good catch. I could see no more concise way of getting my meaning across.

crazyguy's avatar

@janbb I would hope that people who do not want the vaccine when they are first asked will immediately go to the back of the line. I know my buddy’s hospital had enough doses to accommodate even those who said no the first time. Which means they probably kept somebody else from getting the vaccine.

I was hoping for January, but now think it will more likely be Feb-March.

crazyguy's avatar

@canidmajor LOL You bet. At my tender age I have to be “hip and funky”!

crazyguy's avatar

@janbb Thanks for getting my meaning. And more importantly for presenting it so well.

crazyguy's avatar

@Call_Me_Jay The NY Times will not let me access the tool. I absolutely will not register on their website.

JLeslie's avatar

@crazyguy Our doctors aren’t giving us the vaccine at this point, the county is. Just two locations in my county. Hopefully other states will handle it better.

I wasn’t questioning your numbers.

smudges's avatar

@Call_Me_Jay That NY Times tool is useless unless you live IN NY because it asks for your county, not your state and county.

janbb's avatar

@smudges Not true. Once you type in your county, it fills in the state. I used it for my county which is not NY.

canidmajor's avatar

@smudges it worked for me, too, also not in NY.

Call_Me_Jay's avatar

A lot of sites with paywalls are making covid info free. I don’t know about the NY Times, because I have a subscription.

JLeslie's avatar

I think they stopped the free thing a few months ago. I get pay walls from multiple periodicals and news sources now. Some of them allow 1–3 reads a month.

smudges's avatar

Ok, got it, thank you! Had to type it in. Says I’m behind 53.8K people. Not bad.

JLeslie's avatar

In my state I’m behind 17.4 million people if they don’t classify me as a high risk or behind 1.5 million if they do. Some difference.

smudges's avatar

This Vaccine Allocation Planner is interesting:

https://covid19vaccineallocation.org/

jca2's avatar

Once you type in the name of your County, it comes up with that county name in the states that it’s in. For me, the drop down gave me six states with ______ County in it. Then it asks for your age, and is your occupation any of the following (essential worker, health care worker, etc.), and “do you have any Covid related risks?”

Then it gave me this:

“Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States.

When it comes to New York, we think you’re behind 16.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state.

And in ______ County, you’re behind 73,000 others.

These are just estimates and the line may ultimately be shorter. The order isn’t yet finalized and children could be skipped entirely if the vaccine isn’t approved for people under 18.
If the line in New York was represented by about 100 people, this is where you’d be standing:”

(then it gives you a graphic with your place in a line of people, showing where you stand (literally).

The NY Times did give Covid related articles out for free but I also have a subscription password and so I don’t know if that’s included.

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