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JLeslie's avatar

What percentage of the population do you think will take the covid vaccine by September 1?

Asked by JLeslie (65197points) March 24th, 2021

I’m assuming by then most countries our jellies live in will have given opportunity for all of the adults in their countries to be vaccinated.

What percentage of the adult population in your state/province will put their arm out? In your country?

Is your state recording vaccinations by county or by where the individual lives? I ask because a lot of people where I live traveled out of county for their shot, so we don’t really know exactly how vaccinated my city is.

Do you think the health departments, governors, presidents, PM’s, and the news will still be talking about covid19 if the deaths get way down, even if the cases continue. How low do you think the deaths need to be per month to make caution for covid a thing of the past? If deaths are way down will schools go back to normal? No distancing, no masks?

What are your guesses?

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15 Answers

LuckyGuy's avatar

I’ll make an uneducated guess. 85%.
About half the population here is Republican and half of them have stated they will not get vaccinated. I figure one third of those who said they won’t, will actually get it done secretly. (I personally know someone in that category.) That will leave about 15% holdouts. 1 in 7.

After Sept 1 if an unvaccinated adult ends up hospitalized from Covid their health insurance rates should double.

longgone's avatar

I love those questions because I can go back later and laugh about how wrong I was.

I think it’ll be 82% of the eligible adults in Germany. So, many unvaccinated kids and immunocompromised people running around still. And then some who believe in reptilian overlords. I'll say deaths would have to be under 50/month for the crisis to leave the front page. And yes, I think schools would go back to normal at that point.

RedDeerGuy1's avatar

100%. Also the variants will need to be revaccinated every year for till the end of time.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

We have records by county where shot was given, not individuals home county (also doing out of state).

Some counties have opened up for any person over 18 can get vaccinated (using Johnson & Johnson – one shot).

Less than 14 % of adults have been fully vaccinated, another 7 % have one of two shots.

About 15 % of the counties have had to return a portion of the allocated vaccine or outright refused deliveries of vaccine. Clinics are not getting people to schedule appointments or showing up at “first come first vaccinated”.

It is going to be a long long Summer!

I don’t think we will have half the state vaccinated by September 1st.

hello321's avatar

We’re currently vaccinating people 60+ years-old here in MA, but things are still really rough. Physicians and activists have been voicing their concerns. Currently, 15.5% of the population has been vaccinated. But this doesn’t reflect disparities among economic lines (and issues of ability).

Considering that we have absolutely no idea how things are going to go – with supply, variants, etc – I think it makes no sense to have any guess.

Also, using the US as some kind of measure is odd. This is a global pandemic.

zenvelo's avatar

Since less than half the population gets a flu vaccine every year, I would estimate it will be in the 50— 55% range.

JLeslie's avatar

I’m going to say 60% of adults in the US. I think my state, FL, will be higher than the average, whatever the average winds up being.

In my state I think as soon as deaths go way down everything will go back to the way it was before. I know Florida is reported as wide open in the news, but many schools are still less than 50% in person (by parent choice). The theme parks are at reduced capacity by the theme parks’ choice. Masks are still worn by most employees in stores, and most patrons, but there are some stores that have been in flat defiance this whole time.

I think once deaths are down to 4,000 a month in the country or less for a few months, the culture will quickly switch to “protect yourself if you’re worried,” and we will see a rise in flu again next winter, and other illnesses.

Mask rules for airlines are a big question mark in my mind. Will those persist way beyond other places requiring them? Trains? Buses?

If a variant keeps the cases and deaths up then it all gets screwed up.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Update – -
Two clinics opened at 9 AM EDT for 16 and 17 year olds with a guardian and anyone over 18.

jca2's avatar

Here in my area of NY (where I work and where I live, about 40 miles apart, roughly 50/50 Dem/Rep between the two), I think most people will get it, except for a few holdouts who are writing on FB “My body, my choice” in all caps. They’re writing about how it will change their DNA, which I think is such a ludicrous thought. Most people that I know personally will get it.

I’d guess 70–80% for where I am. The reason I don’t think it’s more is that there are some really anti-vax people and die hard Republicans around who won’t.

As for the rest of the country, I am not sure.

JLeslie's avatar

I guess I’ll add as of Monday just over 5 million people have had at least one shot in the state of Florida. I don’t know where the country is at. Florida has about 18million adults and 5million minors, and a s**t ton of tourists and temporary residents.

jca2's avatar

I wonder what the percentage will be in areas like Idaho, where many live off the grid and join militias and all that fun.

JLeslie's avatar

I think the militia people won’t get vaccinated, but lots of Republicans here are vaccinated. Probably, a certain percentage of militia people don’t identify as Republicans, they are probably Independents and Libertarians, although maybe more are registered Republicans now since they loved Trump.

I think registered Republicans over age 60 will be 70–80% vaccinated as a group. When the news shows stats for Republicans willing to get vaccinated it never divides it up by age (not that I’ve seen) and I don’t think I’ve heard how many Democrats plan to get it, I’m probably just not paying attention. A percentage of Democrats don’t want to get it also.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Certainly, everyone willing to be vaccinated should be accommodated by September. I too am curious as to what proportion of us will reject inoculation in keeping with our intensifying romance with dystopia.

kritiper's avatar

The population of the United States?? I’ll say at least 75%.

kritiper's avatar

@jca2 So far we have had an excellent turnout for vaccines. About 75% of people over 65 have been fully inoculated. I get my second shot Friday morning. People 16 and up will be able to get their first shots next Monday morning.

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