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How much money would you put on Betelgeuse going supernova soon?

Asked by rebbel (35550points) December 25th, 2019

“Of course, astronomically speaking, “soon” could mean today, tomorrow, or 100,000 years from now.”

Betelgeuse’s brightness has decreased recently; a possible sign that it is going supernova.
But then again, its brightness has decreased before, and it’s still there.
What do you think are the odds that this time will be it?

“When it happens (it would have actually happened [about] 690 years before we see it on Earth given the star’s distance) it will be as bright as the full moon.”

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