General Question

jfos's avatar

What will happen with North Korea?

Asked by jfos (7362points) May 19th, 2009

What are your predictions on the international dilemma concerning North Korea? Firing test missiles, alleged nuclear program, unflinching diplomatic standpoint… What do you think will happen in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? etc…

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33 Answers

oratio's avatar

Not much for a long time. North Korea is China’s domain. What they say goes. The only thing the US and EU can do is put economic pressure on this country that doesn’t respond to it.

westy81585's avatar

You can expect further sanctions and isolation if the continue to pursue the nuclear weapons. I wouldn’t expect any military action on our part though unless they actually start shooting missiles at us (which honestly I wouldn’t worry about, we have LOTS of stuff that can shoot them down).

As far as the country itself. Kim Jong Il is going to be replaced within the next 10 years (I’d expect within 5)... PROBABLY by his youngest son. You “could” expect to see a power struggle if one of his other sons or a military leader or something tries to take control…. but I don’t expect to see that so long as Kim points out who he wants to lead after him.

Eventually, I think you can expect to see the country collapse if things continue as they are. As it is they rely heavily on foreign aid simply to operate. Their people are heavily indoctrinated, but I don’t think a manner exists to indoctrinate a people so badly that there aren’t some cracks in that foundation.

With countries like this, they have the potential to collapse at any moment (think Khemer Rouge [spelling?]). BUT they also have the potential to last for a long long time (Cuba could be an example, but they’re NOWHERE near as oppressive).

jfos's avatar

@westy81585 What “LOTS of stuff that can shoot [missles] down” are you referring to? It is to my understanding that if we knew a missle was being fired (such as the test missle that North Korea fired in April), we could possibly shoot it down. If missles were fired covertly, however, we do not have turrets lining our coastlines that could prevent a missle from striking land.

westy81585's avatar

@jfos There’s not an airplane flying on this planet right now that our military doesn’t know about. We can detect ANY missile being fired, covertly or not, ESPECIALLY in our own airspace and/or trouble spots (such as North Korea or Iran, we watch them like hawks). Once we’ve detected it we have various missiles capable of shooting down ICBMs, we already have those lasers that can shoot them down, redirection methods, etc, etc, probably stuff we don’t even know about cuz it’s classified.

Our military is by far and away the best in the world… #2 is so far back it’s almost a joke… and #2 is on our side.

oratio's avatar

@westy81585 Those missiles won’t go for american troops. they will go into S.Korea and Japan. The biggest problem is, that if one fires the nukes, so does another, and another… The domino effect is the problem. Not N.Koreas nukes themselves.

When nukes get fired somewhere, there is not much time for second guessing.

jfos's avatar

@westy81585 About a year ago, I was discussing a similar hypothetical situation with an individual who worked in the realm of defense contracting/development/etc., and he said that despite our advanced technology and equipment, being able to detect, locate, and exterminate a threatening missile flying towards America is not something we have mastered or should be confident about.

westy81585's avatar

@oratio South Korea and Japan are also both watching North Korea like hawks. Granted their tech isn’t as great as ours, but they’ve also got us helping them (we have thousands of troops and lots of tech set up there).

The only way North Koreas nukes are gonna really hit us is if they covertly send them over land barriers and detonate them at their target. Missiles isn’t going to happen.

@jfos Trust me when I say, we have nothing to worry about as far as missiles. The stuff we “know” about, is capable (albeit not heavily tested) to take out missiles. The stuff we “don’t know” about, is probably amazing.

And one thing you really have to remember, is that if North Korea fired a missile first, not even China would have their back for us counterstriking. And honestly, even if they did, China for all their potential and might is no match for us (especially in a missile fight). .....now Russia, they could give us a fight… but I don’t think they would either.

oratio's avatar

@westy81585 Interesting. I think you have some over-confidence in anti-missile systems not shared with countries globally. Shooting a missile out of the air is – rocket science.

If american tech was so supreme, maybe you should stop buying foreign equipment. Also, please return our swedish submarines. If you can find them. I think you need a reality check.

westy81585's avatar

American tech IS that supreme. We spend more on R+D than the entire rest of the world spends on their entire military budgets combined (and that’s not counting our operating costs). We spend more in one month in Iraq, then the next best military does in a year of operating.

