General Question

jca's avatar

Do you think it's possible that within the next two decades the US will be 50% Hispanic?

Asked by jca (36054points) June 20th, 2009

My father is Spanish, and in a discussion i had the other day with a Hispanic man, he told me “they” (and i did not ask who “they” are) say that within the next 10 or 20 years the US will be 50% Hispanic. Do you think that’s possible? It seems hard to believe.

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41 Answers

fireside's avatar

No, the projections are not for a 50% Hispanic society, but the US Census Bureau says that by 2042 the percentage of non-Hispanic white Americans will be below 50%.

Here are a couple of good articles about the issue:
“According to the US census bureau, the dominance of non-Hispanic white people, who today account for two-thirds of Americans, will be whittled away, falling steadily to less than half in 2042 and 46% by 2050. In the opposite trajectory, those who describe themselves as Hispanic, black, Asian and Native American will increase in proportion from about a third now to 54% by 2050.” Source
“You can see the numbers for yourself on the Census Bureau website. In a spreadsheet titled “Projections of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2008 to 2050,” the bureau forecasts a rise in the number of whites from about 243 million today to 325 million at midcentury – an increase of 82 million. A related spreadsheet gives the percentages: Whites today account for nearly 80 percent of the US population. In 2050, they’ll constitute 74 percent – still a very hefty majority.

So what explains the persistent drumbeat about the impending white minority? A statistical distortion: the exclusion of Hispanic whites. If only non-Hispanic whites are counted, the white population today amounts to 66 percent of the total, and will hit around 46 percent by 2050.

But excluding whites of Hispanic origin from the overall white population makes no more sense than excluding whites of Slavic or Scandinavian origin. “Hispanic” is not a race. It is an ethnic category. As the Census Bureau repeatedly points out, Hispanics can be of any race. In the 2000 census, 48 percent of Hispanics identified themselves as white; Harvard sociologist Orlando Patterson has characterized them as “white in every social sense of this term.” Bottom line: Of the 46.6 million Hispanics in the United States today, at least 22 million are white.” Source

LexWordsmith's avatar

If, by “Hispanic”, you mean people who embody what today we call Hispanic culture, including the speaking of Spanish, i’d estimate that probability as very low, on demographic grounds. (USA official statistics regard such people as “ethnically” hispanic and subdivide them by race.)

If, by “Hispanic”, you mean people who are somehow “racially” hispanic (and that you would need to define in a way that demographers would find persuasive—probably not gonna happen), then i would say “zero” unless there is some sort of disease or toxin that preferentially kills (or renders infertile) non-Hispanics.

filmfann's avatar

In 20 years we will be at 42% Hispanic, and 12% wanna-bes.

tinyfaery's avatar

That pretty much sums up where I live. Los Angeles already has a latino mojority. And you know, what happens in CA usually ends up happening in the rest of the country.

Darwin's avatar

Where I live now is 53% Hispanic, but those claiming that culture are still considered a minority.

Bluefreedom's avatar

I believe we’re already 67.8% Hispanic here in Arizona. We’re doing our best to set the example for the rest of the union.

No, I don’t have a source for my population percentage. It just seems reasonable. I think.

Darwin's avatar

@Bluefreedom – According to the 2000 census, Arizona self-identified as 25.25% Hispanic and 63.82% said White by race. Individual neighborhoods and counties have more or fewer Hispanics, and only 4.55% self-identified as Native American. However, down by Nogales, folks who rated themselves as Hispanic hit between 61 and 100%.

The problem is that Hispanic is not a race, it is an ethnicity so it cuts across racial lines. Also, some folks who look to outsiders to be Hispanic have lived in the southwestern US for generations and consider themselves Americans, not Hispanics.

Urban's avatar

it’s more likely to be asian

Bluefreedom's avatar

@Darwin. I was way off base and I stand completely corrected. I could have sworn we were higher than that in our state. Thanks for posting those statistics and a nice bit of research on your part. Well done and a Great Answer too.

Darwin's avatar

@Bluefreedom – Having lived in Arizona I was also somewhat surprised. However, the percentages really relate very closely to where you live in Arizona.

Bluefreedom's avatar

@Darwin. That’s a very good point. Living in the city of Phoenix, with as big a population as it has, the concentration of Hispanic individuals appears very high to me but it could be even more elevated in other areas of the state.

LexWordsmith's avatar

@tinyfaery : culturally, CA might lead the country, but culture is not the source of the high proportion of Hispanics in SoCal—it’s proximity to the Mexican border, much as with Arizona and Texas. Need to come up with some other mechanism for Illinois and Pennsylvania to follow that lead.

msright1981's avatar

I thought we have a very tight control of how many people come in of each ethnicity to keep them balanced.

