Why are covid-19 cases rising world wide?

Because of stupid people.

People think they are entitled to live life the way they want to and refuse to follow guidelines that would keep them safe.

I think you said the main point yourself: Don’t refer to pecent-wise statistics. Look at the quantity and the graphs over time. The site at that link has a good world overview, but look not just at the graph but the numbers per day shown under each. Some countries are still fine but some have recent new surges, which is alarming.

I think the reason is probably due to some relaxation of measures taken. For example, Italy had its outbreak under control after serious lockdowns, but then eased measures in May.

That is, despite measures having worked in some places, the disease’s ability to spread in populations is still about the same, so unless measures are maintained, any population that’s not being very careful is vulnerable to even a single asymptomatic contagious person.

Taiwan has had about 500 cases total. since the beginning of the pandemic. The US has more people than that dying every day, and about 50,000 new confirmed infections every day.

Comparing them is beyond ridiculous.

From the outset of this disease, it has been apparent that management of the plague would hinge to a great extent on the rational judgement of the great majority of the populations involved. That fact alone sealed the issue for me. I don’t know about the world, but as far as I was concerned, any population capable of elevating Trump to the Presidency is by definition emancipated from the shackles of rational behavior. The run on toilet paper was another clue as to what should be expected regarding rational judgement at large. And looming above it all was the prospect of our President leading by example. Why the rest of you haven’t locked yourselves in caves or vaults by now mystifies me.

@stanleybmanly The question says “world wide” and had stats from all over the world. Your answer clrifies your intent: Trump-bashing.

@Call_Me_Jay Taiwan had a lot fewer cases than the US. Its population is less than 10% of the US’s and they have one major international airport. The reason I included Taiwan in the comparison, is that they have experienced a huge spike in cases.

@Zaku Your answer illustrates my point exactly. It is virtually impossible to convince an entire population of any country to conytinue behaving in a non-intuitive manner for many, many months.

@chyna I agree with you. But, I do not blame anybody in dpoin what comes naturally, instead of continuing to behave in a non-intuitive fashion for, what is beginning to feel as, FOREVER.

@crazyguy once again you are quick to equate the truth about the fool as proof of hatred or bashing. You can call it hatred if you choose. I am merely stating that those choosing to follow the fool’s example in leadership should expect the rewards he has showered upon himself. I am unwilling to speculate on the rest of the world. The fact that we remain in the lead in the death race is just another trophy in the Trump case. Those tombstones have nothing to do with any “hatred” or “bashing” on my part, do they?

they have experienced a huge spike in cases.

You seem confused. Taiwan has had about 500 cases total during the entire pandemic. Only 27 since September 1st.

If you want to make an honest comparison, try infections per 100,000 population.

Taiwan
2 per 100,000 population

USA
2,200 per 100,000.

Again, it’s ridiculous to compare them.

Because those countries have started to open up again, plus people are getting careless.

@stanleybmanly This is it. Welcome to my personal IGNORE list since Fluther doesn’t provide one.

@Call_Me_Jay You can either keep arguing about Taiwan. Or you can answer the broad question.

@ragingloli Which is what the US is doing also. This virus is tough. See https://news.yahoo.com/thousands-protest-anti-coronavirus-restrictions-110536171.html

It’s called the 2nd wave. It was predicted months ago that the 2nd wave would hit most nations in the fall. People went back to normal just as there are fewer things that can be done outdoors and more indoor gatherings increase.

The answer is not a mystery. To fight a pandemic you have to limit its opportunity to spread:
—Test, test, test
—When you find infected people, you quarantine them
—Also you trace their contacts and test those people

Countries that performed have a much lower incidence of the disease. Taiwan never had a pandemic. South Korea was hit hard early, but responded intelligently and lost only a few hundred people.

The US is going to have an extended pandemic and long economic disaster thanks to people who fight against the well-known necessary steps to tamp down an outbreak.

It’s exactly like a chain reaction with a bunch of mousetraps and Ping-Pong balls. The more people that get the bug, the more people are exposed to it and the more people get it and so on.

@Pandora So the recent surge is not a surprise and should not alarm anybody because it was foreseen? Keep in mind that most states experiencing the surge have not seen cold temperatures yet.

@Call_Me_Jay I have genuine confusion about contact tracing. In the recent Rose Garden super spreader event, how can you tell if Trump infected anybody else, or if Trump was infected by somebody else?

