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SquirrelEStuff's avatar

What are the chances that the US or CIA is responsible for military coup in Turkey?

Asked by SquirrelEStuff (10007points) July 15th, 2016 from iPhone

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16 Answers

ibstubro's avatar

Isn’t the CIA a US organization, and why would they want to destabilize a key ally and NATO member at this critical time?

I say the chances are slim and none.

YARNLADY's avatar

Not this time.

elbanditoroso's avatar

Zero. Shame it seems to be failing, though.

MrGrimm888's avatar

The chances are slim. This time. ... Not a stupid question.
It’s probable that they have operatives there, but they are probably just monitoring the situation. They may have known about before it began. May or may not have had something to do with it failing.Now would be a poor time for yet another rudderless government, and no doubt civil war, or similar conflict, with no end in sight.

Setanta's avatar

I agree with the others that it is highly unlikely that Central Intelligence or any other American agency is involved. I doubt that anyone knew in advance. There are high-ranking members of Turkey’s military who didn’t know. (See the New York Times report which states that the commander of Turkey’s First Army publicly condemned the coup—had he known in advance I’m sure he’d have attempted to stop it.) As has been pointed out, the situation in the middle east, and especially in a NATO country bordering Syria is too critical to be screwing around there.

basstrom188's avatar

No it’s Brussels they will go any length to keep Turkey out of the EU.

janbb's avatar

I know the CIA has backed military coups in South America before but I doubt we were behind this one. I don’t see the advantage to the US of destabilizing Turkey and we immediately came out in support of Erdagon.

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

Zilch. It wouldn’t serve any of our interests at the moment. See @janbb above. Because of the internal threat, Turkey has shut down their airspace, which shut down our air ops over Syria. This benefits Putin, not us. We will probably continue ops from our fleet in the Med and divert resources from bases in Iraq, but this is not optimum.

stanleybmanly's avatar

It’s very unlikely.

ibstubro's avatar

“This benefits Putin, not us.”
@Espiritus_Corvus nails it, IMO.

Putin is likely playing chess to the US checkers.

stanleybmanly's avatar

The coup in Turkey benefits Putin NOT ONE BIT. Putin’s concern is keeping Assad in power. He is depending on the West to keep ISIS busy and is quite willing to allow us to destroy them. To Putin it appears perfectly clear that the brutal strongman model is the thing that works best in the region, and frankly there is not one shred of evidence that he is wrong. He also views it a wise thing to have one dependable client state in a region more vital to his own interests than our own.

stanleybmanly's avatar

Just because ISIS is now occupied with the West, it would be a mistake to forget Russia’s vulnerability to an outfit like ISIS on its Southern border. Any organization appealing to a disgruntled Muslim population will nearly certainly look at Russia’s millions of for opportunities at making mischief in “Godless” Russia.

Setanta's avatar

A couple of good points from Stanley here. Putin doesn’t care about Turkey, except when they shoot down one of his fighter-bombers, and he has already punished them for that. His interest lies in maintaining a relationship with a Russian client state which was long a Soviet client state. He really has done nothing about ISIS, despite all the pony propaganda the FSB puts out. But he certainly does not need anyone stirring up radical Muslims within the Russian Federation. Chechnya’s strongman leader, Ramzan Kadyrov is a Stalin type, and seems to be building a cult of personality which is Stalinesque. There is still a jihadist movement in the north Caucasus region, which is presently quiescent. If Islamic State got them stirred up, there’d be hall to pay, because Putin won’t tolerate that.

Really, a destabilized Turkey does no one any good, and it’s just silly paranoia to suggest that the CIA was involved just because one wishes to always portray the CIA as the source of all evil.

rojo's avatar

I think this is most likely an internal affair. The military is, and has been for some time now, a secular institution as has the Turkish government (which for a while were one in the same) in general until the Erdogan became Prime Minister back in 2003. While not a radical Muslim in the accepted sense of the word, he has angered many Turks by trying to reintroduce religion into what has been a secular state. And, since becoming President two years ago he has place many of his more conservative followers into positions of power within the State.

And, if I had to guess, I would say that both the US and Russia are playing both sides against the other.

sajahet24's avatar

The US undermining another nato member is pretty doubtful as turkey is trying to help us fight daesh

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