Oil spill and hurricanes: The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1st. Which of the following scenarios do you think is most likely?

Weather forecasters (such as The Tropical Meteorology Project, as well as others) have predicted a stronger than average hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico. There is a 51% statistical probability for at least one major (category 3, 4, or 5) hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, compared to an average for the last century of 30%. Here are several scenarios I have heard as possibilities:

Scenario 1: Expensive seafood for several years.
A major category hurricane roars through the Gulf in the area of the spill. Since the much of the oil is floating on the surface of the water, it is pulled into the storm as an aerosol and dispersed along the coastal beaches, swamps and bayous, virtually eliminating the national and international supply of Gulf seafood for several years.

Scenario 2. Disperse! Disperse!
The chemical dispersants used to hide the spill are so effective that microscopic droplets of the dispersant/petroleum combination eventually cover all the earth’s oceans, affecting the marine microbiology, and therefore the total food chain.