General Question

crazyguy's avatar

Do you think Battery Day was a dud?

Asked by crazyguy (1029points) 3 weeks ago

The hype surrounding Tesla’s Battery Day was nothing short of insane. Battery Day was supposed to be much earlier in the year; the further it was pushed out, the more the hype seemed to grow, It reached feverish pitch on the Monday of this week – until Musk damped it with a tweet about how the announcements made on Battery Day will take time to implement. Since then the hype has vanished and Tesla stock has dropped over 15%.

I thought that Battery Day more than lived up to its promise. I was shocked when I saw the after-hours trading in TSLA, which took the price down close to 10%!

Did I miss something?

Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0

17 Answers

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Yup you missed that nothing happened with all the . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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HYPE !

Jeruba's avatar

Wasn’t paying any attention.

RedDeerGuy1's avatar

I was waiting for the Fluther update. I’m still waiting.

elbanditoroso's avatar

Musk was in jail. Sitting in his cell. Arrested for assault and battery.

gorillapaws's avatar

I cashed out my TSLA stock a long time ago (for a very nice gain at the time). I’m still bullish on the company, but the stock price is still way too high for me to consider reinvesting in such a volatile beast (I’m actually expecting a meltdown of the market followed by a long and painful recovery). However, if I was an investor, I would be very happy with the Battery Day announcements. TSLA is maturing and focusing on refinements that minimize waste in their processes, reductions in capex for expansions and volumetric improvements in the efficiencies of their existing facilities, and significant incremental improvements in their products and designs. The structural battery concept alone was revolutionary without appearing radical or fantastical (which is how I currently feel about autonomy).

That maturity is really encouraging from an investor standpoint and they’re transitioning out of “startup mode” into the early stages of becoming a global titan in the automotive sector. It reminds me a little of how everyone was laughing at Apple’s iPhone because it didn’t have a keyboard and Apple didn’t know how to make phones, just MP3 players…and the rest was history. Tesla has no completion for as far as my eyes can see.

crazyguy's avatar

@gorillapaws I agree with the maturity aspects. It was only recently that you would not put Tesla and maturity in the same sentence. But then, even now, nobody puts my name and maturity in the same sentence…

gorilla, I love the way you think. Except, if you gave up on Tesla stock because of a little volatility, I can help you out a bit.

Kardamom's avatar

I guess so, because I didn’t know anything about it, and have still heard nothing, other than this post.

crazyguy's avatar

@Kardamom I guess you are not a stock market investor, or if you are, you have been too busy to turn on your computer the last 2–3 days.

gorillapaws's avatar

@crazyguy So I generally just invest in mutual funds, but when I invest in individual companies, I like to invest in companies that I believe the market is undervaluing and have a huge potential upside. I bought TSLA before the Model 3 announcement and more than 2x my return in less than 6 months before cashing out. I again reinvested in spring 2019 when it dropped to something like $170–180 range and again sold (WAY too early) after realizing a greater than 2x gain in less than a year. Not long after, the share price went gangbusters and I 100% did not see it coming, especially with COVID-19 going on. I would have predicted a collapse back to where I bought it.

So it’s not that I lost faith, it’s just that I don’t like playing chicken with the market, trying to anticipate when the valuation models become too insane to justify (when they already price in everything going smoothly for the next decade + autonomy being solved), especially with such insane macroeconomic forces and irrational investing in the broad market at play.

If you’re looking for the next TSLA, you might want to check out Desktop Metal. I’m eyeing their IPO closely. That’s not investment advice btw.

Caravanfan's avatar

@gorillapaws I didn’t take you for such a capitalist! :-)

gorillapaws's avatar

@Caravanfan Lol. What would you say about the future value of a company that slashed it’s R&D budget to zero and used 100% of it’s profits to perform acquisitions and do stock buybacks with massive bonuses to the executive team? It’s not that I’m against capitalism, it’s that I think Reganomics has turned America into a country following a similar “business plan.” Social welfare programs are not charity, they’re like R&D for a company, they’re listed on the balance sheet as an expense, but they are absolutely vital to long term growth. I think the vast majority of industries should be private/publicly traded companies in a well-regulated capital system (Democratic Socialism).

IMO competition and innovation are the “secret sauce” that makes capitalism work. It’s basically a replication of natural selection and genetic mutation respectively—a very effective (and time-tested) model.

Caravanfan's avatar

@gorillapaws Believe it or not, I mostly agree with you. (I won’t derail the fan by debating minor details of your post)

crazyguy's avatar

@gorillapaws TSLA has been difficult. Generally, I buy and hold about 80% of my position in an equity. With TSLA it has averaged under 50%!

I still have a position in TSLA. I did not predict the shellacking the stock took this week.

So my options trades, which is most of the trading I do these days, went horribly wrong. For instance, I bought calls on Sep 22 (during the regular trading session, so before Battery Day) with a strike price of $520 at a cost of $4.50 p[er share. These calls had an expiration date of 9/25, which means they would be worthless after 9/25. So yesterday I dumped them for $0.25 per share.

However, I sold puts and calls some time ago. The puts I sold are losing money, but the short calls are in the money.

If you ever think of becoming more of a capitalist/gambler, let me know.

JLeslie's avatar

Never heard of it.

crazyguy's avatar

@Caravanfan You say “capitalist” with feeling (I sense the feeling is negative). Until BLM and ANTIFA take over, we shall hopefully stay a capitalistic nation; starting from grad school (when I was an avowed socialist) my transition to a full-fledged capitalist was completed in about 2017.

I feel the capitalistic system provides a great deal of incentive to perform. Unlike any other. Of course, the devil is in the details. Capitalism allowed to run wild will invariably lead to excesses (like 1929, 1999–2000, 2007–2010, and 2020); however, the opposite is just as true. True socialism with little or no incentive for excellence will invariably lead to disaster (like the Soviet Union, China, Cuba and Venezuela). Bernie’s preferred system is Democratic Socialism which would retain some aspects of capitalism. Given our litigious society, I do not think we can control exclusions from national health. Therefore, I oppose Medicare for All, or any similar plan. In fact, I think (although I have not thought this out in detail) that Medicare could use major modifications.

Caravanfan's avatar

@crazyguy Um…no. You have completely and utterly misread me. And my comments weren’t directed toward you, they were directed towards Gorilla, and was an inside joke between us. That’s why I used the little font and why he said “lol”.

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