As it stands right now, the US military is BY FAR the best in the world, and has the best technology. That’s not overconfidence or a false reality. That’s FACT.

oratio's avatar

@westy81585 I agree. Big spending is what makes US military stand out.

US military is the strongest military power. That’s different.

CMaz's avatar

It willl some day be a big pile of ashes.

dannyc's avatar

Nothing much if U.S. foreign policy becomes more self-controlled. If the U.S. does not try to lead, but works with its allies, perhaps taking a back seat for once rather than think it has to solve all the world’s problems. The world does not need super cop, but super intellect and reason.

westy81585's avatar

@dannyc If anything I think that’s what the US (even under captain J-ass [bush]) has been doing in the case of North Korea.

Crusader's avatar

Allow NK autonomy, help develope the economy, without requiring irresponsible liberal cultural madates in their media, watch as the flower of prosperity blooms. But hold them Accountable, not like the wine drinking with Kim Jong Il Margaret Albright and Bill ‘Shill’ Clinton who turning a blind eye to counterfeit money production and juman rights violations….First, accountability and honesty, at least supplies for the poor.

oratio's avatar

@Crusader Interesting. Not an answer I expected from you C.

westy81585's avatar

@Crusader You want to talk about turning a blind eye to North Korea’s human rights violations, counterfeit money schemes, and general works of evil? You can go ahead and site every American President from Truman on, “liberal” and “conservative”.

Or are you going to revise history again to fit your crazy views?

Crusader's avatar

@westy81585

Well, some progress here, at least you acknowledge some culpability of Democrat leaders, though, in Truth, the lack of accountability began After Andrew Jackson. And culminated with Roosevelt, and has been the province of (primarily) democrated leaders since, or neo-con centrists.

And regarding historical recidivism, no, I will leave that to you and yours, though, again, I am heartened to observe an acknowledgement and admission of potential culpability from the Democrat leadership from you.

mammal's avatar

if America stopped squeezing every country, with a differing ideology, and treated them with a modicum of respect, N Korea would be a little more relaxed, less oppressive and the tension would ease, being communist is not a crime it is a credible form of government, freedom, true freedom allows a country to choose it’s own laws and governmental system. America preaches tolerance, but in fact isn’t, at all tolerant. Most of this thread like many others, is childish, i frequently wonder at the age of the users on here, shooting down missiles , 9/11 should have highlighted just how vulnerable America is. N Korea would make that incident look like a picnic, please be sensible.

westy81585's avatar

@Crusader What I can tell you is what any smart leader would tell you. We haven’t tried to force North Korea to change it’s ways because believe it or not, we’re NOT world police. Moreover, they have the military backing of China and Russia.

And if you go ahead and look up a chart of the best presidents in US history, I believe 8 of them were considered liberal. Heck in the last 100 years the only GREAT conservative one is arguably Reagan (Isenhower [spelling?] carried his own, but by no means was great). FDR who you seem to hate, won what, 4 elections in landslide form? He brought us out of the great depression, and won WW2… You can thank the “culmination of a lack of accountability” for the Superpower status this country enjoys today.

I don’t hate conservatives… Heck some of my best friends are conservatives. And I don’t for a moment think liberals are free of fault (heck look at Carter, were it not for his post presidency work he’d be one of the worst leaders in our history)....... What I DO hate, are FAR left, or FAR right nutjobs, such as yourself… who distort and alter historical facts to fit their own corrupt view and to reinforce their crazy beliefs… and who believe the other side is completely devoid of good ideas, and might as well be the devil.

(and honestly, if you’re listing Andrew Jackson, the same president who completely ignored the Supreme Court and is responsible for the massacre of hundreds of thousands of native americans…. then I think you need to take a look at what you call “accountability”)

Garebo's avatar

The little deranged idiot will get knocked off, or be used as a puppet by the Chinese which essentially what he is.

Crusader's avatar

@westy81585
First off, what you have to inform me of and what any ‘smart leader’ would inform me of is not necessarily the same information. Personally, I consider myself Center-right. As I have stipulated repeatedly, socially conservative, in the context of Modern America vs. historic America, this is a very liberal interpretation of Christian/secular government. What you desire is a Complete re-evaluation of historic mores and values, such that it completely dishonors the intentions of the founding fathers, (and mothers.)

