A sudden change like that would cause total war over primary resources such as water and food. War and the negative ecological impact would cause a correction almost immediately. Whether or not humans survive the correction would depend on how widespread the use of nuclear weapons were used in these wars. Most of past human achievement, knowledge and recognizable culture might become inaccessible in the aftermath and surviving humans may find themselves living in small tribal groups comparable to those of the pre-Colombian American Indian.
It is estimated that homo sapiens began walking the earth approximately 2 million years ago. It took until 1800ce for the H. Sapien population to reach 1 billion (If you look at the world population graph here you will notice that, after a long, flat line, it goes nearly vertical just after 1800ce up to the present).
Improvements due to the industrial revolution caused a magnitudinal acceleration and we reached 2 billion in 1930. That’s a doubling in only 130 years for what it took approximately 2 million years to achieve. The third billion took only 30 years (1959). The fourth, fifteen years (1974), and the fifth in thirteen years (1987). There are twice as many people on earth than there were in 1970.
Presently, we are producing 80 million people per year, a growth rate of 1.3%, 20% of whom are not expected to reach the age of 20 years due to malnutrition and disease. News items on the recent mass migrations into wealthy Europe from poorer countries under stress may be just the begining of many mass migrations from poor to wealthy areas around the world. What we’re seeing may be just a drop-in-the-bucket preview of what earth’s future may hold. The good news is that the rate of increase has dropped in the past decade and we are not expected to reach 10 billion until just before 2100ce. In the meantime, human invention in all fields is given a chance to catch up to the great need produced by this population.
The development of better communications, better transportation for shipping food quickly and efficiently, arguably better crops and more efficient use of cropland, even changes in world politics since the two World Wars, have staved off the extreme crisis envisioned in the first paragraph above.
It has been argued that technology may be our saviour in all this, but it was technology in the first place that enabled humans to populate so quickly. True, but for those who would like to turn the clock back, here’s a vision for you: In 1900 Chicago had a human population of 1.6 million and a horse population of approx. 250,000. Each horse produced 20 lbs of horseshit every 24 hours for a grand total of 5 million pounds of horseshit that had to be dealt with on a daily basis. Much of it was piled high in a midden near downtown and seeped into the water supply or degraded into the muddy streets becoming airborne in the summer months. Cholera, hepatitis, and a plethora of other diseases were commonplace. Women complained of the liquid horseshit that gathered at the bottom of their skirts when they crossed the muddy streets. Today Chicago has more than 7 million people which would require 1.3 million horses producing 25 million pounds of horseshit daily. I like horses. I even prefer the smell of horseshit to that of other animals. But this is a bit much. And it would be an on-going public health catastrophe.
So, we are dependent upon technology to deal with problems resulting from
population growth. There is no turning back. We are making headway in passive and renewable energy sources, but entrepreneurship in these areas have been considered by many slow to meet the rising need. Some leaders in the green movement, such as Stewart Brand, are even taking a closer look at GAO foods and genetic modifications of other products, including human beings. It is called Bright Green Environmentalism. Although controversial among the older environmentalist stalwarts, it is worth looking into. Bright Green may be our only practical choice.
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