What are your thoughts on the (foiled) plot to assassinate the Iranian Ambassador in a Wash. DC restaurant ?

Great question. Had they carried it out, it would have been considered an act of war against the USA, the Saudi Arabians and Israel. Since they failed to do it, I don’t think current US isolationism fervor will allow us to retaliate militarily. But it will further isolate Iran as an international pariah and demonstrate that the aging Ayatollahs that actually rule the country are losing their grip on sanity.

Had they succeeded, would it not have been interpreted as an act of war BY (rather than against) the USA against Iran since it would have occured on US soil against the Iranian diplomat ?

This would then give Iran an excuse to go to war against the USA.

It was the Saudi ambassador, not Iranian. Here is the story.

(Btw- I posted this link with my iPhone)

@Buttonstc The plot was to assistance the Saudi Ambassador first. That was to be carried out by a bombing in a crowded Capitol Hill restaurant. So it would have killed up to 100 or more Americans. They were going to then commit a similar bombing at the restaurant the Israeli Ambassador frequently visits, killing him and scores more Americans. I cannot fathom how you see that as American aggression against Iran.

I don’t view it that way. I was just citing an interpretation of the intent behind this. A motive, if you will.

@Chuck

I have not updated my OS version yet.

I know, I know. I’m a technotard :)

Obviously when/if I upgrade my phone to iphone4 that’s part of the package. I’m just not there yet.

@ETpro

My apologies for scrambling up which ambassador it was. Both you and Chuck are correct, of course.

(That will teach me not to be distracted by playing Sudoku while watching TV while there is important breaking news :) Too much multitasking is not such a great idea.

I’ll be busy eating and digesting my appropriate slice of humble pie now

(hangs her red-faced head)

And I wish I could remember exactly which talking head posited the above interpretation about the US being blamed in the eyes of the world.

Nevertheless, the entire thing is appropriately Byzantine.

And the latest now, Iran (true to form) is denying their involvement and blaming it on a “Zionist plot in conjunction with Israel’s supporter, the Great Satan known as the US.”

And how predictable is that ?

However, I’m interested in how it would have been interpreted by the rest of the world had they succeeded and their connection was not so apparent. What do you think?

What were they hoping for other than just generally causing international chaos ?

I realize it’s a pure hypothetical since they didn’t succeed but I’d be interested in what others think could have been the likliest scenario.

Anybody ?

I wonder if anybody is actually surprised they was try something like this.

@Buttonstc Happens to me all the time. Thanks for the apology. :-)

I am as baffled as you by why they decided to do this. The only thing I can guess is that, despite how long Murphy’s Law has been known, high-level officials still seem oblivious to its existence. Take for instance the moronic idea the ATF had to allow massive illegal arms sales to the Mexican Drug Cartels in order to track the path of the guns, which, of course, they utterly failed to do. When they hatch these plots, they are thinking they will work flawlessly and nobody will ever find out. Had it worked and had there been no apparent Iranian connection, the bombing would probably have further strained US Saudi relations. They are already strained over US support for the Arab Spring. They Saudi Royal Family strongly opposes democracy in the Middle East. Obama’s decision to veto the Palestinian bid for a sovereign state status stretched the two countries friendship further still. If the Iranians could drive a wedge between the US and Saudi Arabia, that would be a great benefit to the Iranians, who want to take a leading role in Middle Eastern affairs and are opposed in that effort at ever turn by Saudi Arabia and Israel.

From what I understand, the FBI was going to supply the weapons and bomb materials. Or maybe it was Homeland Security. In other words, the plan only got as far as it did because of the efforts of investigative services to give someone enough rope to hang himself with.

Given the ability of cadres within our security services to make mountains out of molehills, I reserve judgment. I want to see the evidence. I’m not just going to accept the FBI’s say-so.

Of course the Iranians are not going to admit to the plot. I mean, what government in its right mind would own up to covert ops? In any case, denial does not mean they did it. It doesn’t mean they didn’t do it, either. It only means denial.

This could as easily be a provocation as anything else except that the US does not want to go to war with Iran. If we did, we would have done so under Bush.

This could have been the efforts of a rogue idealogue. One hopes that the FBI (or whoever) has evidence of contact with folks in Iran, and can provide the identities of these folks and establish their place in the hierarchy within Iran. One further hopes there is evidence of a connection to top leadership.

But it strains credulity to think that the Iranians could be so incompetent as to allow their secure communications mechanisms to be so compromised that they could trace this alleged plot to the highest officials. And by God, if the US can do this trick, then we would have to be doubly incompetent to allow Iran to know we can do this. I don’t have much respect for the FBI, or for the policy arm of the foreign service, but I do not think they would compromise such a valuable asset, unless they already had another one in place.

So I doubt we can prove a connection between this plot and any high level of Iranian govt. I believe that this is a rogue idiot or entrapment. Or both.

Tactically, how does this serve us? It might make the FBI look good. It might make the public have more confidence in our anti-terror efforts. It might make us look good to the Saudis, who may be worried about the Arab Spring. It might give us an excuse to pressure other countries to up the sanctions on Iran. It is highly unlikely we are looking for a provocation to start hostilities.