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wundayatta's avatar

What does a victory mean in a near three-way tie?

Asked by wundayatta (58663points) March 13th, 2012

Santorum won the primaries in Alabama and Mississippi today, but not by much. He, Gingrich and Romney each got around a third of the vote. It doesn’t seem like much of a win to me. Does it give Santorum any significant momentum? What does it mean for the rest of the primaries?

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17 Answers

filmfann's avatar

If Santorum won, then Gingrich didn’t, and that is huge. Gingrich was banking on winning the South, so if he can’t get a clear win in these two states, he may have to pull out, which would throw most of his potential votes to Santorum.
A small battle’s slight victory turns the tide of the war.

JLeslie's avatar

I’m kind of starting to enjoy the primaries. Seems like total chaos. I guess maybe the Republicans thought the same about Hillary and Obama duking it out a few years ago.

@filmfann That makes sense. But, I just saw Gingrich sounding like he thinks he is still going to win. Delusional.

CaptainHarley's avatar

Looks like the Republicans are headed for a brokered convention. I predict that Ron Paul will tell all his delegates to vote for Romney, and that Romney in return will offer Ron Paul the Vice-Presidency, or some other high office.

filmfann's avatar

@JLeslie The difference between the Obama/Clinton battle and todays Republican primaries is that 4 years ago the democratic voters were excited about their picks.
Today, Republicans are looking at the lesser of 3 evils who aren’t Romney.

JLeslie's avatar

@filmfann Are you sure? What I mean is, are you sure the Republicans don’t like the choices? I know democrats think the candidates are all a mess, but I don’t have a handle on what the Republicans are thinking.

ETpro's avatar

It’s a big win in perception. It shakes the foundations of Mitt’s inevitability argument. It’s a big win from Santorum in momentum. But in terms of catching up in delegate count, it was almost meaningless. In fact, if Romney sweeps Hawaii and American Samoa, Romney may emerge with a net gain in delegates as the dawn breaks over the East Coast of the US mainland.

ucme's avatar

In this case it’s like witnessing 3 drunk village idiots attempting to catch a butterfly in a thimble whilst a hurricane blows around their sorry arseholes.
In other words, an utterly futile excercise….fighting a losing battle.

MollyMcGuire's avatar

If it means you get all of the delegates it’s huge.

Cruiser's avatar

The win most certainly gives Santorum a huge shot in the arm with actual genuine enthusiasm from his followers. Right now it is horse race that is Romney’s to lose as he has a large lead with delegates collected to date a just a descent showing next week by him could technically make it a but numerically impossible for any of the other candidates to get enough delegates to officially win the nomination.

Unfortunately for us I feel this is where the Super Pacs impact will be the greatest and it will be beyond a feeding frenzy over these remaining delegates. And if anyone is disgusted by this impact of super pacs you ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait till Obama’s SP’s come out with their big guns. hooo boy!

LuckyGuy's avatar

Maybe the GOP will offer a Mint and Sanitarium slate in November.
Would that resonate with party members?

Cruiser's avatar

@LuckyGuy Reading between the lines ala what Gingrich searing sentiments were towards Romney and his kid glove words of appreciation for Santorum I would bet those two are in cahoots and would not be surprised to see them on the ticket together IF Santorum can continue to Kick Ass on the campaign trail.

wundayatta's avatar

@MollyMcGuire It does not mean they get all the delegates. This year, delegates are being handed out on a proportional basis. That’s why Romney is able to stay so far ahead in the delegate counts.

@Cruiser from what I hear, Obama’s superpac fundraising is behind Romneys by a considerable margin because he did not endorse his superpac for a long time. Also, he is not running against anyone in the primaries. It remains to be seen if he can catch up in the general election.

Cruiser's avatar

@wundayatta Maybe it is only fair then seeing how Obama spent more than double the money as McCain did to buy the Presidency in 2008.

wundayatta's avatar

@Cruiser Fair? What does fair have to do with it?

ETpro's avatar

@MollyMcGuire As it turned out, Santorum eked out a win in a virtual 3-way time in two states that apportion delegates proportionate to vote count, and Romney scored very solid wins in Hawaii and American Samoa; meaning that Romney actually gained on Santorum in total delegates won. He gained 6 delegates on Santorum.

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