General Question

phaedryx's avatar

How likely is it that the Republican 2012 presidential candidate will be white, protestant, and male?

Asked by phaedryx (6126points) May 30th, 2011

That is, do Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, etc. have a real shot?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

31 Answers

zenvelo's avatar

I’d say it’s about 95% certain.

You exclude Romney on the basis of being Mormon and not traditional Protestant? I don’t, but a lot of evangelicals will.

Cain is on a vanity trip, he really has nothing to offer. Bachman is a real threat but will make enough gaffes to ruin her chances. Palin doesn’t have the stamina.

mazingerz88's avatar

@zenvelo Bachman is a real threat? To whom? Really? : )

If only Mcain is not incapacitated by his age and seemingly directionless in stance these days he is the serious threat to anyone, regardless of religion.

Uberwench's avatar

512%

If Cain actually tries to stay in it, he’ll be dragged down by race issues even as he tries to avoid them (both his own statements about Muslims and statements made by his overzealous supporters that he would be the first “really black” president). It won’t be Romney because he supported universal healthcare as governor of Massachusetts, and it won’t be Bachmann because she was born in Canada and so not eligible.

zenvelo's avatar

@mazingerz88 The Tea Party in the Midwest really likes Bachman. She is seen as the cute but smarter more mature version of Sarah Palin. I don’t think she is electable, but she could definitely mix up the Republican nomination, and she has enough backers to win primaries if the vote is split amongst the non-Tea Party wing.

mazingerz88's avatar

@zenvelo Gotcha. It’s true. Winning anything in politics is mostly about perception and charisma. I just think Bachman has plenty of videos her opponent can easily wield against her. But that’s just my solo perception. : )

Plucky's avatar

Extremely likely.

Ron_C's avatar

There is probably a 98% chance that the GOP candidate will be as you described. I also suspect that he will be very rich. Republicans seem to have a very hard time finding a woman that is not stupid, crazy, or a combination of both. The also seem to have a number of blacks that don’t like other black people and it is hard to find a Hispanic candidate that isn’t a right wing of Cuban decent. that thinks more about revenge with Castro than about improving this country

JLeslie's avatar

I would guess Romney has a real chance, so as someine said above, it deoends if you count Mormom as Protestan? I count it as Christian, but I don’t think the Evangelicals do.

I think @Ron_C summed it up pretty well.

I think Jeb Bush would have had a great chance if his brother was not criticised so harshly at this point for the deficit and for the wars.

@zenvelo Michele Bachmann is an idiot.

marinelife's avatar

I believe that Romney is not electable in the general election because he’s Mormon, but he may take the party nomination. Still, I would say it is better than 90% that the Republican nominee will be white, protestant and male.

Ron_C's avatar

@JLeslie thanks. I agree about Jeb Bush, I think that was why his father was crying. The screw up became president and forever blackened the family name. I don’t care if Jeb is the returned Christ, I wouldn’t vote for another Bush for any office.

JLeslie's avatar

@Ron_C I think Jeb would have a real chance in 2016 if Obama wins a second term.

Ron_C's avatar

@JLeslie you may be right but I can’t express the disdain that I hold for the Bush family. I really really don’t want another one in federal office. I don’t care if he runs for something on the state level but considering the sociopathic make up of the family, we cannot afford to give them additional influence on a National level.

zenvelo's avatar

@JLeslie I don’t disagree with you regarding Bachmann. But that has not been seen as a disqualifier from consideration for the Republican nomination.

JLeslie's avatar

@zenvelo LOL. I think she is even too much of an idiot for the Republicans to actually vote her into the number one spot during the primaries. At least 50% of Republicans do have a brain in their head, I always hope they come out and vote. But, you never know.

tinyfaery's avatar

All signs point to yes. However, the Republican machine isn’t stupid. They know they need to move away from the idea that they are a party of old, white men.

quarkquarkquark's avatar

Bachmann is seen more and more as a contender; there is a real chance she could win the nomination. Herman Cain is a joke, as is Sarah Palin (although you never know with her). Romney is ahead in the polls, and he’s not Protestant—but the other presumed frontrunner, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, is in fact an Evangelical Christian of the white-dude variety.

JLeslie's avatar

Above I said I count Mormon as Christian, but I don’t think the Evangalicals do. If a Mormon President was elected I would not refer to him as a Christian, even though I firmly believe he is one. If he were Catholic, I also would not refer to him as a Christian, even though I firmly believe he is one. In both cases I also would not consider them Protestant (well, of course the Catholic isn’t). It is because the mainstream Christian looks at Mormons as outsiders, so I don’t think we can say they are part of a group when the group seemingly rejects them outright? Not sure.

One thing I have said about Romney in the past is I like that he is a religious minority.

Ron_C's avatar

@JLeslie the president is not commonly referred or described by his religion. For instance, Kennedy was not described as a Catholic president except by the most vitriolic of evangelical Christians. Nixon was not described as a protestant president, crooks have no denomination. Neither do inadequate presidents like Carter or the Bush’s.

Religious tests are strictly forbidden by the Constitution and the candidates religion has no bearing on their electability. Actually Romney would have been a good choice if he had stayed the same person that was the governor of Massachusetts. Now that he has turned radically to the right, he’s is no longer acceptable to me and most other progressives.

JLeslie's avatar

@Ron_C I completely agree Romney would have been a great choice if he had stayed more independent and towards the center as he had been nearly his entire political life. I also agree the religion of the President should have no bearing on anything. But, for sure Kennedy is thought of as a Catholic President. Not that he ran the country as a Catholic, but we all know he was, and some Protestants certainly did voice they did not like he was a Catholic. Anything outside of being Protestant Christian is noticed, and an issue for a portion of the Christians, not all of course. That is part of the reason this question is asked I think.

Here is a question I asked a while back that is related.

quarkquarkquark's avatar

@Ron_C, I would add that Kennedy’s religion was a major issue in his campaign, as Romney’s promises to be in his.

Ron_C's avatar

@JLeslie and @quarkquarkquark I would also add that Kennedy was probably a pretty good Catholic if you believe the stories about his numerous acts of unprotected sex. You know, Catholics are not only against abortion, they are also against contraception.

quarkquarkquark's avatar

I don’t get it

JLeslie's avatar

Don’t get what?

quarkquarkquark's avatar

@Ron_C‘s last remark. What am I missing?

zenvelo's avatar

@quarkquarkquark He was trying to make a snarky comment about JFK having a lot of affairs even though he was known as a Catholic. If he is implying JFK fathered a lot of children, that’s a new one to me.

Ron_C's avatar

@zenvelo maybe you are right, there are no “known” JFK offspring. Maybe he wasn’t such a good catholic after all.

I like to add a snarky comment, occasionally. Just for fun.

JLeslie's avatar

@Ron_C Maybe he had more of a brain in his head than Schwartzanegger and John Edwards on the matter. Or, at least maybe the women did.

zenvelo's avatar

So after tonight’s “debate”, Bachman is a real threat, got the biggest bump tonight. And most pundits say she is smarter and better on her feet than Palin, and also much better at fund raising.

zenvelo's avatar

@Ron_C Snarky comments are always fun.

Ron_C's avatar

@PluckyDog “And most pundits say she is smarter and better on her feet than Palin, and also much better at fund raising.”

Not a very high bar.

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