That said, NK feels justified because, 1.) Japanese occupation and Amerian neutrality during this period, and 2.) desire for racial and cultural homogenaeity-though exceptions are made for the exceptional and loyal. (not Rap/Porno/Liberal Homosexual Hegemony McNorth Korea,-though I do enjoy a Big Mac now and then, I must admit…)

And, yes, since Roosevelt, and because of him, we are and require to be the world police. Granted, certain advantages have been realized as a result of such dominance, domestically and abroad, and rule of law generally prevails, domestically and abroad. It is the caucacian/Jewish/Gypsy genocide/destruction that resulted from such superpower-enabling policies I thoroughly and vehemently oppose. Though if you for one moment believe that presidential votes are decided by the general public, you are sadly naive, or deliberately misguiding others. Public perception is altered to provide the Impression of democratic voting, all leaders, (in the USA and most of the West,) are pre-ordained, years, decades in advance. The campaign process and the zealousness of its advocacy defines the compromises each side is compelled to give (the perception of,) for the other. Its all for Show. A grand performance…The most successful Republican? An actor. The best Thespians are regarded as wonderful administrators…Its All perception. Perception is reality for 95% of folks, and entitlements another 75%.

Again, FDR was well establised Long Before the elections. He had a legacy of powerful banker and industrials friends whom all provided him with the patronage and Perception he required, (and influenced perception within their ‘voting’ employee communities, no unions then, or collective bargaining, Only Christian values prevented Tyranny, No liberals or neo-con industrials/bankers were Christians then for the vast majority, certainly not in Roosevelts inner circle,) though, for complete world domination, he and the leading families/industralists/bankers needed a scapegoats(s) who better than the ‘evil’ German ‘Huns’ (they had already been dehumanized in media 10 years earlier,) and then, the enigmatic Japanese, ‘nips’. But first, enrich them with very liberal trade and create a worthy, but inevitably losing, adversary, depopulate and conquer those pesky Caucasian Christians once and for all, they are So stubborn after all…

Also, Though it is good that you seem to give the perception of a critical thinking independent non-partisan, your previous posts, and continued personal attacks and assumptions lead me to believe it is merely a Trojan Horse. Again, I have supported Liberal politics previously, but I see it now as a party of entitlements, political expediency, and ‘forced conversion’ every education publically funded ‘indoctrinates’ not educates, dissent is harshly penalized, and with severe cnsequences socially and economically. This is not America. This is Facism. True Christians believe in Free Will, you may not choose the way they believe, but they are not going to take away your livelihood, your social group, your opportunities. America is the best of both worlds for liberals, forced conversion publically funded, and forced bussing, publically funded, and forced distribution of wealth/opportunity, funded Not by the opportunistic mercantile industriaist/centrists of history and the decendent, but by the longsuffering Christian low and middle class.

And, regarding Native persecutions and Jackson it was the will of Congress to proceed West, and political concerns such as another UK invasion or French for that matter, factored prominently. You libs seem to have myopic vision when it suits you, predicatable and expected. Also, Many atrocites commited against white protestants by Indians, (especially during the French and Indian war,) though reciprocation is not advisable, we are human and it happens. The Indians have theirs Now, though they continue to Hate, very little actual forgiveness, even though 95% of Indian deaths were from Disease, unavaoidable in any case unless they completely isolated themselves, same in South America, they had no resistance, the Real reason that settlers managed a foothold in Virginia was because of disease affecting the Indians, not any sense of ‘brotherhood’ or ‘Thanksgiving’ that is a myth. They would have Killed all the ‘invaders’ summarily, (and had many times done so previously,) had contact not resulted in wholesale death by disease.I feel no guilt about their lack of immunity, that was Nature, and evidently Gods will, they did not advance technologically enough to travel the world along with the rest of us, and were isolated as a result, consequently they experienced a Plague not unlike the West, (black plague killed 1/3 of Europe, probably brought from China/India where they had immunity,)

My point about Jackson is he defied the Federal Reserve, the same private families that dominate the banking system and are Not Christian. Jackson wanted true sovereignty and a Gold Standard, he was and is villified, Dispite his stellar record for patriotism and genius in time of War, and his accountability, honesty, and charity. Kennedy was also interested in abandoning the Fed Reserve, (intl bank oligarchy,) we all know his outcome, and his brother…Lincoln flirted with the idea, too, same result. The Fed Reserve families define Everything. Like it or not. Obama has defined dissent to the Fed Reserve families as an Extremist Group-guess who he is beholden too…But as long as you are getting yours its all good, right? Regardless of principles, ethics, or justice…Typical liberal/neo-con parrot…

