Social Question

talljasperman's avatar

Greece votes no. What happens next?

Asked by talljasperman (21858points) July 5th, 2015

The no vote is in the lead.

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

17 Answers

ZEPHYRA's avatar

Nothing. It will all drag on as before.

elbanditoroso's avatar

This is a VERY GOOD thing.

First, Greece has (once again) declared its independence. From a political point of view, the Greek government is now longer a vassal state of the EU and a colony of Germany.

Second, it will (with luck) lead to the dissolution of the EU. The EU was a bad idea 30 years ago, and it hasn’t improved with age. Generally speaking, the EU has robbed each of its constituent countries of their judicial, patent, property, and other (formerly local) schemes to a vanilla-flavored scheme. It didn’t work.

Third, it will lead to England pulling out of the EU in 2017. (It was partially gone anyway).

Fourth, with a 60% winning percentage, Tsipras has no incentive to make a bad deal with Merkel.

Fifth, Merkel’s hegemonistic strategy has failed. Her bluff has been called. The best thing she can do is resign. She singlehandedly did more to exacerbate the Greece situation for the last 3 years than any other person.

Sixth, and probably the most important – the concept of economic growth through austerity as an economic strategy has been shown as bankrupt (pun intended). It didn’t work in the US, it didn’t work in Japan, and it didn’t work in Greece. Cutting your way to growth doesn’t work.

So my heart is with the Greek people who are going to suffer at the hands of Europe. But in the long term, this is good for Greece and very long term, if it leads to the dissolution of the EU, it is good for Europe.

stanleybmanly's avatar

The rich run in and snatch up all the assets at fire sale prices. Greece is reduced to third world status, while the taxpayers of Europe are saddled with writing off the billions in loans. THE RICH GET RICHER -always.

Pachy's avatar

We can speculate, but all we really know is exactly what this headline says:

Greece enters uncharted territory after referendum ‘no’ vote

kritiper's avatar

The splatter. It’s what usually happens when shit hits a fan.

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

Renegotiation.

@elbanditoroso I agree with your first sentence wholeheartedly. The rest was an excellent analysis of the situation. I’m not sure if I agree yet with your opinion of the detrimental effects of the EU versus the future benefits.

” Generally speaking, the EU has robbed each of its constituent countries of their judicial, patent, property, and other… ”

You forgot the British “Bangers.” Poor Brits, they had to give up the original Banger because of the contents wouldn’t meet with EU food standards. This still sticks in the common Brit’s craw—for what is Mash without Bangers?

elbanditoroso's avatar

@Espiritus_Corvus – Bangers are still available – all all places, San Francisco, California. I had dinner at an Irish pub is San Fran last week, and had some truly excellent bangers and mash.

The EU doesn’t control California, yet.

sahID's avatar

While the Greek economy faces some uncertain times in the next few years, in the long run I think Greece will be better off. Ideally Greece needs to leave the EU politically as well as economically.

This is also a win for the rest of the EU member nations because it sends a message to Germany that there are limits to how much bullying other nations will tolerate. In other words, I see Greece as telling Germany that “the German way or no way” is no longer acceptable and Chancellor Merkel’s hegemonic governing style does not fly outside of her national borders.

@Espiritus_Corvus Wot? The EU forced the Brits to give up Bangers? Yikes. What’s next—the French being forced to give up Coq Au Van? Perish the thought.

elbanditoroso's avatar

@sahID – 100% agree – that’s what I have been saying for years. (and in a question on Fluther last week).

Germany is not Europe. They tried that once.

Weren’t the Scots forced to outlaw haggis?

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

@elbanditoroso & @sahID I know, I know! I have to make a 4,000 mile round trip to Philadelphia for a decent steak sandwich, already!

@gailcalled Glad to see you’re still on the job. I’m for giving him points for pronunciation, though.

gailcalled's avatar

@Espiritus_Corvus:—“Vin” has that lovely French nasal sound; “van” is not quite the same, since you articulate the end “n” in English.But the waiter will probably bring you the chicken and not pigs’ knuckles.

ucme's avatar

Plates smash on floor

Pachy's avatar

Try to listen to news reported by BBC World News or other overseas media. You’ll hear better discussions and news.

