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wundayatta's avatar

What do you predict the Hamas leaders in Gaza are thinking and doing? (See details)

Asked by wundayatta (58357 points ) November 16th, 2012

Based on the principle we saw in the US elections where people’s predictions were more accurate than their preferences, I’d like to ask ask you to make a guess about what the Hamas leaders are thinking in Gaza. It doesn’t matter how much you know about the situation. What matters is what you know of human nature.

What are the Hamas goals with the current spate of missile strikes?
Are they targeting specific Israeli targets? Or are they shooting missiles randomly in the direction of Tel Aviv?
Does Hamas believe Israel will invade? Or do they think they can avoid the invasion? If so, how?
Does Hamas believe that Israel will engage in ethnic cleansing in Gaza?
Does Hamas believe they are in a more powerful position now that Egypt is run by a member of the Muslim Brotherhood? Do they think that Israel will not dare engage in a full-fledged war?

So answer as many questions as you feel like, or if you just feel like making a general prediction about this conflict, I am interested.

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25 Answers

JLeslie's avatar

My guess is Hamas believes Israel will invade and engage in ethnic cleansing. I think since Hamas is homocidal and hateful, they project the same onto their enemies. Their fear keeps them going, it feeds their own hate, anxiety, and aggression. I would guess there are some Hamas leaders and followers who do not feel this way, let’s say the more moderate Hamas, if there is such I thing, I hope there is, but they cannot control or really affect the extremists.

Jaxk's avatar

Hamas is more interested in destroying Israel than they are in self preservation. If Israel attacks Palestine, Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood may enter the frey. It will unite the Arab countries and further drive a wedge between Israel and the US. It also takes attention off Iran. In short, I think Hamas wants Israel to engage in a full ground war. A few palestinians being killed is a small price to pay for thier overall objectives.

wundayatta's avatar

@JLeslie so what do you predict Hamas will do?

@Jaxk So you believe Hamas will continue to provoke Israel until there is a ground invasion? Could anything stop that process? Similarly, it seems like you think Hamas believes there are enough Gazans, that the Israelis can’t kill them all?

How many people have to be killed to reach the threshold of “ethnic cleasing?”

josie's avatar

A predictable consequence of an economically and militarily weakened US, with an administration that shows at best ambivalence and at worst disdain towards the Israelis. I don’t think public school History spends much time on what happens when power leaves a vacuum, otherwise there would not be much doubt as to what is going on.

wundayatta's avatar

@josie What do you predict Hamas will do? What do they want?

JLeslie's avatar

@wundayatta I don’t know. I am so not in the mind of people like that it is hard for me to imagine or fathom. I was suprised when Bush went into Iraq for goodness sake, and I am not saying those situations are analogous, but I have a hard time imagining anyone or any group will initiate war. But, then there you are missiles flying, I am incredibly naive on these matters.

I recently saw the documentary Precious Life and it made me realize Palestinians are willing to die to basically save face. Kind of like peer pressure. At least that is how it seemed to me. It’s psychologically too difficult to go against the group and the religion helps them follow along. I believe there are many Palestinians who want peace, but they don’t trust Israelis/Jews. I think for the extreme Hamas (not to be confused with all Palestinians) killing a Jew is nothing, like we are less than human. Although, I do think many many Palestinians feel as I described above, that they must carry the line and follow the pack. I guess they feel they have very little to lose, so why not go to war? The Palestinians feel imprisoned I guess? They must believe life will be very different if they just get rid of Israel.

I feel like everything could magically change if there was a peace treaty. For many years I felt like there would be a time of peace in the middle east, but I think probably I am idealistic, and instead things are about to erupt.

Last night in the moments before I fell asleep I thought to myself if Israel does come under attack and the worst happens I hope America lets all her citizens in. But, I know that sounds very pessimistic on my part. I thought to myself I would let a family stay with me.

I wish zen was here to comment, did you share the Q with him? I worry about him and his family.

Jaxk's avatar

@wundayatta

Israel will not do any ethnic cleansing. They will merely go after Hamas. Not much different than the last time they did it. There will be collateral damage because Hamas likes to hide thier rockets in civilian areas so that civilians will be killed. The more civilians that get killed, the more support Hamas will get, so they do everything possible to insure civilian casualties.

JLeslie's avatar

@Jaxk Of course Israel won’t do any ethnic cleansing! I thought the question was does Hamas believe Israel would do such a thing?

Jaxk's avatar

@JLeslie

That was a response to @wundayatta‘s follow up question.

Qingu's avatar

I think Hamas believes, rightly, that Israel has no intention of ending the military occupation of Palestinians and they believe, rightly, that the status quo is unjust.

They believe, wrongly, that launching rockets indiscriminately into Israeli civilian areas will make the situation better. Maybe they think this will prod Israel into a confrontation, like a ground invasion, which will be good PR and rally Egypt to their side or something.

In any case, they are savages, and if Israel managed to blow up every Hamas operative without harming civilians I would be happy. Unfortunately that’s not possible—and Hamas knows it, in fact their whole strategy entails using Gazan civilians as shields. Which brings me back to the “savages” comment.

flutherother's avatar

I would doubt if Hamas is a coherent military entity right now. The missiles are probably being fired off before Israel destroys them. There is nothing much Hamas can do, its leadership is dead or in hiding. The question is what are Israel’s leaders thinking. They are the people with power in the region. Some new thinking is required to put an end to this recurring horror.

ucme's avatar

What to buy each other for xmas?

woodcutter's avatar

Are the Israelis using drone warfare or are those rocket hits fired from piloted planes? If so then it might appear they are taking a page from Obama’s drone war strategy. Or.. is the CIA doing this for them?
Seems like every time gas prices drop, shit like this get wound up again.