Almost all contact tracing that I have read about hits a dead spot sooner or later where you cannot be sure where the last person on the identified chain got infected.

@crazyguy must you persist in hurting my feelings? You know how delicate I am.

People get lax. Numbers go down, they feel safer, or they get tired of being vigilant. Then numbers go back up. The denominator really does matter a lot when you look at the numbers. When looking at Taiwan I tell people their total population is similar to Florida (I live in Florida).

I don’t think calling it a second wave really makes sense, but I’m not the person who decides these things. Flu has a natural seasonal rotation. There is flu all year, but we see near to nothing in the off season. It comes in waves, having very low numbers of cases and then gets very high during flu season.

Covid seems to have no seasonality from what I can tell. The only thing that slows it is human beings specifically taking actions to prevent it from spreading.

I do realize there could be a big spike in the winter months though, but maybe since people tend to hibernate more in the winter that won’t happen.

Is there still restrictions for air travel from the UK and Asia to the US?

I have genuine confusion about contact tracing. In the recent Rose Garden super spreader event, how can you tell if Trump infected anybody else, or if Trump was infected by somebody else?

The point of contact tracing is to find possibly infected people and stop them from spreading it further. It is not to assign blame.

Almost all contact tracing that I have read about hits a dead spot sooner or later where you cannot be sure where the last person on the identified chain got infected.

Nobody claims it determines the source and destination of every single infection.

You can stop with the straw men and fake concern.

Good article about why contact tracing might stop multiple large clusters. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/?fbclid=IwAR0ddabMjwogaPHhGOkeTmAwlKwKoNnWjsi-iu0Ql7EXFBadXLLbRR8UxzM

what @Caravanfan said

@Call_Me_Jay “You can stop with the straw men and fake concern.” I know we disagree on some issues. However, to paint my genuine confusion about a single issue with the wide paintbrush of your own making seems a little extreme and downright nasty.

If you cannot, and do not want to, discuss an issue with me, let me know, and I will promptly stop. However, please do not insult my intelligence and curiosity.

By the way, you are not exactly an expert in contact tracing. How can I tell? You were not able to answer my questions.

Because we keep fooling ourselves into thinking “normal” is right around the corner?

The moment anything starts to go back to normal, cases rise. That’s not a coincidence.

As I see it, we have two options: 1) we allow everything to go back to normal, huge numbers of people get the disease and we stop it eventually through herd immunity. This means many people will die. This is the “omelet” model (as in ‘you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs’). 2) We social distance and lockdown for the next several years until the disease is all but eradicated (or until a vaccine comes).

Both of these options suck majorly. But I’m pretty pessimistic as of late.

@JLeslie That link is an awesome read. I was an Atlantic subscriber at one time, when I had more time and eagerness to read. I have since realized The Atlantic is as liberal as any other media source, perhaps a little more objective than CNN. However, their writing is always superb. And in this particular piece about the dispersion coefficient, the writing is nothing short of awesome. They have taken a very complicated subject and boiled it down to a few key points:

1. R0 is important; but even more important may be the dispersion coefficient, k.
2. k measures the dispersion of contagiousness, in other words, the tendency to cause super-spreader events.
3. Forward contact tracing is not very useful in identifying future clusters.
4. Backward contact tracing is more useful in identifying past clusters. Once a cluster is found, forward contact tracing can be carried out from that cluster.
5. An approach, centered on preventing clusters, is more useful than wholesale lockdowns. Japan never had a lockdown, just like Sweden. Sweden did ban indoor gatherings of more than 50, and that ban is still in effect. Japan used voluntary co-operation in closing down movie theaters and the like.

I would recommend everybody with a sincere interest in contact tracing to read the article.

@Demosthenes I would strongly recommend reading and digesting the rather long Atlantic article that @JLeslie posted a link to.

@crazyguy Glad you liked it. The problem in America is the alt-right is insanely against contact tracing in all forms and they have influence over more than just their crazy subgroup.

@JLeslie I honestly do not know what people mean by contact tracing. My pretty layperson’s procedure for contact tracing of a positive person would be:

1. Determine who exactly the person had a minimum of 10–15 minute contact with.
2. Test all those people.
3. If any of those people test positive, repeat for that person, and so on until the chain breaks.

From what I understand few chains can be traced back to the original carrier. Per the article you posted, it may be more useful to find clusters rather than individual contacts.

