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filmfann's avatar

How many Americans will die from Covid?

Asked by filmfann (50618points) January 18th, 2021

We are about to hit 400,000 dead, with 4,000 dying each day.
We also are in the early days of vaccine distribution.
There are 2 mutant strains that seem especially threatening.
We are also about to have a change in Government, and how they are handling all this.
Plus, we have a lot of people who refuse to wear masks or get vaccinated. On top of that, we have people who are exhausted and worn down from the pandemic.

With all this, what is an expected endpoint?

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8 Answers

SQUEEKY2's avatar

USA 24,626,441 408,623 14,551,686 9,666,132 28,553 74,160 1,231 287,775,215 866,606 332,071,530

THeses are the number from worldometre today the 408,623 is the people in the usa that have died from the virus.

JLeslie's avatar

Everything following is my opinion not something I read or some sort of fact based finding.

Americans will continue to die from covid for many years. Once the number gets down to about 40,000 a year it will stop being in the news.

My state started recording numbers March 1, so if we want to look at how many will die in a 12 month cycle, I think it will be close to 500,000. The following 12 months (2021–2022) I think it will be half that number. The following 12 months (2022–2023) less than 100,000 (but flu will go back up again).

If they shift the counting to the calendar year Jan-Dec, then I need to change my numbers. If they keep reporting it as a cumulative number, then by March 2023 I’m estimating just over 800,000 American deaths.

All guessing like I said above.

elbanditoroso's avatar

How many people die from the (regular) seasonal flu every year? In 2018–2019, it was about 35,000 people. In 2017–2018, around 60,000.

So ballpark, 50,000 from seasonal flu. Figure that there would be some Coronavirus overlap. My guess is, that based on current information, we’ll have in the neighborhood of 100,000 deaths from Covid and regular flu, once people get vaccines and figure out that Covid is real.

Malthus would be proud.

janbb's avatar

I think it is projected to be about half a million by the Spring and will, it is hoped, start to go down after that.

Zaku's avatar

@SQUEEKY2 What are the other numbers you listed?

SQUEEKY2's avatar

You guys the states have passed 410,000 today ,and that is the death numbers pretty scary.

Zaku's avatar

Yes. Compare US death total in World War Two: 419,400

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