LexWordsmith's avatar

@msright1981 : i paraphrase Josh Billings here—“It ain’t what you don’t know that hurts you, it’s what you know that ain’t so.” if, by “balanced”, you mean “in about the same proprtions as existed at about 1950”, or some such thing, there might indeed be such “quotas” in place, but, even setting aside illegal immigration, the various immigrant groups have differing reproductive rates once here, plus, once an anchor person is here legally, that person’s family gets preference of some sort, so, all in all, it’s just not a very simple situation.

Darwin's avatar

@msright1981 and @LexWordsmith – The other thing to consider is that many Hispanics, especially in the Southwest and parts of Florida (Saint Augustine was founded September 8, 1565), have been living in the U.S. since long before there ever was a U.S. as well as before other Europeans settled in the New World (the French tried but weren’t as successful as the Spanish).

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Statistics are unreliable for this question due to the significant number of illegal aliens that do not wish to be counted.

I have no issues whatsoever with America’s racial makeup, whatever that is or what it becomes.

However, the flooding in of aliens that don’t want to play by the rules is nothing less than an illegal occupation.

tinyfaery's avatar

The illegal aliens have never played by the rules. America would still be part of Britian if they did.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Okay @tinyfaery:

If the illegal immigrants want to declare a proper war against the United States ill listen.

Though i’d be worried sick that our current congress and President would do nothing.

Wouldnt want to make ourselves look bad to the ‘World Community’ would we?


filmfann's avatar

@tinyfaery Never mind. Dumber comment has my attention.
@Noel_S_Leitmotiv How’s that?

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

It looked to me like tinyfaery was attempting to compare illegal aliens in the US to americas colonization of America and independence from Britan.

filmfann's avatar

And you think Obama would do nothing?

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

‘Nothing” is an exaggeration.

But tell me, what has Obama done to address the problem sofar?

filmfann's avatar

He has suppressed every violent act of war by illegal aliens so far. oh, thats right… there haven’t been any

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Oh, you dont understand my point.

No, illegal aliens havent properly declared war on the United States.

You say ‘violent acts of war’. So you oppose the acts of illegal aliens only if they are acts of war and violent?

filmfann's avatar

@Noel_S_Leitmotiv Re-read your prior post.
You said: If the illegal immigrants want to declare a proper war against the United States ill listen.
Though i’d be worried sick that our current congress and President would do nothing.

I don’t understand how you got to this, logically.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

tinyfaery said this:

‘The illegal aliens have never played by the rules. America would still be part of Britian if they did.’

I took it as an attempt to compare the more recent infiltration of illegal immigrants into America to the colonization of America and the founding of the US by warring for independence from Britain.

I dont believe there’s a proper comparison to be made here.

America declared it’s independence from Britain.

The illegal immigrants aren’t doing any such thing. But i’d take their doing that just as seriously as what they’re doing now.

filmfann's avatar

Which is….

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Occupying a foriegn country without permission.

filmfann's avatar

This is hardly an occupation.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

Okay, what is it then?

Darwin's avatar

A hobby?

filmfann's avatar


“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.”

I believe in those beautiful words.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

I do to.

This current rash of immigrants arent keeping to the spirit of those beautiful words.

The line says ‘Give me..’. This means a transfer happening with the countrys knowledge and blessing.

Why does everyone forget that there was a legal process put in place to integrate these huddled masses that is being bypassed now?

Its a slap in the face to every immigrant that played by the rules.

filmfann's avatar

Those lines don’t end with “The line forms on the right”.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

You aren’t seriously suggesting that the only immigration legal process is outlined in that verse??

filmfann's avatar

I am saying that we depend on labor from South o’ de Border to farm our crops, to pave our roads and do other dirty work our own people won’t.
I am saying these are very poor people, and we are obese with wealth and plenty.
I am saying these morons who demand all the borders be closed have no concept of the damage it would do to both our economies.
If they are here, their kids need to be educated, and they need to be healthy.
You need to count your blessings, then count theirs.

Noel_S_Leitmotiv's avatar

So you’re condoning an illegal act.

Yes, it would hurt for a while, the shift in labor, but it would be better for us in the long run.

Why close the borders? Just enforce and make more strict the laws regarding the hiring of illegal labor.

I’m not obese.

Darwin's avatar

You all might consider watching this sometime. It is funny but to some degree true.

Pandora's avatar

Not if my kids have anything to do with it. They are both behind the curve on reproducing. LOL

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