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wundayatta's avatar

Santorum may win a few states today, but Romney has more than twice as many delegates as he does. Can Romney be overtaken?

Asked by wundayatta (58663points) March 6th, 2012

It’s 9:30 EST on Super Tuesday as I write this, and it looks like Santorum will win in three or so states. Google has a map of the primary results to date if you want to check what’s going on currently.

The map shows Romney with 273 delegates and Santorum with 108. I don’t see how Santorum can catch up. Do you think he will stay in the race to the end? Do you think he might want to try to parlay this into a vice presidential nomination? Is he just setting himself up for four or eight years from now? Do you see any way Santorum could overcome Romney’s lead?

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7 Answers

JLeslie's avatar

I don’t see how Santorum can take the lead. I guess maybe if Newts numbers go to Santorum there is a small chance?

I really hope if Mitt is the winner that he does not take a right winger as his running mate. Didn’t McCain already make that mistake? Or, I guess I should say I simply think it would be a bad idea. The right wing is not going to vote for Obama, so why care about catering to them? Moderate Republicans and independents are who Mitt would have to win over.

zenvelo's avatar

If Santorum strikes a chord with Orange County, it could come down to California and Santorum would have enough to at least cause a brokered convention. But I think Romney has too much of a lead to be overtaken.

filmfann's avatar

All Santorum needs is for Gingrich to drop out.
But Gingrich is too spiteful to do that, even though he would be hurting Romney by doing so.

Jaxk's avatar

It seems unlikely. I would think that the best he can do realistically is to keep Romney from getting the win before the convention. Most of the pundits seem to think that if Gingrich drops out Santorum would be the beneficiary of his votes. The assumption is that the Gingrich votes are actually anti-Romney votes. I’m not convinced that’s true. Gingrich has some strong support and I would assume it would go to Santorum.

All three of these guys have very similar positions on the major issues. All three have very different negatives. Any one of them will fit the objective which is to defeat Obama. But Romney seems the best bet for achieving that objective. And I think that is the general consensus of the party. It going to be hard for Santorum to overcome that whether Gingrich stays in or not.

ETpro's avatar

From an increasingly 20/20 hindsight view, it certainly doesn’t look like this race is over. In the rest of this month, only Illinois looks favorable for Mitt Romney. He will have a hard time wining Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Louisiana. Hawaii is up for grabs. Romney has the money, but not the momentum.

MollyMcGuire's avatar

Probably not until November.

tedd's avatar

Unlikely, but still possible (that’s why the other guys are still in the race).

The only feasible scenario where I could see someone overtaking Romney, would be if Gingrich dropped out and threw his support entirely behind Santorum.. and Gingriches supporters entirely (or at least mostly) went to Santorum.

The combined might of the conservative wing of the party could possibly overturn Romney.

But this isn’t likely to happen unless Gingrich totally bombs out in the Mississippi and Alabama votes next week.

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