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SQUEEKY2's avatar

This is an opinion question, do you think Trump will get the Republican nomination for 2024?

Asked by SQUEEKY2 (22466points) 1 month ago

And again in your opinion what do you think will happen if he doesn’t get the nomination?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

46 Answers

Zaku's avatar


A parade of other terrible racist fascist xenophobic corporate shill scumbags will line up to replace him (as he fades into insanity and inept but massively-funded criminal defenses), and some sane conservatives. The sane conservatives won’t get much attention because of the media circus focus, and the other Republican politicians will continue to think they need to pander to the insano-idiot racist fascist xenophobic gun-waving Bible-thumpers.

The Democrats will probably similarly also fail to select an actual good candidate, because they too are owned by hyper-monied interests and don’t want an actual good popular leader, and the establishment loves to have the illusion of a dramatic close R vs D contest.

Entropy's avatar

I’m currently leaning towards ‘no’. Pre-midterms, I was leaning towards ‘yes’.

Trump clearly still has a strong hold on a fairly sizeable chunk of the GOP, but I think there’s alot of folks who overstate how much Republicans as a whole ever liked Trump. In 2016, he entered a primary field that was EXTREMELY fractured with no serious frontrunners. So when the media started giving Trump billions worth of free advertising by talking about him to the exclusion of other candidates, Trump easily overwhelmed the competition.

But I don’t think a majority of Republicans ever really wanted Trump. It’s just the large minority was unified, while the majority was very fractured until it was too late. By the time they started to come together, Trump had too much momentum.

Then you get to the general election. The country as a whole, and the GOP in particular didn’t like Hillary Clinton. IMHO this was CRITICAL to Trump being elected. Hillary’s negative approvals were almost as bad as Trump himself. It was a dead heat between them. So if you’re a moderate Republican who is disgusted by Trump….but hates Hillary more, you’re going to hold your nose and vote for Trump. And that’s what swing voters in key states did as well. They voted AGAINST Hillary more so than FOR Trump. This is visibile because you can see how low Trump’s positive ratings were even before he actually started governing.

After 2020, and PARTICULARLY in the wake of Jan 6, I was hoping to see alot of these Republicans publicly moving away from Trump or openly criticizing the Steal Myth. And to be fair, some did. But many didn’t. Some explicitly endorsed it despite clear and easily accessible proof that it was nonsense, but alot just stayed silent…or were very quiet in their disapproval rather than being outspoken and showing integrity during a time when their own party member was off the rails.

The fact that Trumpism still seemed to have such a strong hold on the GOP from 2020 to 2022 made me think that he still had enough of a grip on the party AND that the rest was still fractured enough that he might win the nomination….and then get obliterated in the general election.

But the midterms I think really changed things. Alot of the people who were kind of nervously going along with Trump because of political cowardice now see that he’s a Loser in addition to being repugnant (and not very conservative by the way except on ONE issue: Immigration). He was a Loser before 2022, but I think the majority of the party now UNDERSTANDS that he’s a Loser. And that’s critical.

I think the key for the GOP is going to be coalescing behind a single figure as early in the primary as they can. DeSantis seems like the obvious choice. I think enough former Trump voters will be looking for alternatives that it will be hard for Trump to win.

The problem is that Trump’s strategy will be the same. Say outrageous shit and induce the media to give you free advertising in their new coverage by spending all day every day talking Trump. That strategy worked once. DeSantis (or whomever) needs to get quick momentum to sideline non-Trump competitors so as not to split the vote again.

I’m presently leaning towards Trump losing…but information is fluid, so as a result, so too should our opinions be.

gondwanalon's avatar

I don’t think that Trump will win the Republican nomination and in that case will perhaps run as an Independent candidate.
If he does get the nomination then he will lose the Presidential election.
In either case Democrats will win. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats.

Democrats have my early congratulations for winning the 2024 Presidential election.

zenvelo's avatar


Trump is a broken record, he hasn’t said anything new since 2016.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Nope, I also think he will split the GOP and run independent.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

@Tropical_Willie We can only hope that happens .
It would be fantastic if it did.

janbb's avatar

My guess is that DeSantis will be the nominee and very likely win. We will then live in a religious autocracy.

NoMore's avatar

No. I really believe most Repubs know now that running Trump again is a losing ticket. He’s the Repub male equivalent of Hillary. But stranger things have happened. If not I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see another rebellion by his cult members. Time will tell.

smudges's avatar


@janbb Shit my heart skipped a beat when I read what you wrote. Say it ain’t so Joe! If that happens I might have to move to Canada.

