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RareDenver's avatar

What's the likelihood of a Falklands War part 2?

Asked by RareDenver (13163points) February 24th, 2010

Do you think the current tensions between the UK and Argentina over the Falklands and the UK’s recent oil drilling activity in the area could escalate to another fully fledged armed conflict?

Summit backs Argentine claim to Falkland Islands

Argentina takes Falklands oil dispute with UK to UN

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13 Answers

Captain_Fantasy's avatar

As long as they have faith in diplomacy, then it should be ok.
It doesn’t sound like they’re shooting at each other yet.

Adirondackwannabe's avatar

I hadn’t been following this. What is the military capabilities of the Argentines?

ucme's avatar

What in an election year? They wouldn’t dream of such a thing.Or would they? Thatcher & her minnions made the most of it last time.Nothing is beyond the machine that is government.They manage to turn most things tits up.So it wouldn’t suprise me at all.

CyanoticWasp's avatar

Highly unlikely.

downtide's avatar

Not a chance.

hiphiphopflipflapflop's avatar

The Falklands are much more heavily garrisoned now than they were before the conflict.

stranger_in_a_strange_land's avatar

Highly unlikely. The UK has a strong garrison on the islands and Argentinas naval capabilities are less than in the early 80s. Argentinas claims are reduced to a tempest in a teacup, the UK may have to station more naval assets there to prevent harassment of the oil exploration, but that is about all Agentina is capable of.

lloydbird's avatar

Rare.. Denver.

mattbrowne's avatar

Less than 1% over the next 10 years.

Mat74UK's avatar

The Argies wouldn’t get anywhere near with the defences on the isles now.

CyanoticWasp's avatar

I want to say that my prediction isn’t based on military capability or lack thereof. I don’t think that there’s popular support in Argentina for such an offensive—and I believe that Argentina generally runs by democratic principles these days, which it has not always done—nor do I think that the British would welcome the “opportunity” to prove their defensive and long-range sea-borne capabilities (again).

I think that saber-rattling is a common national tactic with most nations at one point or another, and I guess we’ve come to that point again with the Brits and Argentines. But I think that both sides want to find an honorable way of backing down from what would be a ruinous fight for both.

The_Idler's avatar

Don’t forget the Tories are getting in soon…

Cameron could actually be Thatcter II.

Maybe he will privatize the NHS, deregulate healthcare, enshrine employment agencies as the next great saviour of the working classes and incentivize…. hmm there’s nothing left to incentivize.

Oh yeah, and Falklands II

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