By the way you blame the alt-right for opposing contact tracing. I do not oppose contact tracing. However, I would like a better understanding of what exactly is meant by contact tracing. Also, any contact tracing must include a question: ”Did you attend the protests?”

@crazyguy From everything so far I would never call you alt-right.

One of my (former) close friends is totally brainwashed by the alt-right messaging from Q and other bad players. She is terrified of any contact tracing. She would never answer a question about where she has been or who she has had contact with. She believes Bill Gates wants to track us everywhere we go.

Other countries are using a phone app to track people so they know to alert people if that person has been near covid positive people. I can try to find a YouTube. In America we have the ability on our phones, it was put in our smart phones a few months ago in an update, but as far as I know it isn’t being used in the US. You have to enable it for it to be on and download an app.

In Florida we traced 150 cases back to one nightclub in a weekend. Another 16 cases back to one night at a different bar. That’s when DeSantis closed down indoor at bars. We had a group of cases among farm workers. Thankfully some came in for testing or treatment and answered where they had been, and then health officials helped with more rules about distancing in buses that transport them and officials were on TV reassuring them nobody at testing centers ask anything about legal status. All of these discoveries of superspreaders were from questioning people who were sick and narrowing where they likely caught it.

@JLeslie Then why did Cuomo instruct contact tracers in NY to not ask if a positive had attended any protests – see
https://www.businessinsider.com/nyc-contact-tracers-not-asking-people-attend-george-floyd-protest-2020-6

@crazyguy It says proactively asking. By the way, I was watching Fox News right before Trump’s Mount Rushmore rally and a NYC doctor was saying that they had not seen upticks from protesting, probably because more protesters were wearing masks, then the host of the show quickly changed the topic. People are probably asked where they have been. Don’t get me wrong, I would want to know if the protests were causing a lot of spread, Probably, some people did catch covid at a protest, but it seems that is was not very significant.

I think my governor really believed in contact tracing in the beginning and wanted to use it full force, but I don’t know how much they are doing now. The virus got out of hand in Florida. My governor was publishing all the data per person who was positive in the state and whether they had traveled and where. They obviously were contacting everyone and asking questions and people were answering. Here is an example of that if you are curious. You can skip down to page 27 to see the line detail. https://www.floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data---daily-report-2020-03-31-1742.pdf DeSantis was a believer in the South Korea model to test and trace. I think it turned out to be too difficult.

@JLeslie The problem with contact tracing is the variable incubation period. That makes it hard to tell who infected who. For instance the latest case of a super spreader event in the Rose Garden, how would you determine who the original source was. Was it Hope Hicks or was it Donald Trump? How do you tell?

Thanks for the link. As I am sure you have noticed there is little or no information on “contact with a confirmed case”.

You are right: my link does use the word proactively. As if it would be encroaching on somebody’s privacy to ask what I think is a vital question. Because of this coddling attitude, we shall never know what impact the protests had on the increase in cases in the mid-June to mid-August time frame. I am aware of just one study, which was performed by a bunch of economists. Given the fact that a rather small ceremony in the Rose Garden resulted in 9–10 infections, it is mind-boggling that no serious efforts have been made to determine the spread from the protests. Keep in mind the protests had upwards of 15–24 million people, many of whom were not wearing masks. And also keep in mind that the average age of covid-19 patients started a fairly steep decline in mid-June.

@crazyguy I think the majority of people at BLM protests had on masks. That is what I observed. The average of covid cases in Florida went way down when they opened bars. I don’t know if it matters who infected who at the rose garden. The point was close contact for prolonged time, no mask, people got sick.

@JLeslie Your own link (the Atlantic) convinced me that covid-19 transmission is made up of super spreaders primarily. The average R0 is less important than the dispersion coefficient (k). I cannot believe that out of 15–26 million people who participated in the protests, there were no super spreaders. And if there were just a few among the speakers, there is a distinct possibility of hundreds, if not thousands of cases.

@crazyguy The superspreader still needs to get close enough and shed enough virus on others to infect people. If the rose garden was a superspreader person, it probably would have been much worse if the event had been inside. It probably would have been much fewer people if the superspreader individual had had on a mask. I am not completely discounting your point though, there very well could have a been a few superspreaders in the protests, but I have seen what is shown on Fox about protests and what my republican friends pass around (unmasked rioters) compared to the photos and videos that Democrats are seeing (crowds of people walking with masks and smaller protests where there is social distancing) and it’s all cherry picked. I can tell you for sure the protests by gun carrying white men to open the state didn’t have anyone giving a damn about distancing or masks.

