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ibstubro's avatar

Big picture, what do you think the chances are that Judge Merrick Garland will eventually be confirmed to the Supreme Court? [Details]?

Asked by ibstubro (18765points) March 19th, 2016

By big picture, I ask that you take into account not only the current situation of President Obama vs the naysayers during a Presidential election, but the events that will unfold before there is a new sitting President.

The Republican candidate will be known after 7–21-16.
The Democratic candidate will be known after 7–28-16.
The election results will be known in November.
The new President will be inaugurated 1–20-17.

Any of those events could be a game changer.

Then there’s what the new President chooses to do.
Trump’s not a Republican, nor particularly conservative. Given the things that would be on President Trump’s plate, I could see him saying “You already got a guy [Merrick]! So vote!” That would suck up to Congressional Democrats and flip the bird at the Republican establishment.

Same for Hillary? Why not just say, _“I was elected to continue the Democratic legacy of the past 8 years and I see no better candidate at this time than Merrick.” Again, maximum political leverage.

Sorry so long. I’ve given this a lot of thought.

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9 Answers

Jaxk's avatar

Given that Hilary is the likely Democratic candidate and Trump is the likely Republican. I don’t see those as changing much. The election in Nov. howeve, will have an impact. Republicans are already talking about a strategy where if Hilary is elected they may immediately move to confirm Garland. If Hilary is elected Obama may immediately move to withdraw Garlands nomination anticipating a much more liberal nominee from Hilary. It seems it will be a race to see who moves first. I would expect it will be Obama since it’s easier for one person to shift rather than 54 senators. Of course if Trump is elected I expect the senate to wait and see how it plays out hoping that they can influence Trump to pick someone more conservative. I think the game plan has already been set, we’re just waiting for the results to see which card to play. Regardless of the winner, it seems unlikely Garland will be confirmed.

Jaxk's avatar

I should add that if Hilary is elected and if the senate actually beats Obama to the punch and votes to confirm Gardland before Obama can withdraw his name, you may see Democrats voting against confirmation and Republicans voting for it. Quite a turn of events.

zenvelo's avatar

It may very well depend on the forecast of the Republican control of the Senate in October, or if they lose control in November, the lame duck session might see McConnell trying to cut losses.

The GOP obstinacy is not carrying well with independents and swing voters. Rand Paul is facing a tough re-election, Rubio has announced he will fade away. And when cases before the Supreme Court right now get a tied vote, Garland being a moderate might seem very attractive.

JLeslie's avatar

I was wondering if there has ever been a nomination that was shut down, and then later the person was nominated again and confirmed?

My guess is the debate gets it’s act together and holds hearing and confirms Garland. I saw some polls saying the majority of the country wants the Republicans to not keep stalling.

dappled_leaves's avatar

He will be confirmed while Obama is in office, after a lengthy period of whining and foot-stamping. It’s always best to ignore tantrums until they stop.

The Republicans have NO reason to block the nomination, and have in fact already said that he would be a reasonable choice. All they accomplish by stalling is to make their candidates less attractive to voters come November.

JLeslie's avatar

Typo: That should be senate up there on my answer, not debate WTH?

Jaxk's avatar

Unfortunately, the Republicans have, once again, painted themselves into a corner with no plausible way out. If they continue to refuse a vote, they risk the ire of all those that don’t think that is fair. If they give him a vote, they confirm the feelings of most Trump and Cruz supporters that they have no backbone and won’t keep thier promises. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Is there a spine in Washington?

ibstubro's avatar

There seems to be plenty if spine. An excess of spleen.

Is there any common sense in Washington? Any sense of self preservation?

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