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

If I were Greek and young and looking toward sixty years of severe austerity imposed by foreign banks, I’d definitely vote no. What choice would I have? I would prefer that my country resume the Drachma, let the economy free fall to collapse, and go through ten tough years rather than sixty as fat carcass for my European brothers to pick clean.

Sixty years, three generations, would destroy the morale and character of the society, change it into country of beggars and thieves with no ambition, no work ethic, similar to what the East German worker became under 41 years of Communist rule: People in a gray, hopeless world shuffling down the streets like broken men who’ve just been released from years in prison. It took another twenty years, another generation, to bring the East Germans back into the fold and up to speed. And it was painful. I heard the same refrain over and over again when I was in the East Bloc: “They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.”

When a people know that life will not improve no matter what they do or how hard they strive, they just go through the motions of surviving. They do what it takes, legal or illegal, to feed and house their families. And their sons and daughters learn to do the same. Soon, it becomes the culture and all strength is bled from them and soon there is no one in living who can remember anything different. A society of serfs.

It’s much better for the Greeks to just cut loose and let the chips fall where they may. It will be painful, but it won’t destroy who they are like sixty years of economic slavery would.

It will be only a matter of a few years before the banks will be back begging to invest, just like those credit card apps showing up in the mail back in the U.S. Zero interest the first year—please, please take our money! Look at Iceland, Brazil, Argentina. They all went bust, refused the first severe offers and threats of punishing isolation, they suffered, they held out for more reasonable offers, and they are now coming back strong—and it didn’t take sixty years. Now watch Greece. Greece is being sensible.

There is a house high above a fishing village on Corfu. It’s not very big. It looks even smaller on the inside because of the two foot-thick walls. But it’s beautiful with a little enclosed courtyard protecting the knarled olive tree in it’s center, with roses and ancient grapevines climbing up it’s walls. There’s an olive tree in the center. It looks like a ceramic sculpture from a distance with it’s arched doorways and domed roof. Some time after WWII, somebody put in indoor plumbing and electricity. That blue on the Greek flag? That’s the exact color of the Aegean Sea six hundred feet below as seen from the doorway. The white? That’s the blinding whitewash on these organic abodes, inside and out.

In the ‘60s it sold for $8,500. A few years ago, you couldn’t touch this place for less than a quarter of a million. Right now it could be had for one tenth that. But the taxes, which are now enforced, will kill you. If you are Greek, the taxes aren’t as severe. This is to prevent the world from buying up Greece and make them a country of permanent renters and paupers, in competition for their own land against Irish, Japanese, German and Scandinavian real estate investment groups—backed by the very same banks that are now hoping to enslave the country.

Individuals will come to Greece as they always have, because it is a beautiful place with a rich history and a proud culture. And they will spend money and make investments, and retire there in the Greek sun. Under the watchful eye of the government, they will help bring Greece back—a lot faster than the sixty years of austerity as proposed by these voracious foreign banks.

Espiritus_Corvus's avatar

Then there’s the fact that Germany never paid it’s debts, which is one of the reasons why this twentieth century poster child for debt forgiveness is the economic powerhouse it is today. And now they want to put the screws to Greece?

Since his successful book, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” the Frenchman Thomas Piketty has been considered one of the most influential economists in the world. His argument for the redistribution of income and wealth launched a worldwide discussion.

In a forceful interview with German newspaper Die Zeit, the star economist Thomas Piketty calls for a major conference on debt. He states that Germany, in particular, should not withhold help from Greece. This interview has been translated from the original German by Gavin Schalliol.

ZEIT: But shouldn’t they repay their debts?

Piketty: My book recounts the history of income and wealth, including that of nations. What struck me while I was writing is that Germany is really the single best example of a country that, throughout its history, has never repaid its external debt. Neither after the First nor the Second World War. However, it has frequently made other nations pay up, such as after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, when it demanded massive reparations from France and indeed received them. The French state suffered for decades under this debt. The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.

ZEIT: But surely we can’t draw the conclusion that we can do no better today?

Piketty: When I hear the Germans say that they maintain a very moral stance about debt and strongly believe that debts must be repaid, then I think: what a huge joke! Germany is the country that has never repaid its debts. It has no standing to lecture other nations.

_Full Interview…

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