Dutchess_III's avatar


The Republicans have lost touch with the people.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

My only problem is do the Republicans risk losing Trump’s 30% maga base if he runs off and starts a third party?

seawulf575's avatar

I guess it will depend on who runs against him. LIke him or not, he is a force to be reckoned with. He did the job before and did it quite well. There are drawbacks to Trump as a candidate but it will take someone very savvy to beat him. And some of the decisions will be who the Dems put up against him.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

And who would that be @seawulf575 you hate all democrats.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

@SQUEEKY2 I think it is someone hates anyone that is not a Fright winger; it is not just Democrats ! ! !

KNOWITALL's avatar

They’ll go with a Trump Lite version, so no.

zenvelo's avatar

@seawulf575 ”....and did it quite well.”

I don’t know where you were the last 6 years, but you weren’t paying attention.

jca2's avatar

Trump lovers that I know say that Trump will get the Republican endorsement and they say that many people love him and will vote for him. However, a lot of Republicans I hear on the news say that Trump is a has-been and someone else will get the Republican nod, especially after the mid terms when he was stumping for politicians who then lost, like the one from PA.

My personal opinion is that Trump’s ego is so huge, it would be hard to stop him. He is still saying he won last time and the election was stolen (which, if he’s correct and he won, then technically he has done his two terms, right?).

kritiper's avatar

No. I believe he will have to run as an Independent.

smudges's avatar

@zenvelo, @seawulf575 is in his dotage.

Dotage: noun
1. a decline of mental faculties, especially as associated with old age; senility.
2. excessive fondness; foolish affection.

Dutchess_III's avatar

They know what it means @smudges.

smudges's avatar

^^ I know! I just wanted to make sure that @seawulf575 knows. sheesh

LuckyGuy's avatar

No. That would trigger the end of the Republican party.

JLeslie's avatar


But, Ana Navarro thinks he will if he actually is on the ballot. I think she’s pretty in touch with the Republican Party so that’s worrisome. At least in touch with Miami Republicans. She says if it’s head to head with DeSantis, Trump will win. I think DeSantis would win, so I was shocked to hear her say that, but she has said it more than once. The only reason I mention it is because if DeSantis ran I would think he gets the nomination for sure against any other candidate, but maybe Trump is a question mark. I don’t know if he’ll run now, or wait until 2028.

jca2's avatar

I think a problem for any politician is they hear a lot from people who like them, so it’s “rah rah rah, you’re so great, we love you” and it gives them a false sense of security and an impression of being adored by the populace. Also, many who work for them will stroke their egos as well, so it’s really deceptive for them. Trump gets that from his staff, because he needs it. DeSantis gets it from his staff, because they want him to be around a long time so they have jobs.

JLeslie's avatar

@jca2 Thats so true.

I’m going by my Republican friends up and down the country east of the Mississippi River. They are on Facebook still defending Trump and they think I’m so lucky to live in Florida with a “great governor” (their words). Many of them live in Red states that also were lose during covid and cracked down on abortion, so it wasn’t like they were bemoaning a Democratic governor in their state, some do that though.

Interestingly, a few female Republican friends voted for a Democrat the last election, because their state completely outlawed abortion, but most still are rah rah for the Republicans.

JLeslie's avatar

Typo’s: that’s not thats and loose not lose.

Jaxk's avatar

There’s little doubt in my mind that Trump will run but it will depend on who runs against him. DeSantis is a good bet but I’m not sure he could beat Trump. Somebody like Pompeo Might be able to pull it off. Biden has continued to say he’ll run but if he does the Democrats are in trouble and it will affect the possible choices for GOP nominee. Trump has lost some of his energy, at least it looks that way to me. What we don’t need is two senile old men vying for the presidency. If it is a contest between Biden and Trump, heaven help us.

