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josie's avatar

Might not Donald Trump be on to something with his "different" approach to Russia?

Asked by josie (30931points) December 14th, 2016

For centuries, there has been conflict between the West and Russia and the issue is the Russian ambition to have a warm water port.
Nearly every conflict between Russian East, and the West has something to do with the West attempting to thwart this Russian ambition, and their desire to achieve it.
The Russian move in Afghanistan in the late 70s, their recent moves in Syria, and Ukraine, are all about having a warm water port.
Not saying anybody should give these folks what they want, but after centuries of expensive and futile conflict, why not look into a different approach?
It could easily wind up being a circumstance where the Russians would challenge the Chinese in the South China Sea, and not us.
Could be worse.

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17 Answers

ragingloli's avatar

Putin and the Russians will play Drumpf like a fiddle.
That is why they got him elected in the first place.

MrGrimm888's avatar

Both Russia, and China are in expansion mode. It would be wisest if they allied together against the US. Then they could be even bigger bullies,and take what they want.

I don’t see Trump as inactive in such problems. I see the opposite. When pushed about North Korea he practically hinted at assassination. He likes to sound macho. He doesn’t seem to care/understand the ramifications of his words.

If the world approaches him.about the fairness of what’s going on in the South China Sea (which they will ) I see him recklessly throwing lots of tough guy talk about.

I haven’t seen any examples of Trump talking to others as if they are on equal ground. It seems likely that he would only add agitation to any problem. His inflammatory rhetoric has people in his own country about as mad as they’ve been at each other since the Civil War…Why would he usher peace elsewhere?

He told Hillary he would have her jailed,on national television. He seems to prefer to be very aggressive. Such a personality doesn’t seem like it would do well in the diplomacy department.

China against Russia? It’s possible, but war benefits nobody really. I suppose I can’t say I’d rather that than the US get further involved, but that’s unlikely.

The US has been slowly making good on their “Asian Pivot.” Unless something changes, ⅔s of the US Navy will be in the Pacific. That’s no coincidence. It’s pretty transparent to China, hints their huge increase in military spending, and multiple hacks where military technology was stolen from the US. They want our strengths and weaknesses.

Moves have been slow and deliberate, but all signs point to China and the US thinking that they will be in conflict soon.

Russia seems to be prepared to fight the world if need be. There recent development of submarine nuclear bomb drones tells us that they have no intention of having their nuclear arsenal affected by our missile defense systems. The OP is correct about the warm water ports. But Russia could have its eyes on many targets.

These are dangerous times.

So far Trump’s “different ” way of doing things doesn’t give me a sense of hope for peace. Of hope for anything, for that matter.

flo's avatar

Bull in a china shop.

rojo's avatar

My thoughts is that perhaps we are setting up for an Occidental – Oriental conflict with a US/Russia partnership on one side. Partners of necessity of course but with the two you force China into an East – West two-front war scenario.

The plus for the US would be that being closer Russia would be the recipient of the brunt of the conflict; at least in terms of a land based invasion force and the plus for Russia would be that if you assume the war is ultimately going to happen having the US as a partner means that the Chinese have to split their firepower lobbing some of their missiles at America, perhaps even the majority of them while throwing their military might at the Russians.

MrGrimm888's avatar

I’m not sure Russia would be interested in war with China. For the same reason China doesn’t want regime change in North Korea. Refugees…

Talk about destabilizing a region. Millions of Chinese citizens would scatter when Russian tanks rolled in, (no doubt careless of their targets) and Russian air power would pound their cities to dust.

All of the most recent reports I’ve read by military advisors have collectively agreed that Russia is a formidable force. They have the best tanks, and the most. They have a decent airforce too, and it’s gaining experience in Syria. Worst of all, their leaders don’t seem to care about civilian casualties, or things considered war crimes.

