Do you think the stock market will go down 50% in 2014 and why?

We are due for a correction but 50% is sensational “doom and gloom” I don’t think we’ll see that but you never know. The market is a savage unpredictable beast.

Anything is possible of course, but a 50% drop would be very extreme and unlikely. There are safeguards in place to make this very unlikely. It’s quite possible we will see the market contract this year though.

The market is wound pretty tight…the bull market has been going 54 month with the average being 57 months so we historically should be nearing the end of the ride. Most corrections I have seen have been in the 10–20% range. 50% would be catastrophic and as @gorillapaws said and I agree it would be very unlikely.

Apple will release iPhone 6 this year. More games will come out for PS4 and X BOX 1. A Shit Ton of Blockbusters are going to be released. More smaller craft breweries are opening up each month. Marijuana is strongly being research by economist in several states at the moment… Overall I think there’s too much individualized culture out there for people to not enjoy themselves and spend money.

Of course I’m in lower California so my outlook on life may be a bit different than someone who just endured heavy winter storms…

People will spend money this year.

I think there is something to be said for the contrarian position. The market never seems to do what the so called experts say it is going to do. Witness the mortgage crisis.

The GDP keeps going up and wages for the middle and lower classes have stagnated. That extra money has to go somewhere. Of course the whole economy could eventually tank due to insufficient demand, but that is another story.

No.

There’s no reason it should, in my estimation.

If you can get the ½ notion going good I’ll put my money 90% on high risk.

The top concerns of Americans is unemployment, jobs and the economy. Plus many big U.S Companies are currently reporting poor earnings. Americans are broke (with a >$17 trillion debt), many have no saving, leveraged up to the hilt and the U.S. is borrowing more and printing more money (QE’s) just to keep our heads above water (and keep the stock market inflated). On top of that our bloated Federal Government under the leadership of President Obama wants to continue to grow and spend money that we don’t have.

Would you be surprised if the stock market will goes down 50% (or more) in 2014? Would anyone? It may not happen this year but it will very likely happen in the near future.

Probably not until after the election this fall. There will be all kinds of games played before then to make things look better than they are. But if enough businesses start posting bad quarterly results, then things can snowball.