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If a screening test is 90% accurate, and your result comes back positive, what are the chances it is a false positive?
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July 16th, 2009
Let’s take the example that the screening test determines if someone is a terrorist, you are demonstrating the device and you receive urgent information that a potential attacker is in the building. Security teams seal every exit and all 3,000 people inside are rounded up to be tested.
The first 30 pass. Then, someone fails. Police pounce on them.
How sure are you that this person is a terrorist?
A. 90%
B. 10%
C. 0.3%
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