China has a decent military, and they are improving it as fast as they can. But they don’t match Russian technology, or training. Although China enjoys some difficult terrain, it’s nothing compared to Russia. The Chinese would have logistics problems with supply chains. Much like Napoleon, and Hitler found out…

In addition, Russia seems more ready to use nuclear weapons than most countries. The Chinese could hope their proximity to Russia would prevent a full nuclear volley , but I’m not sure it would prevent them from wiping out some of their southern cities.

China is nuclear capable as well, but they don’t seem to be as invested in nukes as anything but a deterrent. And their land grabbing ways suggest that they value usable land, so I doubt they would nuke land they could take in a conflict.

One of Russia’s top military advisors allegedly recommended that Russian nukes should target Yellowstone Park in the US, to activate the super volcano under it (during the anexation of Crimea, if the US got involved. )

I’ve never heard the Chinese speak so callused. They’ve threatened military action, but aren’t hungry for war.

Worst case scenario, they both come to a nuclear exchange meant for mutual destruction. The world would be very unpleasant after that…

We should all hope for peace, and stability…

rojo's avatar

@MrGrimm888 China has a decent military, and they are improving it as fast as they can. But they don’t match Russian technology, or training All the more reason to hit them now if you are Russia and foresee a conflict as inevitable.

MrGrimm888's avatar

^Strategically speaking that has an advantage. But the US has thrown it’s hat into the ring too. Russia would be wise to wait and see what we do first. A war between America and China would weaken both countries without Russia lifting a finger.

Again I mention refugees. I think part of the reason Putin is stirring the shit in Syria is that he realizes the continued flow of refugees into Europe will destabilize that region as well. If he has his eyes on Eastern Europe, it would be nice to keep the area flustered.

Unless he intended to vaporize all of China,he’d be in a worse scenario than Europe. There are many more people in China. Lots of them are controlled by the government, not patriotic citizens, ready to fight to the last man. The weaker provinces in China would be geographically closer,and easier first targets for a Russian land invasion. China already deals with “domestic terrorists” in some of those provinces. They would surely run,rather than fight.

It wouldn’t benefit either much. Plus the US might come to China’s aid if Russia attacked them. That would be the best way for America to engage Russia. Use China’s boots,and our air power….

rojo's avatar

^^^But a Russian/US alliance against China? Would that not address these problems?

I guess it would depend upon who you consider the bigger threat. At this time Russia is a bigger military threat but China the bigger economic one to the US. Where are the priorities?

MrGrimm888's avatar

^Well. I hope the priority is peace.

But the world would benefit from all three countries toning it down.

flo's avatar

@cazzie Thanks.

I forgot the quotation marks

KNOWITALL's avatar

Both Putin & Trump are businessmen, they both have a slightly cruel selfish streak & like eachother. I have hopes that these two men will come up with a plan to help their people because their ego’s demand it.

cazzie's avatar

@KNOWITALL Putin was KGB. Don’t kid yourself.

MrGrimm888's avatar

^Yes I think the comparison ends at ego, and narcissism….

Jeruba's avatar

My current hypothesis is that the Russians made Trump an offer he couldn’t refuse: play nice with us, and we will support your campaign in the ways we know best; defy us and we will use this leverage against you: ????

I think they must be holding something on him, something big, much bigger than anything that has come out already, probably much bigger than scandalous infidelities or shady business dealings, which would surprise no one. I can’t guess what it might be, but it’s probably real.

It stands to reason that they would dig up whatever they can on anyone they think they can influence—and then use it in a way best calculated to serve their ends: reveal in order to impair or impede, or conceal in order to manipulate and own. I think we’ve seen one of each on the national level in the past few months, and probably many more that don’t loom so large.

Time may or may not tell—it doesn’t always—but it might point and whisper.

cazzie's avatar

@Jeruba The word in banking circles is that Trump has been bank rolled by Russian banks for a few years now because he lost his rating with US banks due to his bankruptcies and bad reputation. He has since met with top US banks and has agreed to repeal the restrictions passed on them because of the 2008 crash. His appointments are VERY telling and we will see this unveiled and we will be told to open up and take it in our mouths and swallow.

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