What will be the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

I hope not.
I also don’t have a clue.
Imagine that eight billion people, with their eight billion lives, their livelihoods are depending on a few men with small dicks.
That’s so wrong, and so infuriating.
A few things give me a sliver of hope, and calm: almost the entire world population, including many (I don’t have numbers, but there’s talks about protests) Russian civilians.
Who wants a fucking armed conflict, in these days?
Another hopeful thing, or so I want to believe, is the fact that Putin has two children (two daughters, I believe).
Surely he won’t let it get so far as letting his children suffer, or worse?
That’s maybe good news for us.
For now I feel for the Ukrainian people, and for all the people around the world that are worried and anxious.

The one certainty to this is that everybody loses. Russia, being the kleptocracy as it is already is economically anemic, and cannot afford military adventures while crippling sanctions deprive it of one of the few commercial exports propping up its economy. On the other hand, Europe will be deprived of natural gas and that essential fuel will skyrocket in price (along with petroleum). And those prices will hit us at the pumps. And Ukraine will be an economic basket case from here on out. This has been a grave miscalculation by the West, which failed to assess Russsia’s understandable concerns with its borders in view of their history of invasions. Putin and his people look at that history, and determine the economic pain more than justified. This puts a stop to Ukrainian membership in NATO as well as the EU, and serves as an object lesson to any former Warsaw Pact places with similar ideas. And that military response business——the prospect of mushroom clouds tells me——Ukraine just plain ain’t worth it. Putin knows it.

Probably the annexation or cessation of Donbas, and a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

Putin is an atrocious thug, but he’s also quite popular. I can’t envisage any scenario where Russia suddenly becomes comfortable with letting Ukraine out of its sphere of influence.

The USA would do exactly the same thing in Putin’s position, and has done similarly numerous times in Central and South America.

As gross as it is to say, I think the best possible outcome is for Ukraine to put as many Russian soldiers in body bags as possible. Combined with brutal sanctions (especially of the Russian oligarchs), I think this could put Putin in a very weak position domestically.

@Kropotkin I’ve heard mixed stats on Putin’s popularity among Russians.

@Kropotkin: “The USA would do exactly the same thing in Putin’s position, and has done similarly numerous times in Central and South America.”

Yep. The corporate media here has been successful (yet again) at getting a large percentage of the US population legitimately outraged and ready for war, despite having no understanding of any of the parts. It’s the same old pattern. If you ask questions, you’re a Saddam Putin apologist. Yet, every warmonger sitting behind a keyboard most likely just heard of Ukraine a couple of months ago.

Note: You can be an anti-imperialist who opposes Putin while simultaneously rejecting the notion that the US has any business being a part of any response. It’s also possible to be disgusted that US citizens are so outraged, considering US current and past foreign policy/violence.

It’s the end of democracy in Ukraine and Russia will set up a puppet government and probably install nuclear weapons on its territory as it did prior to 1991. I think NATO is weakened and the Baltic States, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia will now be the focus of Putin’s attention and will be worried that the west will be unable to protect them. It is a dark day for Europe and Ukraine.

@product It’s a lot tougher to convince people that they should simply sit by and let a dictator like Putin take over another sovereign country because the U.S. has been bad in the past. I’m not saying I think we should send troops to start WWIII. I’m just saying one side clearly has a more impactful argument.

@Demosthenes: “It’s a lot tougher to convince people that they should simply sit by and let a dictator like Putin take over another sovereign country because the U.S. has been bad in the past.”

1. “US has been bad in the past”?

What “past” are we talking about? Providing support for Saudi bombing and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen? Continued support for the apartheid in Israel? More recent bombings? Military and covert action throughout the entire history of central and south America? Violent sanctions on places like Venezuela? I mean, where to even start.

2. The outrage against Putin and has been a propaganda project in the works for many years. The seeds were set with all of the fake “Russiagate” election bullshit that had right-wing liberals willing to restart the cold-war (or worse). Now, people are intensely interested in foreign affairs because corporate media has no problem creating this interest (and bloodlust) when it comes to official enemies’ actions. There are not principles being upheld here. None. The warmongering going on right now isn’t motivated by anti-imperialism, right? It can’t be.

I have people in the office here who are outraged suddenly, and they act as though they are scholars of Ukraine and have been as intensely interested when the US showed support ($ and otherwise) for the 2014 coup. Suddenly they are acting as though they have been following separatist movements in Donbas and Luhansk for years.

@Demosthenes: “I’m just saying one side clearly has a more impactful argument.”

One can have that argument. But it can’t happen in a vacuum. The last country on the planet that should have any say in the matter is the United States. And I would imagine that any reasonable argument would take into consideration current ignored violence happening at the hands of the parties involved. It would also take into consideration things such as the legitimacy of surrounding a nuclear power with encroaching NATO members and then pretending to be shocked that a right-wing maniac uses it as a pretense (along with declarations of supporting separatists) as a justification for war.

When CNN announces that Putin invaded Ukraine, it should have sparked introspection in the minds and hearts of US citizens. It was like looking in the mirror. Instead, an aggressive propaganda campaign has people (liberals here in MA, in my experience) willing to risk nuclear war as though what it happening in Ukraine is something out of the ordinary and has an effect on people here.

I guess I just think that all empires are bad, including Russia. I’m not saying anyone on the left is cozying up to Putin or defending him. I can think that the U.S. is hypocritical but not think that means there’s no reason to strongly condemn what Russia is doing and consider invading another country to be entirely wrong. Yes, that includes when the U.S. does it.

And I don’t buy this “backed into a corner” argument. Ukraine/Europe was not a threat to invade Russia, the only situation in which this could be justified. The fact that many Russians are protesting this war and being arrested for it shows that what happened wasn’t the will of the Russian people, that they were so afraid of NATO expansion that an invasion was inevitable. Or are these Russians on the street just victims of the same propaganda?

@rebbel almost the entire world population, including many (I don’t have numbers, but there’s talks about protests) Russian civilians.
Who wants a fucking armed conflict, in these days?

I read it last night, and I do hope it is true.

But right now they have closed the border and started recruiting everyone from 18 to 60.

Should I hold on to the hope anymore?