The biggest problem with the ACA is the misunderstanding of how insurance works. Congress understands the rules, but forgot to take into consideration the actions of the people buying insurance.
I have been a Certified Financial Planner since 1988 and have had dealings with many clients on the subject of health insurance.
Here are the major misunderstandings:
1. People with private health insurance do not always keep the same policy their entire life. Some find jobs and drop private insurance for company provided insurance.
2. Some people pay the first premium and then cancel because they have found a better deal elsewhere, have been able to get insurance through a spouse’s place of work, or just change their mind.
3. Younger people have too many distractions, (new car, new TV, new clothes, etc.,) and just decide they can use the money better elsewhere and will take a chance on the health insurance. Many of the penalty rules have been so diluted, there is now very little teeth in that part of the law.
So, it really does not matter how many signed up. It will be how many will have the insurance a year from now? How many will have the insurance six months from now? I have had many young families make multiple changes to their life insurance, health insurance, car insurance, and most have no disability insurance. I have had clients buy health and life insurance and then use the free look option to find other coverage.
There will be those who the plan will help. Especially those with pre-existing conditions. But there will be those who never pay that second premium, or keep the plan for a long period of time.
There never really will be a final number because the number will be forever changing. They can give you an exact number for one day, but the next day the number will be totally different.