Qingu's avatar

@woodcutter, can you support a single thing you’ve suggested with facts or evidence?

zensky's avatar

@JLeslie Thanks for your concern. We’re fine, but the rockets continue to fall around us. Like the last time round, we’re a little too close for comfort to the events. I’d chime in, but I fear I am not unbiased. Let’s just say that the situation has always been complicated, but I really believe that politics aside, if the Hamas, a terrorist entity yet democratically elected (in Gaza only) were to cease the rocket fire (Qasam, et al, cannot be aimed – you do the math) – Israel would be interested in cease fire. Just as there is quiet with Lebanon and Syria – it is possible to have quiet. Hundreds of random rockets – killing three yesterday – is unacceptable. Even Obama seems to agree. The rest is politics

wundayatta's avatar

@zensky Do you have a prediction about what Hamas and Israel will do? What do you think will actually happen, if forced to say what you think likely?

woodcutter's avatar

@Qingu Um what? Can you fucking read any more college boy? I haven’t fucking suggested shit. Just putting ideas out there in the form of a question. What I have done, apparently ,is blown your little miniskirt up.

too easy

zensky's avatar

@wundayatta It’s hard to say whether Israel will invade Gaza or not – I hope not – but it looks like it’s inevitable. As I write, another rocket slams into a car and the injured folks are being helped out of the wreckage. Lives, injuries and damage aside, just the fear of rockets – those awful sirens – the children living in fear for so many years – it’s hard to imagine. People have had enough – if the air attacks don’t stop the rockets – there will be a ground invasion. I think we’ll know very soon.

Qingu's avatar

@wundayatta, you suggested that Israel is copying Obama’s drone program. Drones pre-date Obama, and Israel has long used aerial surveillance and airstrikes which is all the “drone program” is.

You asked if “the CIA is doing this for them.” There is no evidence to suggest this remotely.

You then suggested that this has something to do with dropping gas prices. This is a ridiculous assertion; why would Israel want to raise gas prices? Gas prices aren’t even that low to begin with. Or would Hamas be behind this? Or Iran? Or maybe the CIA?

And then, when I asked you to support anything you said, you threw a hissy fit. This seems to be a pattern with you. I’m sorry if I come off as harsh, but I have little respect for people who say ridiculous things without evidence.

wundayatta's avatar

Um, @Qingu. Please do not mistake me for @woodcutter. You know I don’t do conservative well. He’s wo. I’m wu. Why can’t fluther read your mind, anyway? ;-)

Qingu's avatar

Bah! Sorry, @wundayatta, it was completely unintentional. :)

woodcutter's avatar

@Qingu You always want us to provide links to back up what we have answered. That is fair enough. But when you ask for a link that would no doubt be impossible due to the fact that such information would be top secret and classified you are asking too much. Reel it back in some. The CIA does not leave evidence usually and they, as you well know, does whatever the hell they want. It would be foolish to think that the CIA and the Israeli intelligence are not in bed together on some things as well as spying on each other. It is a safe assumption that the CIA would have their drones puttering around in that area and also if they have actionable intel that they know the Israelis would like to have, such as a top leader is in a car in Gaza “do you want us to take the shot?” And the Israeli’s are going to say no? Missiles don’t just come from the sky. Someone on the ground has to see a target first. We should not be shocked to know there is CIA everywhere. And you demand proof.

Oh and the gas thing. You are right, hamas has never had anything to do with prices but, the greedy oil Co’s will use such a conflict as an excuse to jack them up. If you drive a car..even a Prius you would have felt this by now. Gas prices where I fill up are about $3.15 a gallon. Beat that.

I see a pattern with you and it is that if any thing is discussed here that put Obama’s name under a shadow you come batshit unraveled, even if it is fact. Fact…even the liberals hate the fact that Obama is using drone warfare to conduct the fight against terror. It really sticks in y’alls craw because in the spirit of fair play and equality, a construct that you base your ideology on, you expect that even in war. You would rather see a team of men go into a hostile situation and take casualties for the sake of fair play than have a remote controlled plane do it and no servicemen are hurt. The fact that these subjects hide behind innocent civilians is something they choose so all collateral damage is on them. Do you really thing a team of spec ops is not going to cause collateral damage? It’s gonna happen anyway, and the use of drone heavy operations is brilliant. But you don’t like it and get all butthurt whenever it is discussed. I have no rspect for your ilk.

Qingu's avatar

I don’t want links necessarily. I want you to explain why you think the things you think.

So just to be clear, you think that the CIA is only involved to the extent that they are normally cooperating with Mossad. You don’t think this is all a plan to raise gas prices. And you understand that drones pre-date Obama. Which makes me wonder why the hell you bothered to post what you posted before, but okay.

By the way, my post had nothing to do with Obama, or my support or lack thereof of Obama’s use of drones. (FYI: I think people freak out way too much about UAV’s, their intelligence gathering capabilities save civilian lives vs. other methods, and I certainly prefer them to boots on the ground.) I don’t know why you spent a paragraph ranting about my supposed hatred of drones.

bkcunningham's avatar

I’m sorry but I have to say that reading, “He’s wo. I’m wu,” is one of the funniest things I’ve seen here in a long time. LMAO. Carry on.

zensky's avatar

@wundayatta and jellies: because of the situation but also the 7–10 (and more) time difference, we’re rarely on at the same time. I didn’t want to comment and run, so to speak, but I am here now for the next hour – so if there are any questions – shoot. Pardon the pun.

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