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Jeruba's avatar

Will shifting Republican and Democrat populations tend to dilute dominant groups in various states or reinforce them?

Asked by Jeruba (52227points) 1 week ago

That is, are we likely to see, say, red states getting redder through moves in from other states, or will we see more purple states developing as populations shift to offset the dominance of one group or the other in a given state?

And which would be better?

Will any significant number of people even do this?

If you live in a state that is heavily populated by the guys on the other team, do you feel inclined to leave and go where there’s more of “your” people? Or would you rather stay and strengthen the opposition?

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14 Answers

Forever_Free's avatar

I don’t look at things in Red and Blue. We are all Americans.
Thinking in a Red vs Blue or those guys vs our team only creates further divide.
I prefer to try to see right versus wrong and how we can do the best for the whole. There is no perfect or correct side. We all need to move towards each other.

JLeslie's avatar

I previously thought Southern states would get less red and more purple, but now I’m not so sure. A lot of Californians are moving to Tennessee, Texas, and Florida (Florida is already purple) and I thought that would mean a lot of blue, but it seems a lot of Republicans are making the move, and a jelly recently pointed out Republican discussions talk a lot about it, so I guess it’s like a snowball growing.

A lot of people moving from Chicago area also, and just generally people have been moving from the north to the south over the last 20 years, especially to Atlanta, big cities in Texas, and Raleigh and Asheville, NC. Nashville is a newer magnet in the last five years, but it is exploding with new people moving in.

I’m very interested to see what happens in the next few elections.

My state, Florida, continues you to be 50/50 split for registered voters, but that does not include people registered as unaffiliated, and supposedly those people tend to more often vote Republican. I don’t know if that’s true.

You could easily look up how people are registered in the states you’re curious about. The states with migration into the state should be fairly accurate. The states losing people would be a little overstated, because usually voter registration stays on the books a few years after someone leaves the state.

janbb's avatar

I think the gerrymandering that’s being done to protect certain districts and disempower voters makes such distinctions almost moot.

My state just passed a Marriage Equality bill, a woman’s bodily autonomy bill and a few years ago a Compassion in Dying bill. I don’t plan to move anywhere else for a long time even though my Representative is a die-hard Conservative.

JLeslie's avatar

Absolutely, gerrymandering is a problem. It definitely is in my state.

Some states are gerrymandered to favor Democrats, but not many. One could probably argue Maryland is.

flutherother's avatar

Most internal migration is from the Northeast and the Midwest to warmer climates in Florida and the South. The highest migration rates are people in their 20’s and early 30’s who tend to be Democrats. People move to warmer climates, more affordable areas and better job opportunities and political considerations don’t seem to be so important.

Georgia is an interesting example as it would probably not have swung over to Biden had it not been for the influx of African Americans from other parts of the US in recent decades. North Carolina and Texas have also seen mainly Democratic incomers change voting patterns.

It seems to me that the Democrats are benefitting most from these population shifts and the Republicans are relying for their support on over represented sparsely populated rural counties which don’t see much inward migration. This may be why Republicans haven’t won the popular vote since 2004.

janbb's avatar

Interestingly, a Black NY Times columnist proposed a little while ago that Black people move back to the South to shift it.

kritiper's avatar

Neither. People will stay where they are because they like it there.

JLeslie's avatar

@janbb I have friends in Florida who say they want to move out because of the politics (I think it’s just talk) and I have friends who say they would never move to Florida because of the politics (I think most probably won’t move and that is part of their rationale) and I always say, how will the politics change if the Democrats don’t stay or come to Florida? It makes no sense to me.

Imagine if Black people never move into white neighborhoods?

At least in Florida it is very purple, there are counties that are very blue.

Jeruba's avatar

When I get very concerned about the seriously deepening rifts in our national fabric, I feel like I want to live where I’m densely surrounded by people of the same political persuasion as mine.

The fact that so many now view their fellow citizens as enemies, foes, and adversaries, instead of political opponents saluting one flag (as we did until recently), and are apt to back that up with armed mobs, is more terrifying than a threat of nuclear destruction.

A major threat of war or national disaster used to bring us together in loyalty and mutual aid. Now, would people who are wearing red baseball caps and people who aren’t help each other out or not? I no longer have any confidence that they would. Why would a guy who’s willing to shoot me for how I voted want to help me to my feet if I fall in the street?

Jeruba's avatar

And why would any Americans want to conduct themselves in such a way that other Americans fear them? One nation, divisible.

All this for Donald Trump? He ain’t worth it, man. What have we given up for his sake? What has he cost us?

JLeslie's avatar

@Jeruba Would you consider leaving the country? Does it feel like the US is cracking apart so badly it’s time to flee?

Jeruba's avatar

@JLeslie, I do think about the Canadian half of my family. I could go to Ottawa or the Maritimes and find lots of relatives. And maybe even Alberta or B.C. and find a friend.

And yes, I do believe we’re cracking so badly that we may not heal in this century, or perhaps ever. If there are any history books in 50 years, I hate to think that Trump is going to get a whole chapter in them.

But no, I don’t think seriously of starting over in another country at my age, much as I love Canada. I guess I’d just like to be where the crazies aren’t eyeing my scalp and I could stumble and fall on my front sidewalk without fearing that someone is looting my house before I can get to my feet.

JLeslie's avatar

@Jeruba I’m assuming you would be fairly inconspicuous. You’re white, you aren’t usually inside of a synagogue or mosque, you could help the Democrats from the privacy of your home. A lot of the lunatics like to believe they are good charitable people.

My husband talks about Canada. So cold. You know I like the warm weather.

My dad thinks I should really get prepared to leave. Try to get citizenship in another country or have a plan where to go as a tourist for an extended period.

Jeruba's avatar

I think SQUEEKY2 also said somewhere recently that their crazies are just as bad as our crazies.

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