"Throw the bums out!" "It's the economy, stupid!" Are these the most important guides for predicting election results?

It seems that in the current election scene in the US, people are trying desperately to distance themselves from Washington—power cental. People who have spent decades living and working in DC are making like they are complete outsiders.

Pocketbook issues are supposed to be the most important issues to the American public. Anyone who can make them prosperous gets a free ride. But woe to those who don’t do that. Not even if they have only had two years to work on it.

I think the two points of view are related. A bad economy leads to throw the bums out to see if the next crew can do any better. Never mind that there is only so much Washington can do to push the economy and that turning the economy around is like turning a supertanker around. You turn the wheel at the helm long before the tanker starts turning, and the tanker keeps turning long after you’ve straightened the wheel.

What do you think? Are these the best guides to election forecasting? Are there others that are as important? Or near in importance? How do you think about making political predictions?