It doesn’t matter how many protesters are super spreaders. It’s the dummies assembled to worship the fool who are going to get the attention from the White House press corps, with the sort of bad publicity no political campaign could buy or invent. It wouldn’t matter if every run of the mill BLM sympathizer dropped dead on the spot as long as the fool is busy promoting contagion in the White House for all the world to witness.

If the rose garden was a superspreader person, it probably would have been much worse if the event had been inside.

It was inside, too. The Covid party included a reception inside afterwards, Here’s a collection of photos shared by the White House . It appears masks were not allowed.

@Call_Me_Jay That’s interesting. So, that indicates that the person initially sick was likely not present at this inside gathering, and narrows down who was sick first. He/she may be one of the key people who sickens large numbers of people as described in my article. Was Hope Hicks at the meeting inside?

@JLeslie I sense from you the same vibes I experience from my daughter: “You better not pin anything on BLM!” Do you really in your heart agree with them or are you just a little afraid?

@Call_Me_Jay Interesting pictures. Obviously no regard for masks and social distancing.

Didn’t some BLM protest rallies also take place indoors?

@JLeslie I have a feeling that the outdoors portion of the event probably led to more infections. My assumption is that the super spreader was Trump, and he was speaking. The people who tested positive were primarily sitting in the first or second row and they were pretty close to center.

The one thing that does not support my theory is that there was adequate distance between the speaker and others.

One other possible theory is that the spread took place partially indoors and partially outdoors and that there was no super spreader.

@crazyguy After seeing those photos on the link provided I think Trump was not the superspreader. I doubt he was contagious at that time. Those photos were after the outdoor event and most people in the room don’t have the virus.

I’m fine criticizing BLM when they do something I disagree with. I find Republicans are pinning all sorts of things on BLM that are untrue.

^I counted 5 that were publicly noted as testing positive.

@chyna Thanks for doing that. I don’t have them all memorized. I thought they were all in the front rows of the outdoor event. Maybe I have that information wrong. The judge and her entire family didn’t get sick and they were there inside. Plus, people not there got sick, but maybe they had been close the president at a different time during the day.

So, do they still think Trump got sick from Hope?

I don’t know if they know who had it first. But the link that @call me jay posted tells who all has the virus. I have heard the judge has already had it, but I don’t know that for sure.

@chyna Oh interesting! So, the judge might have immunity.

@crazyguy I didn’t say it shouldn’t alarm anyone, just that it was foreseen. It’s the nature of the pandemics.. If anything it means people need to start being more diligent about following safe practices. Cold weather isn’t the only reason either. Fall tends to bring about bad weather period. Rain for instance and children are back in school and even if they are asymptomatic they can now spread it to adults.. It’s flu season also, so those who catch the flu and are recovering will get hit harder by COVID or have a better chance of getting COVID because their immune system is weakened. I’m sure there is a long string of reasons for 2nd waves but I’m not an Epidemiologist. You asked why was it rising, and I answered your question.

Actually a rise in reported cases is not the same thing. In controlled environments (ships, prisons) the percent was about 5 times less than what the press was reporting for the general population. Why? Because a person who is sick is noticeable and the one not sick or who recoverd is only discovered later. It is in the math

@JLeslie and @chyna The mantra of “Test and trace” is being proved false by this outbreak. How do you determine for sure who gave it to whom? And by all the reports I have seen, the judge caught covid-19 in “late summer” and recovered. She was tested before her White House appearance and she was negative.

@LogicHead Interesting.

@crazyguy Tracing is used to get everyone possibly infected into quarantine or tested to prevent more spread.

@JLeslie Please walk me through the steps. Something similar to:

Trump.
1. Tested positive on the night of Oct 1.
2. Had contact with many people (I guess they can all be tracked) between Sep 26 and 28, when he probably got infected.
How exactly do you determine who gave him the infection? Especially if you have more than one positive among the people he had interaction with?

I live in Europe. They got overconfident about their ability to control the first wave. They also continued to allow free movement within European states and many still went on vacation during the summer as a result. Also after first wave people immediately went back to socialising like before thinking it will just disappear. Also the face mask to date is not strictly implemented. Their attitude is quite relaxed. They do not fully want to restrict people apart from work from home. Some European countries like Scandinavian ones and Holland think it is better for some people to get it to improve human immunity. Also only people that are really sick get tested. There are lots walking around with it that are not visibly sick. So statistics will always be lower than reality. Reality is we cannot live in isolation forever. We have to go out to work and human contact is essential for human existence. We either need a vaccine or let the weak die and the strong reproduce and create a stronger population.

