Suppose that experience has shown that only one-third of all patients having a particular disease will recover if given the standard treatment. A new drug is to be tested on a group of 12 volunteers. It is believed that the new drug will increase the individual recovery rate to one-half.

…..<.< We’re not doing your homework.

Might want to ask some more specific questions about the statistical model you think might work.

But yeah, not doing your homework.

The answer is not 73%.

100% possibilty that the new drug will be discredited due to the small sample size, no control, no randomisation or random allocation and no blinding of either patients or investigators.

Testing numbers should be in the tens or hundreds of thousands. Now you must have (99%) of the time a blind study as a control.

Ah, but the problem is that you can follow this small (12-person) trial up with a larger one that might show that the effect is real, rather than an anomaly.