General Question

HP's avatar

What do you believe is the actual inflation rate in the United States?

Asked by HP (6425points) February 3rd, 2022

Will it soon get worse?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

5 Answers

SEKA's avatar

Higher than the dems claim it to be yet lower than what the reps insist it is. If history has shown us anything, it is that yes it is likely to get worse.

flutherother's avatar

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics say the Consumer Price Index increased by 7.0% last year. Gasoline prices were up by almost 50% and used vehicle prices went up by 37% so there is quite a big variation within that figure.

elbanditoroso's avatar

No way to tell. There are a dozen different inflation measures that are used by different agencies for different reasons. Media and government pick and choose the ones they want to make the point they want.

Statistics, made up of numbers, can be jiggered and manipulated to meet the political need of the day.

capet's avatar

Similar to @elbanditoroso‘s answer. As a random American, I think the three most important types of inflation to communicate to the public would be a) something to capture wage inflation for the poor, b) something to capture cost inflation for the poor, c) something to capture the “amount of bailout” that is occurring (i.e. impact on financial stability/distortion).

From that perspective, I think looking at the headline CPI number overestimates a) and underestimates b) given current circumstances (those relationships would be different in other circumstances). I don’t think we really have a good way to measure c), at least not in an “inflation rate” type of way.

The biggest issue I have is with b): I think, due to technical issues, rental costs have been underweighted in the CPI for a long time.

And then when interpreting a), I think a lot of economic analysts still look at the CPI as a good proxy for the wage level, and still look at the wage level as a good proxy for the wage level of the poor, and that’s a mistake.

But that’s just one view based on my own values and what I think is important based on common sense. Like @elbanditoroso said, you would want different measures to analyze different issues, and those different measures allow politicians to mix and match and obscure them.

kritiper's avatar

6.2%
Yes. With minimum wages rising, inflation will continue to rise.

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