General Question

MrGrimm888's avatar

Is there a correlation, between the SOTU adress, and the Dow? (Details)

Asked by MrGrimm888 (19008points) January 30th, 2018

The Dow dropped 300 points. Trump is going to make his address. Is the market concerned about something Trump could screw up?

I’m not a stock market guy… I thought that the stock market was doing well.

Can someone help me understand?

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5 Answers

funkdaddy's avatar

The stock market is doing well, you were right there. There’s a ton of topics that could be discussed, but a few short points.

- The Dow was up 5000 points last year to put the 300 points in perspective.
– The Dow measures 30 companies, total, so it is, by nature, volatile.
– There are a ton of things that can affect perception, Trump’s speech is just one of those (perception affects movement, movement affects pricing, pricing is reflected in the indexes like the Dow)

I’d guess the date marking a year of Trump in office probably has more to do with the change today than the speech itself. Trump’s pro-business policies have been figured in to market prices, it’s a new tax year, and some people will see it as time to cash out their gains.

More importantly, and having a bigger effect I would think, the announcement today by Bezos, Buffet, and Chase regarding changing healthcare is a big, calculated, move. That’s a huge part of the economy, and those are big players who a lot of people look to for advice. That worries anyone holding those stocks.

zenvelo's avatar

Part of yesterday’s sell off was profit taking. A more significant problem was the ongoing weakness of the dollar, which affects interest rates and debt valuations, and also the viability of import business.

The SOTU would not be leading a run up or a sell off; the market usually only reacts to the SOTU the next day if there is a surprise.

KNOWITALL's avatar

Still not 2008.

The stock market crash of 2008 occurred on September 29, 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 777.68 points in intra-day trading. That was the largest point drop in any single day in history. It plummeted because Congress rejected the bank bailout bill.

MrGrimm888's avatar

^I didn’t think it was crashing. It just seemed like a big drop, from where it was.

Thank you all, for your answers. I learned a few things.

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