I don’t think Trump will go the third party route if he loses the primary for a lot of reasons but I do expect him to stay involved. Not sure how but he’ll figure out a way.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

Thanks for your opinion @Jaxk .
I heard on one of your news channels that Trump was ranting if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination he will help the Democrats win.
I also heard him talking about a third party , but you can’t trust any American news sources can you they are all bias and corrupt.

seawulf575's avatar

@Zaku Despite the best efforts of the Dems and the media, he accomplished quite a bit as POTUS. Unemployment was down, lower with blacks and latinos than it had been in a long, long time, if ever. Jobs were climbing. He even dealt with Covid, though to be honest I don’t count that as one of his wins. Too many Dem ideals being pushed on that one. When Joe Biden had assumed office, inflation was only about 1.4% and throughout all of 2019 it was only about 1.2% on average. And that was with the Covid garbage. Illegal immigration was at a lower point than it had been in a long time and there were plenty of actions in place to keep it low. The USA was basically energy independent.

Compare that with Joe Biden in just 2 years. Inflation like we haven’t seen in a long, long time. 8% was a number I heard, in just the first year. Prices out the roof for every aspect of living while take home pay lagged. He undid everything at the border and replaced it with a policy of letting in as many people as possible including as much Fentanyl as the mules can carry. We are getting record number of illegals every month. And there is no plan for dealing with it. He has spent more than any president in the history of the world and our national debt is at a tipping point.

Comparing the two, Trump looks really good.

seawulf575's avatar

Sorry, @Zaku that was for @zenvelo. But @zenvelo one other thing to consider is: imagine how good things could have been if the Dems hadn’t been butt-hurt for 4 years and spent all their time and energy trying to “get Trump” instead of actually working with him for the good of the nation.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

@smudges You’re 100% right he is in his (dotage).

NoMore's avatar

So is Dumpf : )

seawulf575's avatar

@smudges and @SQUEEKY2 yes, I’m in my dotage. But you guys can’t actually debate me with facts so what does that say about you? That you can’t even win a debate with someone in their dotage?

SQUEEKY2's avatar

Uh the only one that says we can’t win a debate against you, is uh well you!

smudges's avatar

@seawulf575 He has spent more than any president in the history of the world and our national debt is at a tipping point.

That’s not true, period. I did research it, but am not going to ‘debate’ it with you. You throw out so much ‘information’ in one post that it would take a person hours, if not days to fact- check all of it. You must have much more time on your hands than I do to waste it on such a mission, because you would simply come back, deny everything the person said, and throw more ‘information’ at them.

I asked Bing, “what is it called when you overwhelm someone with information?”

This is what I got: “seawulf575”.

Seriously though, this is what I got: “If someone provides too many details on something, basically making it more difficult to extract the actual information asked for, what is a good expression to describe this? In my case the additional “information” is not only too much but even misleading.”

That’s what you do and why people get so frustrated with you that they end up saying fuckit. It’s why no one truly debates with you. In the middle of one topic you introduce 3 or 4 or however many more topics and throw even more ‘facts’ at them. Maybe you don’t do this on purpose, maybe you do. But it’s why when I do interact with you, I simply state what I know to be true and let it go at that.

Biden has not spent more than any president in the history of the world! Period. (I mean, that’s a stupid thing to say anyway…the “history of the world”! sheesh At least try to be logical and say the history of the United States!)From what I read, Obama, Bush, Lincoln and several earlier presidents spent more than anyone. Trump is right up there, but isn’t the worst…neither is Biden.

seawulf575's avatar

@smudges Nice try, except I often give citations for you to do your own research, so you can see I’m not making stuff up. Forgive me if I give facts instead of just spouting opinions and calling them facts.

And while I’m sure that is what frustrates people, you need to understand WHY it frustrates them. When we are discussing a topic and I make a statement, the initial reaction is to make disparaging remarks about me. So let me ask, if someone offers an opinion to a question asked and someone else (or several someones) makes disparaging remarks about that person, do you consider it a good debate tactic? Is it even polite or even civilized? They aren’t addressing the comment or even trying to debate it. They are making personal attacks. And when someone DOES try to respond to it, I take it as a conversation so I proceed to show why I think what I say. But apparently that isn’t what you want either. You really just want an echo chamber where only one opinion is given and anything else is “overwhelming” you which leads to your frustration.

Look at this thread as a perfect example. I made the statement that basically there are many variables that go into it. I said he did the job before and did it well. That got me the comment that I was in my dotage because I don’t share the narrow view of others on this page. One jelly did make the snide comment that I was obviously oblivious about the last 6 years. that is about as close to an actual disagreement with my statement as it get and it was not given in a respectful manner. So I responded to it, giving many reasons why I think that. And now because I gave my reasons I am trying to “give too much information on a topic making it difficult to extract the actual information asked for”. Except that “too much information” was the “actual information asked for”. Except no one really asked, they just sniped.