LKidKyle1985's avatar

ah you guys are all noobs. North Korea only develops these programs so they can sell the technology on the black market for funds to support their ever inefficient economy. That country is one natural disaster or famine or what ever away from total collapse. The people are starving as it is. The government has no legitimacy, and even north koreans are aware of the prosperity and success of the free south korea. North korea might have a large military but its stuck in the 60s, except its limited nuclear capabilities. But i don’t think they want to use them, or even have the technology to mount a nuclear weapon to a missile. I think when the government does collapse there is going to be a big humanitarian crisis cause all those people will starve, and south korea is gonna have a hell of a time catching the north back up to speed.

oratio's avatar

@LKidKyle1985 Well, that’s all up to china what’s going to happen there. I agree, to that their capabilities are limited, and that they don’t want to use them. Crazy as he seems – that Oompa-Loompa rock star – he is likely intelligent enough to understand that launching nukes would be the end of him and North Korea, and quite possibly human civilization.

Nukes give them geopolitical power, and considerable security. That’s why countries get nukes. But to sell them on the black market? That’s not a reason to get nukes. That’s a reason to grow opium. Do you think that we wouldn’t find out and know where they came from? Do you think you can just sell nukes on the black market? What black market would that be?

The nuke black market?

Nuclear fission is hardly a secret anymore. No government needs N.Korea to develop and get nukes. There are probably only a few terrorist groups that would be interested in that. And they couldn’t possible buy warheads to sustain N.Korea’s economy.

Delivering and detonating a warhead is possible but hard, it comes with considerable consequences and would not help the cause at all. You would have to do that with a target that would motivate such a weapon and where you don’t want to live after it detonates. The likely terrorist nuclear weapon would be dirty bombs. Much cheaper, easier and most likely quite effective.

I find it unlikely that it would be in the interest of N.Korea to sell warheads, and unlikely they would be that stupid. Sure, anything is possible and must be considered. That’s why the US has a intelligence service as every country on the planet do.

@westy81585 has it right – even with all the stars in his eyes – when he says that N.Korea is watched like a hawk, from sky to ground. There is no immediate danger, just a troublesome geopolitical situation.

N.Korea will fall. Not likely through revolution or war. It will fall when the system can’t be sustained anymore. It is still going strong. Cause the sanctions against N.Korea actually helps Kim Il-sung. That they have it hard is considered our fault, and makes their “struggle” even more real.

westy81585's avatar

@Crusader didn’t even read that novel…. I don’t need the ulcers and headaches from reading your nonsense

Crusader's avatar

@westy81585
Ignorance of the Law is no excuse for disobeying it.
It your case, willful ignorance of response to unsubstantiated personal attacks and baseless accussations further estblishes a agenda, not a true dialogue, on your part, Trojan Horse recognized. True Hypocrisy.

Regarding this thread, NK will prosper, eventually, with apporopriate involvemnet and accountablity from both the West and the East.

Garebo's avatar

Boy, its hard to follow this back and forth cat.
Little ill, is quite ill, and is a megalomaniac starved for attention.
Another reason to legitimize Japan building up a military once again.
The world elite need a war now, however it is manufactured.

LKidKyle1985's avatar

@oratio actually, syria had a building under construction that suspiciously had the same blue prints as a nuclear power plant in North Korea, and i do believe N korea sells its long range missle prototypes to other countries

Syria/korea
missles page 3 start at first paragraph.
Khan second paragraph from the top.

Obviously, the North Koreans do not plan on making the proliferation of their nuclear and delivery system technology the foundation of their economy, but they certainly are interested in getting something for the work they have done. It serves 2 purposes, the more they research and develop the more secure they are, and the more they can sell or trade with other countries interesting in acquiring what they have.

oratio's avatar

@LKidKyle1985 This became quite long. Not my intent. Text walls are not that pleasant.

I am not trying to white wash N.Korea and I don’t mean that there is no risks at all. This is why N.Korea is watched and held up to scrutiny. Nuclear proliferation is a wide area, and selling nuclear warheads very specific. That was what we discussed, not if they are up to mischief. Gas centrifuges sold to N.Korea from Pakistan seems very likely, and I am sure it’s proven.