@chinchin31 The funny thing is that what you are describing is exactly what happened, and is still happening, in the US. And Trump catches all the blame!

@crazyguy Why do you think I’m trying to track one person who gave it to Trump? It’s tracking everyone who might be infected to stop them from infecting others. Let’s say Trump’s incubation period was 3 days, but other people won’t show illness for 6 days. They don’t know they were sick yet. Contact tracing is to prevent spread not to blame people, even though I know some people might be looking to blame. The greater good is really the point of the contact tracing to prevent people in the future from getting sick.

@JLeslie I used Trump as an example. My point is that “test and trace” has become a mantra that nobody really understands. I am trying to understand the tracing part of it, I think I understand the testing part.

@crazyguy You get a positive result so a tracer calls you and asks where you have been in the last 14 days. If you say you were at McDonald’s on Main Street 5 days ago, and 20 other people say the same, then maybe there is an employee there who is a superspreader. They can test all employees, and stop them from spreading to more. If they have credit card sales they could theoretically call those people and warn them to be tested or quarantine, or tell the public.

Like when we had large outbreaks at bars here it was reported in the news, and people knew if they had been there to be tested. We had a gas station here close for a few days because a couple of employees were sick and the local news let us know. The large Florida based chain supermarket here puts out a notification of stores who had a covid employee.

If we were using tracer apps on our phone, we could receive a warning we had been in a hot spot.

I think it’s South Korea that has green, yellow and red on their app for status. Restaurants check your app to make sure you are green before dining inside. It might be a different country. America won’t go for an app though.

The point is to halt the spread.

And therein lies the reason we are more or less doomed to squirm pending the arrival of vaccinations.

@JLeslie I think I understand how you can find super spreader locations, and possibly super spreaders. What if there are just onesies and twosomes at various places and various times? Does tracing help in those cases?

@crazyguy It just depends on how accurate the information is from the sick person and how many people they were in contact with. Sometimes I only interact with one other person all week. If I become sick, I know it’s probably her I got sick from, or only her I might have given it to. If I get sick the tracer could call her and then she knows she was exposed.

Because of the exponential quality of the spread of the virus, every time you stop one transmission, you might actually be stopping hundreds or thousands that would have happened over the next few weeks.

Imagine the Rose Garden event was just a group of people in a park. The people who are no sick had no idea for days that they had been exposed. Instead of 30 people sick now it could easily be 90, and in two weeks 270 or more with the nature of the virus. If any of the people in a chain infect more than 3 people, let’s say it’s 20, because they went to a 50 person wedding and interacted directly with 20 of them, then that number jumps.

The Rose Garden event everyone there is aware of the exposure, but typically there isn’t nationwide knowledge of specific cases, usually you would need contact tracers questioning and alerting people who were exposed.

The average person doesn’t understand the math (I realize you do) they don’t think down the line over time how big the number gets.

Just think about flu, we easily have 10–40 million cases of flu a year and that has a much shorter incubation time, and flattens people on their back once symptoms start, and we have some immunity in the population for some strains, all making it less contagious. Covid would be like wildfire without the quarantining, distancing and masks. Part of that is alerting people they were exposed before they even feel sick so they stop interacting with others.

@JLeslie Thanks for your answer. Here is a link to the most complete step-by-step procedure that I have been able to dig up: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/expert-answers/covid-19-contact-tracing/faq-20488330

If you read through that you will see how contact tracing is supposed to work. Generally, contact tracing focus is on a two-day period on either side of a positive test. All close contacts are requested to take a test and self-isolate. Mind you, no tracing of the activities of the close contacts is called for. So if a husband got infected by the positive within two days of the positive being identified, his wife and children are not investigated. He is asked to self-isolate; but his family is not. I realize contact tracing is expensive, especially without the help of phone apps; however, I think it is important to realize the limitations, and pushing the test-and-trace mantra as a panacea. It is not.

@crazyguy Oh, I agree there are limitations. It’s imperfect for sure. In America we can only hope to curb the spread. Too many people won’t behave. They think they have more freedom by ignoring the virus when it is the other way around.

Other countries keep the covid cases low enough that they can aim for preventing spread altogether, or very very minimal numbers.