So where we are is that any opinion other than “the official narrative” means your are an idiot and in your dotage. And if you defend your opinion with facts, you are not met with countering facts, you are told you are very frustrating. Did I about cover it?

SQUEEKY2's avatar

Ya know I am sorry @seawulf575 it is an opinion question, and you shouldn’t have been called down for your opinion.
But @smudges has a point about you changing topics or throwing pages upon pages of endless text that are so boring to read you either get blurry vision or plain just want to shoot yourself.
One example ;was Jan 6 about Proud boys and oath keepers showing up with tactical gear and weapons,and your response was well Antifa did it to during their protests so that makes it ok ,type thing.

smudges's avatar

As @SQUEEKY2 wrote, this was an opinion question. My opinion is that you state things as facts when they aren’t. I found 4–5 sites talking about who spent the most money as president, and they all said similar things, but there wasn’t one single answer…as you said, it depended on the variables. BUT, not one of them said Biden was the biggest spender. So you made that fact up in your head because you wanted it to be true, and that’s because you can’t stand anything that even hints of smelling like something other than a republican.

I can’t even respond the way I would like to to your latest post because it would take me hours! Believe it or not, there have been times when I’ve agreed with some of the things you’ve said and I’ve given you GAs. I would like to discuss some of the things you’ve written, in your latest post and in the past, but honestly, I just don’t have the time or patience to write for at least an hour.

I’m a perfectionist when it comes to writing and detailing my thoughts just right so as to say what I mean. I’m also psychologically inclined, which means I tend to look at the bigger picture, which is why I may analyze the person rather than getting lost in the verbage.

This post that I’m writing right now has taken me 32 minutes so far. If I spent 32 minutes on every post, from anyone, I wouldn’t get anything else done. I don’t even know why I’m telling you this, except maybe to explain my frustration with your posts which are long and introduce other topics and ask other questions besides the original one the OP writes. You’re always giving examples to try and make your point, like, “Imagine this…” Well, that’s introducing a whole ‘nother concept for a person to try to respond to. I get frustrated with myself for my writing style and the fact that it takes me so long to write what I want to say but I don’t know how to change it.

I’ll stop now. I’m tired and you probably already have 34 responses in your head. I don’t dislike you because I really don’t know you. But I don’t agree with, or yeah, even like many of your opinions. That’s ok, I don’t have to. Peace.

Dutchess_III's avatar

@smudges….GA tho I have to tell you we spent months, if not a year, begging him to provide citations for his claims.
He finally did but more often than not his links would disprove what he claimed.
But he’s getting better and better.

KNOWITALL's avatar

He’s correct in saying that many of the thing’s he did, or stood for resonate with Republicans.

He freaking loaded the Supreme Court and got Roe reversed, do you think that doesn’t gain him undying loyalty to some people?! It would be delusional to think he has no chance if he runs.

I think a lot of @seawulf575. At some point, for those of us here a long time, you’d think sources and data weren’t necessary. But alas, even for me, that’s not the case here.

seawulf575's avatar

@SQUEEKY2 It’s interesting that you see bringing up Antifa as a deflection but you don’t see bringing up the Proud Boys as one. What does that have to do with anything? The question was about if Trump will be indicted for any of the many crimes he has been accused of. What does the Proud Boys have to do with Trump’s supposed crimes? And, BTW, it was YOU that brought up the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers. It was YOU that tried deflecting.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

we were talking about the Jan 6 riot, and the proud boys, and oath keepers. were very much a part of that.
and the talk was about Trump and his crimes, and YOU said Epps was at fault for the riot, Trump’s speech was all peace and love at least in your view.
Hell you don’t even think he is guilty of the tax fraud in New York.

seawulf575's avatar

@SQUEEKY2 Try again. There was no discussion of J6 at all until you brought it up. Correction, it was mentioned one time in passing before I made any comments on this thread. But no one addressed it at all. YOU are the one that brought it up as a deflection.

SQUEEKY2's avatar

You know Wulfie I am a big enough man to admit your right about bringing up the riot in this thread ,I got lost on which thread I was on, so sorry about that.

Dig_Dug's avatar

I’m pretty sure you can’t run from prison. But hey, can’t blame him for trying I guess. And for someone that said DeSantis, holy crap! I better get out my Canadian papers now.

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