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Austinlad's avatar

Do you think Mama Bear has a chance to win the 2012 presidential election?

Asked by Austinlad (16298points) September 18th, 2010

Sarah Palin told Fox News yesterday “she would give it a shot” to run in 2012. Given the growing influence of the GOP and tea party (I can’t bring myself to capitalize it) and increasingly nasty “throw the bums out” mentality, do you think she has a chance to be nominated? To win? And what do you think would happen if she did (I mean, besides motivating me to buy a one-way ticket to Guam)? Source

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17 Answers

ANef_is_Enuf's avatar

Please no. :\

Do I think it is possible? Maybe. Just maybe. I dread the thought of what would follow.

Kayak8's avatar

The tea party is dividing the GOP base. I have to hope that most Americans are too smart to allow Sarah Palin (or any other nut-job) into a role of such importance. Having seen interviews with tea party folks at the Glenn Beck thing in DC, I have grave concerns for the general intelligence of the constituents and, as a result, for the future of our county.

Rufus_T_Firefly's avatar

Please… in the name of science… and all that is holy… let Sarah Palin fall into a chipper-shredder before America gets that stupid.

marinelife's avatar

No, I do not think she can be nominated for a major party ticket.

Perhaps she could run on the Tea party ticket.

No, I do not think she could win the Presidency in this country.

wundayatta's avatar

She is a joke, and I think there are enough people of intelligence in this country to know that. If there aren’t, then our education system has failed so much that we deserve her.

If she did win, don’t forget you need the advice and consent of Congress. They would probably limit some of her more stupid ideas (she only has stupid ideas and more stupid ideas). Unless somehow, Congress also fell into the hands of the Tea Party. Then, I don’t know about Guam, but Canada looks mighty appealing. Or maybe New Zealand.

No. I’m being silly. I would never leave. I will always stay here to fight to make this country better. I would not let her ruin it, even if we had to succeed or something.

ucme's avatar

Well she’d be following a fine tradition of single cell amoeba like intellects. Reagan, Carter, Bush to name but three. So no I don’t think she would stand a cat in hell’s chance, but she sure wouldn’t look out of place in the oval orifice…....make that office.

Linda_Owl's avatar

I do think it is possible, but if she somehow accomplished becoming President, it would be an absolute disaster for the United States. I would have to seriously consider moving to Canada, & at my age this would be a very difficult adjustment to make – but she is so sly, so on-the-make, & so empty headed, that her danger to America cannot be over-stated.

zen_'s avatar

She didn’t actually say she’d give it a shot – she said that if enough people… blah blah blah – meaning; still waiting for the spinsters and aides to decide if she should do it in 12 or 16.

I think it would be like gift-wrapping another term for Obama.

gasman's avatar

About as much as Dan Quayle did. Palin greatest threat to her credibility is herself. Sooner or later she’ll get enough rope to hang herself, politically speaking.

zen_'s avatar

And what Matt Damon said about the vpilf.

jazmina88's avatar

Her speaking skills have improved since the last election. But i certainly hope not. icky fake whackadoo.

ragingloli's avatar

She would abandon office after 2 years anyway.
However, if she runs, Obama’s second term becomes a certainty, unless america becomes totally insane.

dalepetrie's avatar

To put the Tea Party in perspective, yes they’re winning primaries, but whether those wins will turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing for the Republican party remains to be seen. Consider that Joe Miller, who beat Alaska incumbent Lisa Murkowski, won with somewhere between 40 and 50 thousand votes TOTAL. Last week, Christine O’Donnell won with between 30 and 40 thousand. The last Presidential election was 69 million to 59 million votes. What we’re talking about is small states holding elections that only the most committed political faithful even turn out. This election is about enthusiasm…mid terms don’t turn out NEARLY as many voters as a Presidential election…most people who aren’t extremely left or right leaning just don’t care enough to take the time to vote in these things, much less in a primary to decide who runs in these things.

It is therefore no surprise that in the mid terms (as is historically the case), the political elements which lean the farthest away from the party in power will do extremely well…always happens. Only the people who feel great discontent and want to “throw the bums out” are the ones who are really whipped up about these elections.

But the Tea Party nationwide has 20% support, that is 20% of people sympathize or identify with the movement. If you look at the 33% or so of people who identify as Republican, half are going to be to the left of the middle of the party, half are going to be to the right of the middle of the party. Right there the Tea Party has a built in 16% base, it’s really only about 4% of the disaffected, but previously politically apathetic, or disenchanted with whatever party they used to follow who have glommed onto this movement.

So Palin COULD win the Republican primary in 2012, because primaries are decided by the most radical elements of the party, but that assumes there’s still as much dissatisfaction with the state of the economy come 2012. I don’t believe, for a number of reasons it would take me more time than I have to put down, that come 2012, things are going to be this bad. As much as is made about Obama’s current approval rating, where he is right now is not at all out of step with where other Presidents who DID win 2 terms were at a similar point. Things are so bad right now that the economic improvement that is bound to happen in the next two years, regardless of who controls Congress, will build great enthusiasm, and I believe Obama will win in 2012, almost no matter what. I think the best bet the Republicans have in 2012 would be to nominate a very moderate/centrist, but given this movement, the scope of what Obama has done and will do by then, and the propensity for the farthest opposite elements of the party to dominate the primaries, I think it’s very likely someone who is too extreme, too radical, someone just like Palin, to get the nomination.

SuperMouse's avatar

My favorite thing about political threads? @dalepetrie‘s responses.

I do not believe Sarah Palin can win the 2012 presidential election. I am not even convinced she could win the nomination. I believe it is just a matter of time before she says or does something that shows how incredibly inept she truly is and exposes her as a flash-in-the-pan. Ms. Palin is a living example of Andy Warhol’s statement about everyone having 15 minutes of fame. I estimate she is in her ninth minute.

janbb's avatar

@ucme You can say a number of things about Carter as president but calling him a “single cell amoeba like intellect” just isn’t right. He was one of the most intelligent, if ineffectual, presidents in recent year.

jerv's avatar

I think that she personally has had too much bad press to secure the GOP nomination; as hard as it may be to believe, the majority of Republicans are actually fairly intelligent. Well, at least intelligent enough to vote for someone more like Colin Powell.

Of course, the wingnuts and halfwits in the voting pool have enough clout and numbers that I see her making a solid effort and possibly going third-party or write-in, but history has shown that we are a solid two-party system. The best she could do is split the GOP vote and guarantee a Democrat win in 2012.

ucme's avatar

@janbb That’s fair enough, I was slightly reticent about including him. I just remember him as a peanut farmer wearing a big old toothy grin that’s all

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