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crazyguy's avatar

Which of the swing states will Trump win?

Asked by crazyguy (1121points) 1 month ago

Last time I checked, there were 12 perennial swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump won Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Hillary won the remaining 5. For 2020, based on https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/, Biden is favored in ALL the swing states plus he is favored to win Republican Arizona. In addition Biden is close in Texas and Georgia. Does Trump have any chance at all?

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17 Answers

SergeantQueen's avatar

I never paid attention to polls. For Wisconsin, it says ABC/ Washington post called 777 people in Wisconsin and MN and that’s where the numbers are coming from. The other pollster said they interviewed 800 people. That’s not really enough for me to put any weight into what they are saying. Especially if they aren’t all planning on actually voting?

I mean, it also depends on where they are calling these voters, which it doesn’t say as far as I read. Are they calling all the big cities? or reaching out to the more rural areas as well. And where are they even getting the phone numbers? These questions apply to any polling, regardless of whether or not Trump is ahead or Biden is ahead. How are they doing it?

I was thinking Wisconsin would go red this year like we did the last election. Lots of people here are trying to recall Governor Evers so that’s where I thought we were going. The polls say otherwise, so I guess we will see on election night.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

The sample size of 800 for all voters in Wisconsin gives a 4% error factor ( just checked it on sample sizer).

crazyguy's avatar

@SergeantQueen After 2016, I have also lost faith in polls, especially the national poll. The popularity poll is meaningless since we use the electoral college.

I assume the polled group is selected to be representative of the voting population, but I cannot explain why the Rasmussen poll invariably is way to the right of the other polls.

I think, just like in 2016, the probability of a Trump win is well under 50%.

filmfann's avatar

Trump is depending on Georgia and its neighbors.

crazyguy's avatar

@SergeantQueen I think the 2020 election is going to hinge on two issues:

1. Law and order.
2. Covid-19.

On 1, I do not see the Democrats being unable to undo the harm they suffered from their early silence on the riots and looting.

On 2, I fully expect success in two Phase 3 vaccine trials: Moderna and Pfizer. Once we have positive results, the actual availability of the vaccine is inconsequential.

In short I expect Trump to not only hold all the states he won in 2016, but also to add to his electoral college total.

kritiper's avatar

None of them. His goose is cooked.

ANef_is_Enuf's avatar

I live in Ohio and the support for Trump seems pretty significant. Normally it’s a good mix around me, but there are lawn signs in every direction for Trump and that’s a big change from last election.

crazyguy's avatar

@kritiper I feel for you, man. I just finished watching the Biden town hall. If Trump does not score a TKO in the first ten minutes of the first debate, I’ll be very, very surprised.

crazyguy's avatar

@ANef_is_Enuf Sometimes, looking at the overwhelming polling numbers for Biden, I do doubt my own sixth sense. However, then, I remind myself that Biden is being kept well-hidden. Today, I watched his town hall on CNN and realized what is going to happen. The man doesn’t even know if his handlers want him to support or oppose fracking. On the Green New Deal, he is more confused than anybody I have ever met.

LostInParadise's avatar

FiveThirtyeight has Trump ahead in Ohio and Iowa. North Carolina is listed as a tossup. Scroll toward the bottom of the page.

I am not going to call who wins, but I do predict the following:

Biden will do better than Clinton. He will get a majority of the popular vote and win all the states that Clinton won plus at least one other state.

The vote will be very close again, determined by a few thousand votes in swing states.

Trump will take an early lead, because there are so many Democrats voting by mail, whose votes will only be counted after election day.

Trump will get a large majority of white male non-college graduates. Biden will do well among nearly all other demographics.

According to this site, Biden has a bare majority of electoral votes, but I would not put money on it.

Darth_Algar's avatar

@crazyguy

The American people aren’t going to forget the 200,000 of their friends, family and neighbors dead while Glorious Leader golfed and denounced the virus as a hoax to make him look bad.

RocketGuy's avatar

@Darth_Algar – don’t forget the families of Veterans, who were dissed by Trump. My mom was so pissed that she called me to insist that we vote for Biden.

crazyguy's avatar

@RocketGuy Let’s see who Biden has dissed: All Blacks and the police for starters.

crazyguy's avatar

@Darth_Algar Given what is happening currently in Europe, Japan, South Korea, perhaps what Trump did or didn’t do was not all bad.

Tropical_Willie's avatar

Let me guess – - Trump didn’t do too bad having 25 % of the COVID-19 deaths with 4% of the population. So if “Europe, Japan, South Korea” quadruple the death rate for the next year Trump did a good job. SMH

People are dying; you and Trump are patting yourselves on the back. He has a train wreck; Trump and you can’t see it.

New Trump motto, “Dead is good, were first in the world for COVID-19.”

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