I couldn’t open the italian link about the missiles. Do you have another source or a html version. I don’t know what the problem is. Probably local.

A missile system is also different. It can deliver anything that you can fit. It is important to restrict this kind of technology as well and arms sales in general world wide. At the moment, the US is the worlds biggest exporter of arms, and to countries that isn’t really americas friends, and unethically supply to countries in conflict. There are many countries that do this. The canons they kill pakistanis with by Kashmir are european. Everybody is selling their weaponry, but nuclear warheads are a different matter.

Agreed. The R&D is for security. It’s also important to remember that N.Korea can’t upset China to much. There is no love lost between these countries, but this country is the geopolitical center in southeast Asia. Point being, you don’t mess around with China. Not anymore. If you want to see change in N.Korea you need to go through China.

Nuclear plants are also something different. I see your point, but any country is free to develop fission plants, and if that is true that syria uses N.Korean blueprints, well, they could build fission plants anyway. My point was that it is not a secret how to do it. The link you provided is very interesting and shows that they are keeping their eyes on N.Korean relations. The US has stopped using the term “rogue state” about N.Korea, likely because of political reasons but also that haven’t been able to show support for direct support to terrorist organisations. This is a part of the ongoing investigation to see/show if they are. The problem with Syria is Lebanon, Hisbollah and the Israeli conflict. As Israel has nuclear weapon it would be a problematic shift in balance if Syria got them.

Many countries can create a nuclear arsenal and chose not to. Sweden is just one country that can create one in a decade. The knowledge is there but it takes time to build. Becoming a nuclear nation is a double edged sword. You change the nature and balance of power and politics, and push the centre of gravity of international security towards you. Not only do you make yourself a nuclear nation but a also a nuclear target.

LKidKyle1985's avatar

@oratio Well you have some good points, but you know everyone knows in theory how to make nuclear energy and what not. But the engineering required to take theory from paper into working model is another thing and that is difficult and not widely known. Like you said sweden could do it in a decade, but thats still a long time. Anyways we are starting to get a little off subject.

And yeah i know lots of countries sell their weaponry to others, but its a different story when we are talking about selling prototypes of long range missiles to countries like Iran who are interested in wiping israel off the map, and selling nuclear power plant blue prints to syria when we know syria wants to build nuclear weapons (even more suspicious when the country who is supplying the blue prints has already tested a nuclear weapon) And been involved in an international nuclear proliferation ring.

Not sure whats up with the italian link, it is a pdf maybe you do not have the right software
http://lxmi.mi.infn.it/~landnet/NMD/chun.pdf that is the link

LKidKyle1985's avatar

p.s. sent the text to you in your fluther comments for you section.

Kraigmo's avatar

If our government treats DPR Korea with respect, then we’ll have nothing to worry about. The problem is there’s too many authoritarian, egocentric bureaucrats and politicians working in the United States. Sure, there’s many evil things about the DPR Korea. But not nearly as many as Bush or Obama would have you believe.

That nation has proven time and time again, even under its eccentric, authoritarian, overbearing leader Chairman Kim Jong-iL, that they mean the USA absolutely no harm at all, if we just treat it at as a world colleague. Our government and schools still deny the massacre our government committed over there. Just because they engage in propaganda and half-truths, doesn’t mean we should. But we do, constantly, just like them.

If we treat them with respect, we’ll have a friendly trading ally.

If we treat them with disrespect, eventually their crazy leadership will sell nukes to an enemy of ours, which they are perfectly capable of, but haven’t done yet.

Mr. Obama, and even moreso Mr. Bush, are just idiot puppets on this issue, taking orders from fake experts in the State Dept, CIA, and Joint Chiefs.

richard444's avatar

Nations in many ways are like people. People sometimes act in irrational ways. North Korea may have come to terms with their irrationality (IE. North Korea’s form of a state that is mostly held together at this time by illegal activity and strong control.) and though these present situations are in some ways unconscious moves,( if you think about it) never the less they want to provoke so as to self destruct. Why? There is nothing else to do. No where to go. The only option is for the six nation to beg them with aid to transform themselves and I think this is a little late and the timing could not have been worse based on the world economy and China is not going to do a thing because they have trouble enough taking care of 1.3 billion people. People should be realistic. Would you want to liove there..

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