What is your guess of Tesla's market cap on Dec 21?

For those of you who do not live and breathe TSLA every waking minute, here is a summary of what is going on. In the lead-up to their Q3 earnings, a huge deal was made of TSLA qualifying for the S&P 500 if they could somehow show a profit.

Well, lo and behold, TSLA showed a profit of 76 cents per share. That qualified TSLA for inclusion in the S&P 500. On Sep 8, the S&P 500 committee that determines which 500 companies make up the index, decided to not invite TSLA. That inaction sent the stock plunging about 20%, down to $330 on the same day!

The committee decided in their November meeting to include TSLA. Since then, the stock has been on a tear. Since the announcement was made on Nov 16, TSLA stock has gone up by $177 from $408 up to $585; in percentage terms the gain is over 40%. Tesla’s market cap, which is simply the product of issued shares times the stock price, has exploded from under $400 billion to over $550 billion. It is now worth more than all the other automakers combined!

Of course, TSLA has other reasons for its stock to be on a tear. Demand for its products is extremely high among the movers and shakers, and is gradually reaching Main Street. Competition is gearing up, as you would expect. However, the competition has so far not been able to dent Tesla’s massive lead in EV technology.

In case you are wondering why S&P500 inclusion is such a big deal, keep in mind the number of mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that attempt to mirror the S&P500. The way these funds mirror the S&P 500 is to basically own the same stocks in the same ratios as the index. So until a stock is actually added to an index, the index funds do not own any of it. By the date the stock is added, they are required to hold enough of it to not have it affect the index fund’s performance. In the case of TSLA, because of its substantial market cap even before the announcement, the committee decided to give the funds plenty of time. The actual date of inclusion was set at Dec 21. Therefore, index funds, which control $11.2 trillion, are required to purchase TSLA between the announcement and Dec 21. The amount they are required to invest in TSLA is a moving target because every time the TSLA market cap goes up, its share of the index goes up. Currently, its share is estimated at 1.5%. Therefore, about $150 billion is required to be invested in TSLA stock by Dec 21.

So, now that you are an expert on the stock market, my question is: How high will the TSLA market cap go by Dec 21?

Just by way of comparison, Apple is the largest company by market cap. Apple’s market cap is a shade below $2 trillion. You can see the top 50 at

https://www.dogsofthedow.com/largest-companies-by-market-cap.htm

Remember no expertise is required. In fact, my experience with TSLA has been that expert opinion has been consistently wrong.